20102 John Wayne Rd · Lytle, TX 78052

$277,330

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $358k · 22% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

The Franklin plan is one of our two-story homes featured in Saddle Ridge Estates in Lytle, TX. This new home layout offers 2 classic front exteriors, 5 bedrooms or 4 bedrooms with a loft space, 2.5 baths, 2 car-garage and 1891 square feet of comfortable living. Step inside The Franklin to find an elongated foyer opening to an open concept living room, kitchen, and dining area. The gourmet kitchen faces the living area so you don't miss a thing while cooking and includes quartz counter tops, stainless steel appliances and shaker style cabinetry. The main bedroom is located toward the front of the home on the second story and features an attractive attached bathroom with a walk-in shower, qua

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Walk-in shower
• Grand walk-in closet

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETRY
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• GRAND WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Spec inventory
• Financial info: List price $277,330

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property (The Franklin plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1892; Address: 20102 John Wayne Rd, Lytle, TX 78052

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (The Franklin plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $277k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (4.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.8% in Lytle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#404 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $264,000 (4.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.61%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $357,588
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16036 Stratford Cv	0.59mi	5/2.5	2,118 (+12%)	3mo	$370,900	$175	50
16020 Stratford Cv	0.62mi	5/2.5	2,118 (+12%)	3mo	$370,900	$175	49
16001 Cabana Dr	0.63mi	5/2.5	2,118 (+12%)	8mo	$366,900	$173	44
16021 Delgado Hls	0.70mi	5/2.5	2,118 (+12%)	8mo	$360,900	$170	41
16021 Stratford Cv	0.58mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (-14%)	3mo	$319,900	$197	40
16004 Stratford Cv	0.61mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (-14%)	1mo	$313,900	$193	40
16024 Stratford Cv	0.61mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (-14%)	4mo	$319,900	$197	38
16032 Stratford Cv	0.59mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (-14%)	6mo	$318,900	$196	37
16009 Cabana Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (-14%)	9mo	$307,900	$189	33
16029 Delgado Hls	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (-14%)	9mo	$296,900	$183	30
16037 Delgado Hls	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (-14%)	9mo	$301,900	$186	30
16005 Delgado Hls	0.74mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (-14%)	9mo	$315,900	$194	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $95,000
• Equity at exit: $178,727

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.48×
• Total profit: $270,052
• Equity at exit: $327,968

Cash invested: $77,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78052

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,454
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$347 /mo · $4,160/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,426

Max offer price $277,330

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,332
• Closing costs: $8,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16004 Tassel Br Lytle, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1558	$2,640	$1.69	1d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $277,330 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $277,330 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $277,330 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $277,330 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $277,330 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,535
• − Property taxes: −$4,160
• − Insurance: −$1,387
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,534
• − Management: −$2,534
• − Depreciation: −$8,068
• Taxable loss: −$2,538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$609
• After-tax cash flow: $2,638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lytle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828650
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,478
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8004
• State rank: #690 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lytle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #8374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lytle, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,221

Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% White 32% Two or more races 22% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Greek 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 44% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 221.8201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B