12387 E Black Rock Rd · Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$1,599,000

3 bd · 5.0 ba · 2,810 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 208 Days on market

Built 2022 9,158 sqft lot $569/sqft · 10% below area Est $1870k · 14% under $795/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.5/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This designer residence blends architectural sophistication with the serenity of the high Sonoran Desert. Framed by dramatic mountain views, the home offers a seamless connection between indoor elegance and outdoor tranquility. With 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and a spacious den, every detail is curated for comfort and style. The open-concept great room features soaring ceilings, a sleek linear fireplace, and an entire wall of glass that floods the space with natural light, perfectly framing the desert backdrop.The chef's kitchen is a statement in itself making entertaining effortless. Just outside, your private outdoor retreat awaits, complete with a built-in kitchen, dual-sided fireplace, and generous lounge areas designed for evening gatherings under the stars. As part of Sereno Canyon's resort community, residents enjoy access to world-class amenities, think a state-of-the-art fitness center, luxurious spa, multiple pools, outdoor gathering spaces, café, and fire pits all surrounded by the natural beauty of the McDowell Mountains.This is more than a home it's a lifestyle defined by luxury, wellness, and connection to the desert landscape.

Key facts

• Dual-sided fireplace
• Built-in kitchen
• Luxurious spa

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• BUILT-IN KITCHEN
• DUAL-SIDED FIREPLACE
• LUXURIOUS SPA
• MULTIPLE POOLS
• OUTDOOR GATHERING SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $1.60M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-84k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (76.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $401k (74.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $369k (76.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.1% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 720 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($141k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $101k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $90k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$162k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 26550% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $369,381 (76.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 77% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.25% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.66%
• DSCR: 0.17
• GRM: 33.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,870,117
• List price: $1,599,000
• Delta: -14.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23852 N 123rd Pl	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,810 (0%)	1mo	$1,575,000	$560	77
23750 N 126th Pl	0.19mi	3/3.5	2,860 (+2%)	6mo	$1,888,000	$660	77
12308 E Black Rock Rd	0.16mi	3/3.5	2,860 (+2%)	9mo	$1,888,000	$660	76
12314 E Black Rock Rd	0.16mi	3/3.5	2,860 (+2%)	9mo	$1,900,000	$664	76
12320 E Black Rock Rd	0.14mi	3/3.5	2,860 (+2%)	13mo	$1,730,000	$605	74
12328 E Black Rock Rd	0.19mi	3/3.5	2,860 (+2%)	11mo	$1,825,000	$638	73
23721 N 123rd Pl	0.10mi	3/3.5	2,854 (+2%)	17mo	$1,525,000	$534	72
23788 N 123rd Way	0.12mi	3/3.5	2,785 (-1%)	20mo	$1,672,275	$600	71
23749 N 127th St	0.32mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,785 (-1%)	5mo	$1,670,000	$600	69
23686 N 126th Pl	0.19mi	3/3.5	3,124 (+11%)	3mo	$1,725,000	$552	64
23853 N 123rd Pl	0.17mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,785 (-1%)	21mo	$1,824,995	$655	62
24062 N 123rd Ct	0.24mi	3/3.5	2,475 (-12%)	19mo	$1,600,000	$646	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.64% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-10,605
• Equity at exit: $968,764

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $337,228
• Equity at exit: $1,726,189

Cash invested: $447,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85255

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 720
• Price-to-rent: 33.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,008 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,385
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,361/yr
• Insurance: −$666
• HOA: −$795
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$842
• Net cashflow: $-6,961

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,819

Max offer price $369,381

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $399,750
• Closing costs: $47,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12387 E Black Rock Rd Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.5	3231	$6,000	$1.86	16d	1	0.03mi
23634 N 125th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	2705	$10,995	$4.06	1d	1	0.15mi
11934 E Sand Hills Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	3437	$6,500	$1.89	15d	1	0.73mi
13020 E De la O Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	4.0	3200	$20,000	$6.25	1d	1	0.85mi
11741 E Parkview Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2879	$12,500	$4.34	1d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $795 · $9,540/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $1,599,000 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,599,000 Active 207 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   price $1,599,000 Active 206 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-05-12
   listed $6,000
6. 2026-05-08
   price $1,650,000 1162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

   This designer residence blends architectural sophistication with the serenity of the high Sonoran Desert. Framed by dramatic mountain views, the home offers a seamless connection between indoor elegance and outdoor tranquility. With 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and a spacious den, every detail is curated for comfort and style. The open-concept great room features soaring ceilings, a sleek linear fireplace, and an entire wall of glass that floods the space with natural light, perfectly framing the desert backdrop.The chef's kitchen is a statement in itself making entertaining effortless. Just outside, your private outdoor retreat awaits, complete with a built-in kitchen, dual-sided fireplace, and generous lounge areas designed for evening gatherings under the stars. As part of Sereno Canyon's resort community, residents enjoy access to world-class amenities, think a state-of-the-art fitness center, luxurious spa, multiple pools, outdoor gathering spaces, café, and fire pits all surrounded by the natural beauty of the McDowell Mountains.This is more than a home it's a lifestyle defined by luxury, wellness, and connection to the desert landscape.

