2908 Magnolia Dr · San Juan, TX 78589

$315,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,773 sqft · Land · 163 Days on market

Built 2025 6,389 sqft lot $178/sqft · 32% above area Est $238k · 32% over $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful new construction home in San Juan, Texas offers 1,773 living sq ft of living space with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This thoughtfully designed residence features a split-bedroom floor plan, high ceilings, and abundance of natural light, creating a bright and open living space. The beautifully designed kitchen includes soft-close cabinetry, a spacious pantry, and smart appliances, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a private ensuite with a double vanity, private commode, walk-in shower, and a large custom walk-in closet with built in drawers. Secondary bedrooms are generously sized, ideal for kids, guests, or a home office. Built for comfort and efficiency with 100% spray foam insulation, a high-efficiency A/C, and a smart thermostat. Sprinkler system and professional landscaping are already included, making this home truly move-in ready.

Key facts

• Smart appliances
• Spacious pantry
• Soft-close cabinetry

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETRY
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• SMART APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE ENSUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Alfred Sorensen El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 616 students, 83% FRL); Austin Middle (math 14% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,543 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 951 students, 85% FRL); Psja Early College H S (math 33% / reading 65%, grade D, #553 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 2,459 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 72% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $273,904 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.02%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,118
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: 32.29%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-37,011
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-14,446
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,739 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,545/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,458

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $311	+0% $222	+5% $133	+10% $44
Rent	-10% $6	-5% $114	+0% $222	+5% $330	+10% $438
Rate	-1.0pp $381	-0.5pp $302	base $222	+0.5pp $140	+1.0pp $57

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2917 Arboledas Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$3,260	$1.77	16d	1	0.10mi
1606 S Kumquat St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,350	$0.91	25d	1	0.81mi
1606 Kumquat Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,398	$0.95	45d	1	0.93mi
1305 James Cir Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,550	$1.02	25d	1	1.17mi
2302 San Pascual St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,800	$1.40	45d	1	1.19mi
4000 S Las Nubes Pharr, TX	3.0	2.5	1498	$2,000	$1.34	45d	1	1.35mi
4000 S Las Nubes Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$2,000	$1.29	21d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $315,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $315,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $315,000 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $323,000 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $323,000 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $323,000 Active 141 DOM
17. 2026-01-09
    listed $323,000 Active 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    This beautiful new construction home in San Juan, Texas offers 1,773 living sq ft of living space with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This thoughtfully designed residence features a split-bedroom floor plan, high ceilings, and abundance of natural light, creating a bright and open living space. The beautifully designed kitchen includes soft-close cabinetry, a spacious pantry, and smart appliances, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a private ensuite with a double vanity, private commode, walk-in shower, and a large custom walk-in closet with built in drawers. Secondary bedrooms are generously sized, ideal for kids, guests, or a home office. Built for comfort and efficiency with 100% spray foam insulation, a high-efficiency A/C, and a smart thermostat. Sprinkler system and professional landscaping are already included, making this home truly move-in ready.

18. 2025-07-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,545 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,764 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,219/yr (+$352/mo · 273.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,545
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,629
• − Management: −$2,629
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$2,679
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$643
• After-tax cash flow: $3,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Listed $323,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+27.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,545 · +27.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.