29 Burns Dr · Cabot, AR 72023

$167,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,185 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1992 Est $171k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lovely home with a spacious layout and plenty of natural light! NEW ROOF!! The large kitchen features a breakfast bar with ample space for cooking and gathering. Enjoy the sunny living room, dedicated laundry area, and generously sized bedrooms. Easy-to-maintain flooring throughout makes everyday living simple. Step outside to a large backyard that’s perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or enjoying outdoor activities. A must-see property with so much to offer!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Large kitchen
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY AREA
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Frame exterior
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Frame construction
• Exterior features: Partially fenced yard; Paved road access; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Tile; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Tile and luxury vinyl flooring; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($472/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.6% in Cabot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AR, #2,695 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #143 of 454 statewide, top 36%, 400 students, 65% FRL); Cabot Middle School South (math 48% / reading 38%, grade D-, #70 of 201 statewide, top 38%, 717 students, 49% FRL); Cabot High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #64 of 292 statewide, top 26%, 2,198 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 30% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $168k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,951 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.01%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Mcarthur Dr Dr	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,236 (+4%)	3mo	$159,000	$129	86
37 Saint John St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,188 (+0%)	3mo	$81,500	$69	68
33 Reno Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,221 (+3%)	0mo	$140,000	$115	64
39 Nevada Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+11%)	3mo	$205,000	$155	62
51 Nevada Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,310 (+10%)	4mo	$195,000	$149	60
20 Westhaven Pl	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,087 (-8%)	5mo	$179,500	$165	59
38 S 10th St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,140 (-4%)	2mo	$135,000	$118	58
21 Silverado Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,321 (+12%)	2mo	$190,000	$144	56
212 Rodney Guthrie Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,346 (+14%)	1mo	$176,000	$131	56
19 Fox Run Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-11%)	0mo	$175,000	$167	55
609 Dakota St	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,287 (+9%)	6mo	$205,000	$159	51
24 Winchester Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,294 (+9%)	6mo	$179,900	$139	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-24,446
• Equity at exit: $24,975

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-17,269
• Equity at exit: $14,482

Cash invested: $46,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72023

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,340 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $848/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,290

Max offer price $167,500

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $134	-5% $87	+0% $39	+5% $-8	+10% $-55
Rent	-10% $-66	-5% $-14	+0% $39	+5% $92	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $82	base $39	+0.5pp $-4	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,875
• Closing costs: $5,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29 Burns Dr Cabot, AR	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,325	$1.12	25d	1	0.02mi
28 Park Cir Cabot, AR	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,325	$1.01	25d	1	0.33mi
13 Pheasant Run Dr Cabot, AR	3.0	1.5	1162	$1,245	$1.07	25d	1	0.46mi
506 Waymack Cv Cabot, AR	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,450	$1.24	25d	1	0.53mi
35 Pheasant Run Dr Cabot, AR	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,250	$1.05	25d	1	0.56mi
415 Waymack Dr Cabot, AR	2.0	1.0	913	$995	$1.09	25d	1	0.57mi
47 Pheasant Run Dr Cabot, AR	3.0	1.0	1211	$1,100	$0.91	16d	1	0.58mi
405 Waymack Dr Cabot, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,450	$1.12	16d	1	0.58mi
1012 W Myrtle St Unit A Cabot, AR	2.0	1.5	900	$875	$0.97	25d	1	0.70mi
1099 W Elm St Unit B Cabot, AR	2.0	1.5	864	$875	$1.01	25d	1	0.71mi
303 S 10th St Apt 2 Cabot, AR	2.0	1.5	1054	$900	$0.85	21d	1	0.72mi
807 W Elm St Unit 1D Cabot, AR	2.0	1.5	957	$750	$0.78	25d	1	0.85mi
400 Northport Dr Cabot, AR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$1,223	$1.23	16d	16	1.01mi
33 Ryleigh Cir Cabot, AR	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,350	$1.01	25d	1	1.01mi
63 Robinson St Cabot, AR	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,350	$1.34	25d	1	1.08mi
311 S Lincoln St Cabot, AR	2.0	1.0	780	$1,000	$1.28	16d	1	1.18mi
106 S Grant St Cabot, AR	2.0	1.0	958	$1,050	$1.10	25d	1	1.18mi
118 N Park St Unit A Cabot, AR	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	25d	1	1.42mi
305 N Jackson St Cabot, AR	3.0	2.0	1009	$1,395	$1.38	23d	1	1.42mi
107 N Park St Unit A Cabot, AR	2.0	1.0	784	$800	$1.02	16d	1	1.47mi
2695 S 2nd St Cabot, AR	2.0–3.0	2.0	1125	$1,175	$1.04	16d	2	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $167,500 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $167,500 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $167,500 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 463-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $167,500 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $167,500 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $167,500 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $167,500 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $167,500 New Listing 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $167,500 New Listing 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $167,500 New Listing 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 452-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $167,500 New Listing 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $848 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,072 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$224/yr (+$19/mo · 26.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,383
• − Property taxes: −$848
• − Insurance: −$838
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,286
• − Management: −$1,286
• − Depreciation: −$4,873
• Taxable loss: −$2,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$585
• After-tax cash flow: $1,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Cabot

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2695

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cabot, AR
• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 37,452
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 37,452
• Household income: $76,931
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.12%
• Current HPI: 182.3489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.19%
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+112.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $167,500 CARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Rental Removed $1,325 APPFOLIO
• 2026-05-06 Listed for Rent $1,325 APPFOLIO
• 2025-03-09 Rental Removed $1,225 APPFOLIO
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $1,225 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-25 Price Changed $1,275 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-01 Listed for Rent $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-17 Rental Removed $1,225 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-13 Listed for Rent $1,225 APPFOLIO
• 2022-03-05 Price Changed $925 APPFOLIO
• 2003-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $848 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.