7. 2026-04-13
   price $1,700,000 1162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

   This designer residence blends architectural sophistication with the serenity of the high Sonoran Desert. Framed by dramatic mountain views, the home offers a seamless connection between indoor elegance and outdoor tranquility. With 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and a spacious den, every detail is curated for comfort and style. The open-concept great room features soaring ceilings, a sleek linear fireplace, and an entire wall of glass that floods the space with natural light, perfectly framing the desert backdrop.The chef's kitchen is a statement in itself making entertaining effortless. Just outside, your private outdoor retreat awaits, complete with a built-in kitchen, dual-sided fireplace, and generous lounge areas designed for evening gatherings under the stars. As part of Sereno Canyon's resort community, residents enjoy access to world-class amenities, think a state-of-the-art fitness center, luxurious spa, multiple pools, outdoor gathering spaces, café, and fire pits all surrounded by the natural beauty of the McDowell Mountains.This is more than a home it's a lifestyle defined by luxury, wellness, and connection to the desert landscape.

8. 2026-04-13
   price $1,725,000 1162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

   This designer residence blends architectural sophistication with the serenity of the high Sonoran Desert. Framed by dramatic mountain views, the home offers a seamless connection between indoor elegance and outdoor tranquility. With 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and a spacious den, every detail is curated for comfort and style. The open-concept great room features soaring ceilings, a sleek linear fireplace, and an entire wall of glass that floods the space with natural light, perfectly framing the desert backdrop.The chef's kitchen is a statement in itself making entertaining effortless. Just outside, your private outdoor retreat awaits, complete with a built-in kitchen, dual-sided fireplace, and generous lounge areas designed for evening gatherings under the stars. As part of Sereno Canyon's resort community, residents enjoy access to world-class amenities, think a state-of-the-art fitness center, luxurious spa, multiple pools, outdoor gathering spaces, café, and fire pits all surrounded by the natural beauty of the McDowell Mountains.This is more than a home it's a lifestyle defined by luxury, wellness, and connection to the desert landscape.

9. 2026-03-22
   historical $5,500
10. 2026-03-05
    price $5,500
11. 2025-12-27
    price $1,789,000 1162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

    This designer residence blends architectural sophistication with the serenity of the high Sonoran Desert. Framed by dramatic mountain views, the home offers a seamless connection between indoor elegance and outdoor tranquility. With 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and a spacious den, every detail is curated for comfort and style. The open-concept great room features soaring ceilings, a sleek linear fireplace, and an entire wall of glass that floods the space with natural light, perfectly framing the desert backdrop.The chef's kitchen is a statement in itself making entertaining effortless. Just outside, your private outdoor retreat awaits, complete with a built-in kitchen, dual-sided fireplace, and generous lounge areas designed for evening gatherings under the stars. As part of Sereno Canyon's resort community, residents enjoy access to world-class amenities, think a state-of-the-art fitness center, luxurious spa, multiple pools, outdoor gathering spaces, café, and fire pits all surrounded by the natural beauty of the McDowell Mountains.This is more than a home it's a lifestyle defined by luxury, wellness, and connection to the desert landscape.

12. 2025-12-02
    listed $5,000
13. 2025-11-06
    listed $1,895,000 Active 1162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

    This designer residence blends architectural sophistication with the serenity of the high Sonoran Desert. Framed by dramatic mountain views, the home offers a seamless connection between indoor elegance and outdoor tranquility. With 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and a spacious den, every detail is curated for comfort and style. The open-concept great room features soaring ceilings, a sleek linear fireplace, and an entire wall of glass that floods the space with natural light, perfectly framing the desert backdrop.The chef's kitchen is a statement in itself making entertaining effortless. Just outside, your private outdoor retreat awaits, complete with a built-in kitchen, dual-sided fireplace, and generous lounge areas designed for evening gatherings under the stars. As part of Sereno Canyon's resort community, residents enjoy access to world-class amenities, think a state-of-the-art fitness center, luxurious spa, multiple pools, outdoor gathering spaces, café, and fire pits all surrounded by the natural beauty of the McDowell Mountains.This is more than a home it's a lifestyle defined by luxury, wellness, and connection to the desert landscape.

14. 2025-11-01
    historical
15. 2025-09-15
    price $1,895,000
16. 2025-08-05
    price $1,925,000
17. 2025-04-17
    price $1,950,000
18. 2025-01-22
    listed $1,995,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,361 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,553 · $879/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,192/yr (+$599/mo · 214.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,569
• − Property taxes: −$3,361
• − Insurance: −$7,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,847
• − Management: −$3,847
• − HOA: −$9,540
• − Depreciation: −$46,516
• Taxable loss: −$116,584
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$27,980
• After-tax cash flow: $-55,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 45,346
• Household income: $140,616
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.64%
• Current HPI: 330.9931
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-99.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed for Rent $6,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $1,650,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $1,700,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $1,725,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Rental Removed $5,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $5,500 ARMLS
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $1,789,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed for Rent $5,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $1,895,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $1,895,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $1,925,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $1,950,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-22 Listed $1,995,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+99.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,361 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.