534 Rockview Dr · Holley, NY 14470

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1995 Good condition 4,356 sqft lot $55/sqft · 9% above area Est $73k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this exceptionally clean and modern 3-bedroom, 2 full bath mobile home located in the desirable Heron Hills Community. This beautifully maintained home features an open floor plan with cathedral ceilings that create a bright and spacious feel throughout. The large eat-in kitchen offers plenty of cabinet and counter space and comes complete with all appliances included. The primary suite features a private on-suite bathroom with walk-in shower and double vanities for added comfort and convenience. First-floor laundry makes everyday living easy, while central air keeps the home comfortable year-round. Relax and enjoy the spacious enclosed Florida Room overlooking the covered

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Large eat-in kitchen
• Cathedral ceilings

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE ON-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• DOUBLE VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease fee applies
• HOA & community: Land lease

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Single-story; Existing / resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Covered porch; Porch; Patio; Enclosed porch / sunroom (Florida room); Shed(s) / storage; Propane tank (leased); Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Generator
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Cathedral ceilings; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Bath in primary bedroom; Main-level primary suite; Programmable thermostat; Accessible bedroom; Low-threshold shower; No stairs (single-level); Accessible approach with ramp; Accessible doors and entrance
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Accessible utilities

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 4.4% in Holley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#705 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Holley Central School District (town): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #505 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.13%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,161
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: 9.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
283 Sunset Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (0%)	11mo	$47,500	$33	70
211 Sunset Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	1mo	$45,000	$29	69
537 Rockview Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (+12%)	7mo	$94,000	$58	64
155 Trinity Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+4%)	13mo	$55,000	$36	61
291 Sunset Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-1%)	18mo	$70,000	$49	59
299 Sunset Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+8%)	10mo	$50,100	$32	53
525 Rockview Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,612 (+11%)	19mo	$66,000	$41	53
4694 Hall Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-8%)	15mo	$170,000	$126	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $13,336
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $45,473
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14470

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $960/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $674

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 1319-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $79,900 Active 1319-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $960 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,155 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$195/yr (+$16/mo · 20.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$960
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,148
• − Management: −$1,148
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $3,897
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$935
• After-tax cash flow: $4,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home in Heron Hills Community is move-in ready with good condition and potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and durability
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances comfort and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and durability ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances comfort and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614610
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,177
• Composite: 35.13/100
• National rank: #5013
• State rank: #505 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holley

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #705
• US rank: #13281

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,765

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,123 people
• By 2030: 37,648 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 34,432 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 31,487 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 26,544 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 22,251 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.8% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.80%
• Current HPI: 287.9167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $79,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $960 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.