863 Giles Hollow Rd · Rose Hill, VA 24281

$160,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · SingleFamily · 332 Days on market

Built 1948 1.50 ac lot $152/sqft · at area comps Est $156k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This adorable cottage style home sits on 1.5 acres and comes with 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, living room, formal dining room, kitchen, mud room. There is a staircase leading to the unfinished attic. There is enough space in the unfinished attic to have 2 more bedrooms. Amazing hardwood floors, No heating system, window AC, home has a septic system. Seller installed new roof, well, new plex plumbing and breaker box in 2016-2017. There is a detached garage and a barn that needs repair, great garden spot. All the furniture stays with this home, move in ready. Seller is going to only take a few personal items. There is a great mountain view from property.

Key facts

• New well
• New breaker box
• Unfinished attic

Tags

• 1.5 ACRES
• UNFINISHED ATTIC
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WELL
• NEW PLEX PLUMBING
• NEW BREAKER BOX

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.9% in Rose Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#49 in VA, #1,166 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 332 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 332 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.22%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,761
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: 2.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Tipton Hill Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,136 (+8%)	23mo	$139,000	$122	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $36,742
• Equity at exit: $101,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $115,821
• Equity at exit: $184,038

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24281

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $137,177

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5743 Doctor Thomas Walker Rd Apt A Rose Hill, VA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 332 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 331 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 330 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 329 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 328 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 327 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 326 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 323 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 322 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 321 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 320 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 317 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 316 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 315 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 314 DOM
16. 2025-07-21
    listed $160,000 Active 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    This adorable cottage style home sits on 1.5 acres and comes with 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, living room, formal dining room, kitchen, mud room. There is a staircase leading to the unfinished attic. There is enough space in the unfinished attic to have 2 more bedrooms. Amazing hardwood floors, No heating system, window AC, home has a septic system. Seller installed new roof, well, new plex plumbing and breaker box in 2016-2017. There is a detached garage and a barn that needs repair, great garden spot. All the furniture stays with this home, move in ready. Seller is going to only take a few personal items. There is a great mountain view from property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$4,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,133
• After-tax cash flow: $-760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $31,356
• Composite: 50.06/100
• National rank: #1913
• State rank: #62 of 131 in VA

Livability — Rose Hill

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 28,136
• Population (ZIP): 2,327

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,861 people
• By 2030: 21,701 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 19,188 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 16,619 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 11,795 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 8,290 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.8% · R 85.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.06%
• Current HPI: 142.4815
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-21 Listed $160,000 Knoxville MLS