3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #17 · Vina, CA 96021

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 291 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $137k · 9% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently inherited property, motivated seller! The Woodson Bridge Estates. A charming 55+ community along the Sacramento River just across from the Woodson Bridge recreational area. Enjoy peaceful living in this beautiful park offering maintained grounds, club house, pool & numerous amenities. Good sized floor plan in this spacious 3 bedroom 2 bathroom triple wide manufactured home. Vaulted ceilings, built ins, isolated master bedroom from guest bedrooms on opposite ends of home. Kitchen with ample cabinetry, breakfast bar & dining nook. Good sized laundry room with cabinetry. Master suite with good sized master bath & walk in shower. Heat & Air with modern unit. Nicely landscaped exterior yard with timed sprinklers, mature shrubs & a few select fruit trees. Including Pomegranate, Nectarine & Peach. Two car covered carport parking. Nice sized tool/storage shed. Covered front deck. Easy maintenance landscaping. Come in with an open mind. Give this home some personal touches & make this your own. Excellent location for individuals into recreation with boat launch, camping facilities, fishing & boating from the Woodson Bridge State Recreation Area just across the way. Must be approved by park office prior to making any offer to purchase. Park space rent includes water, garbage & sewer. Available amenities include club house, billiards, pool, spa, group recreational gatherings, dog park & picnic area. There are park rules & regulations which can be obtained thru park office.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Covered carport
• Storage shed

Tags

• UPDATED LAMINATE WOOD FLOORS
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• SOLAR PANELS
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Total 2 parking spaces; Attached carport; 2 covered carport spaces; Guest parking available
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Mobile home; Villager model
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Wood skirt; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Secluded lot; Level topography; Has a view; Asphalt road access; City street and county road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Cooktop; Oven; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Has heating
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; Has heating; Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Cooktop; Oven; Refrigerator; Washer; Dryer; Carpet and laminate flooring; No fireplace; Total rooms: 1
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $508 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,345 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Corning Union High (rural): math 12% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #1,151 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 291 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $125k implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 291 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.43%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,704
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #5	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+2%)	8mo	$122,500	$79	86
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #1	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-8%)	3mo	$135,000	$95	80
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #105	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	13mo	$128,500	$89	79
3835 GARDINER Fry #82	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	14mo	$110,000	$76	78
3835 GARDINER Fry #102	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+2%)	23mo	$165,000	$105	77
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #28	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	9mo	$105,000	$73	77
3835 GARDINER FERRY #13 #13	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+3%)	23mo	$16,000	$10	76
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #104	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+4%)	22mo	$160,000	$100	74
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #94	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	16mo	$120,000	$83	71
24895 New Jersey Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+2%)	12mo	$549,000	$352	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $12,089
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $52,074
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96021

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,612 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $686/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $968

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 291 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 290 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 289 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 288 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 287 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 285 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 284 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 282 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 281 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 280 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 279 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 276 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 275 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 274 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 273 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 272 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 271 DOM
18. 2026-03-29
    price $125,000
19. 2025-10-08
    price $135,000
20. 2025-09-02
    listed $145,000 Active
21. 2021-05-28
    soldstatus $43,800 1561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1561 chars)

    Recently inherited property, motivated seller! The Woodson Bridge Estates. A charming 55+ community along the Sacramento River just across from the Woodson Bridge recreational area. Enjoy peaceful living in this beautiful park offering maintained grounds, club house, pool & numerous amenities. Good sized floor plan in this spacious 3 bedroom 2 bathroom triple wide manufactured home. Vaulted ceilings, built ins, isolated master bedroom from guest bedrooms on opposite ends of home. Kitchen with ample cabinetry, breakfast bar & dining nook. Good sized laundry room with cabinetry. Master suite with good sized master bath & walk in shower. Heat & Air with modern unit. Nicely landscaped exterior yard with timed sprinklers, mature shrubs & a few select fruit trees. Including Pomegranate, Nectarine & Peach. Two car covered carport parking. Nice sized tool/storage shed. Covered front deck. Easy maintenance landscaping. Come in with an open mind. Give this home some personal touches & make this your own. Excellent location for individuals into recreation with boat launch, camping facilities, fishing & boating from the Woodson Bridge State Recreation Area just across the way. Must be approved by park office prior to making any offer to purchase. Park space rent includes water, garbage & sewer. Available amenities include club house, billiards, pool, spa, group recreational gatherings, dog park & picnic area. There are park rules & regulations which can be obtained thru park office.

22. 2020-11-06
    listed $49,000 1561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1561 chars)

    Recently inherited property, motivated seller! The Woodson Bridge Estates. A charming 55+ community along the Sacramento River just across from the Woodson Bridge recreational area. Enjoy peaceful living in this beautiful park offering maintained grounds, club house, pool & numerous amenities. Good sized floor plan in this spacious 3 bedroom 2 bathroom triple wide manufactured home. Vaulted ceilings, built ins, isolated master bedroom from guest bedrooms on opposite ends of home. Kitchen with ample cabinetry, breakfast bar & dining nook. Good sized laundry room with cabinetry. Master suite with good sized master bath & walk in shower. Heat & Air with modern unit. Nicely landscaped exterior yard with timed sprinklers, mature shrubs & a few select fruit trees. Including Pomegranate, Nectarine & Peach. Two car covered carport parking. Nice sized tool/storage shed. Covered front deck. Easy maintenance landscaping. Come in with an open mind. Give this home some personal touches & make this your own. Excellent location for individuals into recreation with boat launch, camping facilities, fishing & boating from the Woodson Bridge State Recreation Area just across the way. Must be approved by park office prior to making any offer to purchase. Park space rent includes water, garbage & sewer. Available amenities include club house, billiards, pool, spa, group recreational gatherings, dog park & picnic area. There are park rules & regulations which can be obtained thru park office.

23. 2020-10-01
    historical
24. 2020-02-20
    listed $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $686 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$264/yr (+$22/mo · 38.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$686
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,547
• − Management: −$1,547
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,296
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,031
• After-tax cash flow: $5,070/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Corning Union High
• NCES district ID: 0609810
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,060
• Composite: 25.18/100
• National rank: #12925
• State rank: #1151 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Vina

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1345
• US rank: #26820

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,076

Population outlook (Tehama County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,058 people
• By 2030: 59,493 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 56,076 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 52,372 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 43,895 · -28.1%
• By 2100: 34,186 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 44% Two or more races 20% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 40%

Political lean MEDSL · Tehama

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 27.9% · R 69.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.81%
• Current HPI: 272.9407
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+108.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $125,000 SAOR
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $135,000 SAOR
• 2025-09-02 Listed $145,000 SAOR
• 2021-05-28 Sold (MLS) $43,800 CRMLS
• 2020-11-06 Listed $49,000 CRMLS
• 2020-10-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-02-20 Listed $60,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $686 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.