5630 Lorenzo Rd · Columbus, GA 31904

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 806 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1943 7,405 sqft lot $161/sqft · at area comps Est $125k · at est. ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable, adorable and move-in ready in North Columbus! Completely renovated - features brand-new kitchen cabinetry, quartz countertops, and gas range. LVP flooring throughout, updated bathrooms with new tubs, tile, vanities, and fixtures. New lighting and ceiling fans, generous walk-in closets, and a spacious, level backyard. New HVAC, water heater, electrical and plumbing updated. Conveniently located seconds from shopping, restaurants, and all North Columbus amenities.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Updated bathrooms
• New tubs

Tags

• BRAND-NEW KITCHEN CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• GAS RANGE
• LVP FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• NEW TUBS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($904/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.7% in Columbus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#254 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Muscogee County (urban): math 21% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #120 of 174 in GA (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Allen Elementary School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #810 of 1,228 statewide, top 69%, 451 students, 97% FRL); Arnold Middle School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #381 of 470 statewide, top 82%, 645 students, 97% FRL); Jordan Vocational High School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #342 of 424 statewide, top 81%, 869 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 61% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 291 units permitted in Muscogee County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Muscogee County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,186 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.48%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,729
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 4.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1113 Steve Mar Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	875 (+9%)	12mo	$111,375	$127	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-16,261
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-8,013
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31904

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,092 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $623/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $997

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $112	+0% $75	+5% $39	+10% $2
Rent	-10% $-11	-5% $32	+0% $75	+5% $118	+10% $162
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $108	base $75	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5614 Lorenzo Rd Columbus, GA	2.0	1.0	1112	$950	$0.85	45d	1	0.03mi
1061 54th St Columbus, GA	3.0	1.0	1005	$1,100	$1.09	23d	1	0.78mi
3140 Bonanza Dr Columbus, GA	3.0	1.0	1058	$1,550	$1.47	45d	1	1.02mi
5000 Armour Rd Columbus, GA	1.0	1.0	747	$800	$1.07	45d	1	1.18mi
1121 47th St Columbus, GA	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   statusdays on market $129,900 Pending 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 58 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    price $133,000 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Affordable, adorable and move-in ready in North Columbus! Completely renovated - features brand-new kitchen cabinetry, quartz countertops, and gas range. LVP flooring throughout, updated bathrooms with new tubs, tile, vanities, and fixtures. New lighting and ceiling fans, generous walk-in closets, and a spacious, level backyard. New HVAC, water heater, electrical and plumbing updated. Conveniently located seconds from shopping, restaurants, and all North Columbus amenities.

19. 2026-04-02
    listed $139,000 Active 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Affordable, adorable and move-in ready in North Columbus! Completely renovated - features brand-new kitchen cabinetry, quartz countertops, and gas range. LVP flooring throughout, updated bathrooms with new tubs, tile, vanities, and fixtures. New lighting and ceiling fans, generous walk-in closets, and a spacious, level backyard. New HVAC, water heater, electrical and plumbing updated. Conveniently located seconds from shopping, restaurants, and all North Columbus amenities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $623 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,195 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$572/yr (+$48/mo · 91.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$623
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,048
• − Management: −$1,048
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,322
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$317
• After-tax cash flow: $1,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Muscogee County
• NCES district ID: 1303870
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,176
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8297
• State rank: #120 of 174 in GA

Livability — Columbus

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #14102

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbus, GA
• County: Muscogee County · 180,764 people
• City population: 180,764
• Metro: Columbus, GA-AL
• Population (ZIP): 35,405
• Household income: $66,291
• Rent vs Own: 48.2% rent · 51.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2030.0

Population outlook (Muscogee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 216,729 people
• By 2030: 224,504 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 238,318 · +10.0%
• By 2050: 249,027 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 264,862 · +22.2%
• By 2100: 254,786 · +17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 28% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Muscogee

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 61.4% · R 38.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.7pp toward D · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+18.6 2012: D+21.3 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.06%
• Current HPI: 155.1405
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Columbus, GA-AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $133,000 CBOR
• 2026-04-02 Listed $139,000 CBOR

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $623 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.