16 Fairview Dr · McGehee, AR 71654

$88,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,919 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1974 0.64 ac lot Est $117k · 25% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

This pleasant 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick home sits on a spacious corner lot in McGehee, Arkansas. Featuring a low-maintenance brick exterior and a covered carport, the home offers a functional layout with comfortable living space. The large, level yard provides plenty of room for outdoor activities and gardening. A generous concrete patio in the backyard and screened porch are perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Additional highlights include a detached storage building and mature trees that frame the property. Ideal for families or investors seeking a solid, well-located home in a quiet neighborhood.

Key facts

• Level yard
• Brick exterior
• Covered carport

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• COVERED CARPORT
• LEVEL YARD
• CONCRETE PATIO
• SCREENED PORCH
• DETACHED STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $88k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#122 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mcgehee School District (town): math 24% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #200 of 238 in AR (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Desha County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $891 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Desha County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $88k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.07%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $117,059
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Fairview Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,919 (0%)	1mo	$85,000	$44	99
10 Shannon	0.18mi	3/2.0	2,062 (+8%)	13mo	$50,000	$24	68
1 Adcock Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+0%)	18mo	$150,000	$78	68
914 N 2nd St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,123 (+11%)	8mo	$130,000	$61	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $15,669
• Equity at exit: $21,188

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $49,609
• Equity at exit: $22,203

Cash invested: $24,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71654

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $88,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,000
• Closing costs: $2,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $88,000 New Listing
3. 2012-07-25
   soldstatus $55,000
4. 1974-05-07
   soldstatus $22,015

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,485 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,485 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,929
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,182
• − Management: −$1,182
• − Depreciation: −$2,560
• Taxable income: $2,992
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$718
• After-tax cash flow: $3,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcgehee School District
• NCES district ID: 0509630
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $29,604
• Composite: 18.88/100
• National rank: #8858
• State rank: #200 of 238 in AR

Livability — McGehee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #11758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McGehee, AR
• Population (ZIP): 4,290

Population outlook (Desha County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,289 people
• By 2030: 9,472 · -7.9%
• By 2040: 8,102 · -21.3%
• By 2050: 7,128 · -30.7%
• By 2075: 6,222 · -39.5%
• By 2100: 6,583 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 41% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Desha

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.7% · R 51.5% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: -4.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.8 2020: D+2.3 2016: D+7.4 2012: D+12.9 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Current HPI: 107.7356
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+299.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $88,000 CARMLS
• 2012-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1974-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $22,015 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,485 · +637.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.