220 Four Ply Ln · Fayetteville, NC 28311

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1974 10,019 sqft lot Est $184k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * Seller is offering $5,000 in concessions with an acceptable offer! * * Welcome to 220 Four Ply Lane, a well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1 full bath, 2 half bath home offering 1,218 square feet of comfortable living space with an attached garage. The home has received light cosmetic updates, including fresh interior paint and newer LVP flooring, creating a clean and move-in-ready feel. The functional layout offers flexibility for everyday living, guests, or a home office. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard featuring a large in-ground pool, perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying warm Carolina summers. Conveniently located just off Ramsey Street, this home offers easy access

Key facts

• Quick commutes
• In-ground pool
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• IN-GROUND POOL
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• QUICK COMMUTES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.9% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Forest Middle (math 38% / reading 49%, grade D, #182 of 475 statewide, top 40%, 738 students, 56% FRL); Pine Forest High (math 73% / reading 51%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,572 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $165k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.76%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,918
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 Four Ply Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,218 (0%)	1mo	$164,500	$135	99
6812 Radial Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,339 (+10%)	5mo	$220,000	$164	77
209 Treadway Ct	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,321 (+8%)	10mo	$160,000	$121	73
6815 Radial Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,341 (+10%)	10mo	$234,500	$175	70
309 Sharpsburg Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+6%)	7mo	$240,000	$185	66
206 Treadway Ct	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,344 (+10%)	23mo	$165,000	$123	58
162 Wolfpoint Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+14%)	7mo	$210,000	$151	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-12,926
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,632
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28311

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,615 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,443/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,335

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $315	-5% $269	+0% $222	+5% $175	+10% $128
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $158	+0% $222	+5% $286	+10% $350
Rate	-1.0pp $305	-0.5pp $264	base $222	+0.5pp $179	+1.0pp $136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $165,000
3. 2026-03-25
   price $185,000
4. 2026-03-17
   price $187,999
5. 2026-02-16
   price $189,999
6. 2026-02-11
   price $194,500
7. 2026-01-27
   listed $195,000 Active
8. 2026-01-12
   historical $1,500
9. 2026-01-10
   listed $1,500
10. 2026-01-10
    historical $1,500
11. 2025-11-27
    price $1,500
12. 2025-11-11
    listed $1,600
13. 2025-07-01
    historical $1,500
14. 2025-06-25
    listed $1,500
15. 2025-06-20
    historical $1,500
16. 2025-06-19
    listed $1,500
17. 2022-01-14
    price $1,200
18. 2001-09-06
    soldstatus $73,000
19. 1997-01-31
    soldstatus $66,500
20. 1993-06-11
    soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,443 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,443 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,443
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$27
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7
• After-tax cash flow: $2,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 36,629
• Household income: $62,170
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1645.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 38% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.88%
• Current HPI: 203.0731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+194.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $165,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $185,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $187,999 LPRMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $189,999 LPRMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $194,500 LPRMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $195,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-01-12 Rental Removed $1,500 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-01-10 Listed for Rent $1,500 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-01-10 Rental Removed $1,500 BUILDIUM
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $1,500 BUILDIUM
• 2025-11-11 Listed for Rent $1,600 BUILDIUM
• 2025-07-01 Rental Removed $1,500 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-06-25 Listed for Rent $1,500 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-06-20 Rental Removed $1,500 BUILDIUM
• 2025-06-19 Listed for Rent $1,500 BUILDIUM
• 2022-01-14 Price Changed $1,200 BUILDIUM
• 2001-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 1997-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records
• 1993-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,443 · +38.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.