10831 Vireo Cir · Estero, FL 33928

$155,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 822 sqft · Manufactured public records · 198 Days on market

Built 1988 2,526 sqft lot Est $212k · 27% under · waterfront $257/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Manufactured Home in Corkscrew Woodlands. Welcome to this stunning, completely renovated manufactured home located in the highly desirable Corkscrew Woodlands, an active 55+ community. This beautiful residence features two bedrooms and one and a half baths, offering comfortable living in a serene environment with breathtaking lake view. Nestled within the outer circle of the community, this home boasts a lovely patio, perfect for enjoying morning coffee or evening sunsets over the lake. The expansive living room impresses with custom wood beams on the ceiling and modern LED lighting, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. Meticulously renovated by its owners, the home showcases

Key facts

• Lake view
• Modern led lighting
• Custom wood beams

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• LAKE VIEW
• CUSTOM WOOD BEAMS
• MODERN LED LIGHTING
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT PALETTE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community type: Mobile/Manufactured; Subdivision: Corkscrew Woodlands; Zoning code: RV; Lot is regular and approximately 0.058 acres; Restrictions: Architectural, deeded, limited number vehicles, no commercial
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with quarterly fee; Quarterly HOA fee of $771 (total annual recurring fees $3,084); On-site management; HOA maintenance includes cable, irrigation water, laundry facilities, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, recreation facilities, reserve, sewer, street lights, street maintenance, trash removal, water; Community amenities: clubhouse, community pool, community spa/hot tub, exercise room, billiards, bocce court, pickleball, tennis court, shuffleboard, BBQ/picnic area, common laundry, extra storage, internet access, sidewalks, streetlights

Exterior

• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured residential home; Single-story; Rear exposure facing north
• Construction: Built in 1988; Vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Manufactured building design
• Exterior features: Patio; Lake view / waterfront (lake); Private road

Interior

• Kitchen: Island; Breakfast bar; Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; Split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Vaulted ceiling; Turnkey
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($678/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 57% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $155k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.77%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,953
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10840 Bonapartes Gull	0.16mi	2/1.0 (+1)	782 (-5%)	13mo	$90,000	$115	69
10713 Roseate Spoonbill Cir	0.19mi	1/1.0	702 (-15%)	9mo	$135,000	$192	60
10809 White Wood Stork Cir #5	0.24mi	2/1.0 (+1)	918 (+12%)	16mo	$175,000	$191	51
10903 Peregrine Falcon Cir	0.50mi	2/2.0 (+1)	903 (+10%)	11mo	$165,000	$183	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-26,681
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-38,512
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,840 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,329/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$257
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,769

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $100	+0% $57	+5% $13	+10% $-31
Rent	-10% $-89	-5% $-16	+0% $57	+5% $129	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $96	base $57	+0.5pp $16	+1.0pp $-24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10952 Snowy Egret Cir Estero, FL	2.0	1.5	772	$1,450	$1.88	16d	1	0.19mi
10952 Snowy Egret Cir Estero, FL	2.0	1.5	772	$1,450	$1.88	16d	1	0.19mi
10710 San Tropez Cir Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	981	$2,500	$2.55	4d	1	0.28mi
21301 S Branch Blvd Estero, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1510	$1,833	$1.21	4d	12	0.52mi
10445 Corkscrew Commons Dr Estero, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$1,545	$1.50	4d	17	0.62mi
19520 Highland Oaks Dr Estero, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,863	$1.91	4d	18	1.05mi
10110 Villagio Palms Way #107 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1048	$2,050	$1.96	23d	1	1.33mi
20321 Estero Gardens Cir Estero, FL	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1423	$2,000	$1.41	25d	3	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $257 · $3,084/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $155,000 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 193 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 192 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $155,000 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $155,000 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-02-04
    price $155,000
12. 2025-12-05
    listed $165,000 Active
13. 2023-05-02
    soldstatus $100,000
14. 2003-07-21
    soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,329 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,329 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AH · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,329
• − Insurance: −$2,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,767
• − Management: −$1,767
• − HOA: −$3,084
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$1,655
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$397
• After-tax cash flow: $1,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+176.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $155,000 BEARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $165,000 BEARMLS
• 2023-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,329 · -26.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.