104 E Vermont St · Cambria, IL 62918

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 749 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 1932 6,000 sqft lot $113/sqft · at area comps Est $89k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking to make your mark on a new home? This charming 2 bed 1 bath home is ready for some paint and a new owner. Kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances. Enjoy the front porch or the nice wrap around deck overlooking a nice size yard.

Key facts

• Size yard
• Front porch
• Wrap around deck

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FRONT PORCH
• WRAP AROUND DECK
• SIZE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($918 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.6% in Cambria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#931 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Carterville CUSD 5 (suburban): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #185 of 620 in IL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $85k implies a 325% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.84%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,416
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -4.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 W Vermont St	0.18mi	2/1.0	728 (-3%)	5mo	$90,000	$124	82
504 E Vermont St	0.33mi	2/1.0	800 (+7%)	10mo	$80,000	$100	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-6,371
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $4,061
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62918

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $918 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,541/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $772

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    listed $85,000 Active 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Looking to make your mark on a new home? This charming 2 bed 1 bath home is ready for some paint and a new owner. Kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances. Enjoy the front porch or the nice wrap around deck overlooking a nice size yard.

18. 2021-08-06
    historical
19. 2021-08-06
    historical
20. 2007-06-18
    soldstatus $20,000
21. 2007-05-10
    listed $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,541 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,735 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$194/yr (+$16/mo · 12.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,541
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$881
• − Management: −$881
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $55
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13
• After-tax cash flow: $1,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carterville CUSD 5
• NCES district ID: 1708640
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $47,344
• Composite: 30.87/100
• National rank: #6122
• State rank: #185 of 620 in IL

Livability — Cambria

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #931
• US rank: #18092

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cambria, IL
• County: Williamson County · 38,451 people
• City population: 473
• Metro: Carbondale-Marion, IL
• Population (ZIP): 10,658
• Household income: $70,920
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 240.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.58%
• Current HPI: 159.1431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carbondale-Marion, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+183.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $85,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-18 Sold (MLS) $20,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-10 Listed $30,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,541 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.