16818 Ellis Ave · South Holland, IL 60473

$249,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1967 8,241 sqft lot Est $244k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Home buyers and Investors take notice! Seller says SELL! Large Tri-Level needs mostly cosmetics. Living Room and Formal Dining room has hardwood floors. Eat-in galley kitchen with ceramic flooring and stainless steel appliances. Family room has a stylish brick fireplace and is very spacious. Four generous sized bedrooms and with an ensuite bath room on third level. 2 car attached garage.

Key facts

• Ceramic flooring
• Brick fireplace
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CERAMIC FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BRICK FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property built before 1978
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Owned garage (2 garage spaces, 2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer and storm sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers, 100 amp service
• Home design: Detached single-family home; 1.5-story design; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Built 51–60 years ago; Vinyl siding and brick exterior; Asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; School bus service; Interstate access

Interior

• Kitchen: Eating area/table space, galley-style kitchen; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Master bedroom on third level; Bedrooms on third, third, and lower levels
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring in living room, dining room, and some bedrooms; Ceramic tile in kitchen; Carpet in family room and master bedroom; Vinyl flooring in laundry
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Basement bathroom present
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Basement living area included in room count; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on lower level; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#167 in IL, #3,071 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, schools D+.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $249k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.

Recommended offer $249,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.72%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17024 Kimbark Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,680 (0%)	2mo	$176,000	$105	77
1222 E 170th St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,750 (+4%)	2mo	$290,000	$166	67
17001 Kimbark Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,776 (+6%)	0mo	$299,900	$169	64
16827 Parkside Ave	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,613 (-4%)	0mo	$220,000	$136	64
751 E 167th St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,868 (+11%)	0mo	$239,900	$128	59
17032 University Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-11%)	2mo	$242,000	$161	58
452 E 167th St	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (+7%)	0mo	$212,000	$118	52
1153 E 171st Ct	0.45mi	4/3.0	1,929 (+15%)	3mo	$280,000	$145	50
16535 S Elm Ct	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,540 (-8%)	1mo	$235,000	$153	48
17249 School St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,797 (+7%)	2mo	$300,000	$167	47
636 E 173rd St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,878 (+12%)	1mo	$225,000	$120	41
16712 Elm St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,446 (-14%)	2mo	$191,000	$132	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,170
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $43,541
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60473

• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$576 /mo · $6,912/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$678
• Net cashflow: $565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,513

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16246 Dobson Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,170	$2.54	2d	1	0.66mi
16001 Avalon Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1136	$3,330	$2.93	6d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 394-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $249,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,912 · $576/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,912 · $576/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$6,912
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,099
• − Management: −$3,099
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $3,191
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$766
• After-tax cash flow: $6,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — South Holland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #3071

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Holland, IL
• City population: 21,407
• Population (ZIP): 21,407

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.36%
• Current HPI: 201.2479
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+130.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $249,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,912 · +26.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.