938 Mockingbird Passage Dr · Kendleton, TX 77417

$215,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,805 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 5,144 sqft lot $119/sqft · 21% below area Est $270k · 21% under $113/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to purchase in the Master Planned Community of Emberly in Beasley TX 2 Story home with 4 beds and 2.5 bathrooms. Conveniently located off US 59 for ease of commute. The community offers resort-style amenities to include a Clubhouse with Fitness Center, Courtyard, Shade Structures, Resort-style Pool, Water Park/Splash Pad, Event Lawn/Town Square, Playground, Pickleball Courts, Sand Volleyball Court, Dog Park and Hike/Bike Trails.

Key facts

• Pickleball courts
• Resort-style pool
• 5,144 sq ft lot

Tags

• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE WITH FITNESS CENTER
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• WATER PARK/SPLASH PAD
• EVENT LAWN/TOWN SQUARE
• PICKLEBALL COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 6.2% in Kendleton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,021 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime D.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.

Recommended offer $202,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.81%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,451
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -20.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10803 Hickory Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-2%)	2mo	$309,900	$174	79
10735 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-2%)	0mo	$289,990	$163	79
719 Mockingbird Psge	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,863 (+3%)	2mo	$335,490	$180	76
10606 Crimson Trce	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (+1%)	2mo	$265,000	$145	66
10710 Sage Bend Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-12%)	1mo	$274,990	$172	55
1062 Blue Stone Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-8%)	2mo	$317,990	$192	55
1138 Blue Stone Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	1,951 (+8%)	3mo	$289,990	$149	54
10422 Rocky Trl	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,066 (+14%)	3mo	$297,990	$144	47
10415 Rocky Trl	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,066 (+14%)	3mo	$294,990	$143	46
10407 Rocky Trl	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,066 (+14%)	3mo	$294,990	$143	45
1031 Blue Stone Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-13%)	2mo	$307,990	$196	42
1023 Blue Stone Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-13%)	3mo	$309,990	$197	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $61,416
• Equity at exit: $110,940

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $172,933
• Equity at exit: $183,009

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$671 /mo · $8,051/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,533

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$2,965	$1.59	1d	1	0.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $113 · $1,356/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $215,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Pending 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Pending 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $215,000 Pending 58 DOM
9. 2026-05-14
   price $215,000 452-char remark

   Show marketing remark (452 chars)

   Great opportunity to purchase in the Master Planned Community of Emberly in Beasley TX 2 Story home with 4 beds and 2.5 bathrooms. Conveniently located off US 59 for ease of commute. The community offers resort-style amenities to include a Clubhouse with Fitness Center, Courtyard, Shade Structures, Resort-style Pool, Water Park/Splash Pad, Event Lawn/Town Square, Playground, Pickleball Courts, Sand Volleyball Court, Dog Park and Hike/Bike Trails.

10. 2026-03-31
    listed $225,000 Active 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Great opportunity to purchase in the Master Planned Community of Emberly in Beasley TX 2 Story home with 4 beds and 2.5 bathrooms. Conveniently located off US 59 for ease of commute. The community offers resort-style amenities to include a Clubhouse with Fitness Center, Courtyard, Shade Structures, Resort-style Pool, Water Park/Splash Pad, Event Lawn/Town Square, Playground, Pickleball Courts, Sand Volleyball Court, Dog Park and Hike/Bike Trails.

11. 2024-02-18
    historical
12. 2024-02-13
    price $225,000
13. 2024-02-09
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,051 · $671/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,051 · $671/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$8,051
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,846
• − Management: −$2,846
• − HOA: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $1,108
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$266
• After-tax cash flow: $3,831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-story home in Emberly, Kendleton TX, is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a great opportunity for a cosmetic renovation to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, increasing its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New paint in interior — Enhances interior aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kendleton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1021
• US rank: #18149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-13 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-09 Listed $250,000 HARMLS