938 Mockingbird Passage Dr · Beasley, TX 77417

$195,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,805 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 5,144 sqft lot $108/sqft · 28% below area Est $271k · 28% under $113/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to purchase in the Master Planned Community of Emberly in Beasley TX 2 Story home with 4 beds and 2.5 bathrooms. Conveniently located off US 59 for ease of commute. The community offers resort-style amenities to include a Clubhouse with Fitness Center, Courtyard, Shade Structures, Resort-style Pool, Water Park/Splash Pad, Event Lawn/Town Square, Playground, Pickleball Courts, Sand Volleyball Court, Dog Park and Hike/Bike Trails.

Key facts

• Pickleball courts
• Resort-style pool
• 5,144 sq ft lot

Tags

• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE WITH FITNESS CENTER
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• WATER PARK/SPLASH PAD
• EVENT LAWN/TOWN SQUARE
• PICKLEBALL COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 5.6% in Beasley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,273 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); Lamar J H (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 1,246 students, 71% FRL); Lamar Cons H S (math 26% / reading 48%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,762 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 43% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.

Recommended offer $177,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.99%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,729
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -24.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10735 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-2%)	2mo	$289,990	$163	78
10723 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-2%)	2mo	$284,990	$160	77
622 Heaven Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,796 (-0%)	0mo	$289,990	$161	70
10715 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-12%)	1mo	$259,990	$163	55
10411 Birds Nest Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,670 (-8%)	2mo	$256,990	$154	55
10402 Rocky Trl	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,644 (-9%)	0mo	$251,990	$153	54
907 Heaven Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (-10%)	1mo	$270,000	$166	54
723 Blue Stone Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,031 (+12%)	0mo	$306,990	$151	51
619 Blue Stone Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,031 (+12%)	0mo	$306,990	$151	49
1018 Garnet Rain Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (-12%)	1mo	$254,990	$160	47
1110 Garnet Rain Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-15%)	0mo	$246,990	$161	43
1006 Blue Stone Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-15%)	2mo	$264,990	$173	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $64,985
• Equity at exit: $100,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $177,018
• Equity at exit: $165,985

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 94 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.4 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $289,990 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 62 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -8.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$671 /mo · $8,051/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,390

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $565	-5% $510	+0% $455	+5% $399	+10% $344
Rent	-10% $220	-5% $338	+0% $455	+5% $572	+10% $689
Rate	-1.0pp $553	-0.5pp $504	base $455	+0.5pp $404	+1.0pp $353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$2,965	$1.59	0d	1	0.47mi

HOA detail $113/mo · $1,356/yr

• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $195,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $195,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $195,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $195,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   pricedays on market $195,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $205,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $205,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $205,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $205,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $205,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $205,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $205,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $205,000 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $205,000 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $205,000 Active 97 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $205,000 Active 96 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $205,000 Active 95 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $205,000 Active 94 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $205,000 Active 93 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $205,000 Active 92 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $215,000 Active 91 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $215,000 Active 90 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 88 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $215,000 Active 87 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $215,000 Active 86 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 85 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 84 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 83 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 82 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 81 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $215,000 Active 80 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $215,000 Active 79 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    statusdays on market $215,000 Active 78 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    statusdays on market $215,000 Pending 77 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $215,000 Active 75 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $215,000 Active 73 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $215,000 Active 72 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $215,000 Active 69 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $215,000 Active 68 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $215,000 Active 67 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $215,000 Active 66 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    statusdays on market $215,000 Active 64 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $215,000 Pending 60 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,000 Pending 59 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $215,000 Pending 58 DOM
48. 2026-05-14
    price $215,000 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Great opportunity to purchase in the Master Planned Community of Emberly in Beasley TX 2 Story home with 4 beds and 2.5 bathrooms. Conveniently located off US 59 for ease of commute. The community offers resort-style amenities to include a Clubhouse with Fitness Center, Courtyard, Shade Structures, Resort-style Pool, Water Park/Splash Pad, Event Lawn/Town Square, Playground, Pickleball Courts, Sand Volleyball Court, Dog Park and Hike/Bike Trails.

49. 2026-03-31
    listed $225,000 Active 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Great opportunity to purchase in the Master Planned Community of Emberly in Beasley TX 2 Story home with 4 beds and 2.5 bathrooms. Conveniently located off US 59 for ease of commute. The community offers resort-style amenities to include a Clubhouse with Fitness Center, Courtyard, Shade Structures, Resort-style Pool, Water Park/Splash Pad, Event Lawn/Town Square, Playground, Pickleball Courts, Sand Volleyball Court, Dog Park and Hike/Bike Trails.

50. 2024-02-18
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,051 · $671/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,051 · $671/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$8,051
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,846
• − Management: −$2,846
• − HOA: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $2,910
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$698
• After-tax cash flow: $4,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,025–$27,075 screening

This 2-story home in Emberly, Kendleton TX, is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a great opportunity for a cosmetic renovation to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, increasing its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Beasley El F TX #1,995/4,322 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Lamar J H F TX #971/1,662 Nat'l #8,317/14,009 High Dr Thomas E Randle H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Beasley

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1273
• US rank: #22130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing F Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,232
• Household income: $60,809
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-13 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-09 Listed $250,000 HARMLS