29 Longbow Ln · Springfield, IL 62704

$169,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,153 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1961 7,200 sqft lot Est $248k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lots of space in this ranch. Updates include roof(2008) all mechanicals, master bath, all flooring. This is ready to move in.

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1961

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Built in 1961; Shingle roof
• Construction: Built in 1961
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (two on main level; additional bedrooms on lower/additional levels) — main level bedrooms have hardwood floors
• Flooring: Hardwood in main-level bedrooms; Laminate in living/dining and basement rec room; Tile in kitchen; Carpet in bonus/additional room; Other flooring in basement laundry area
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Partial, partially finished basement; Egress windows in some bedrooms; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room (basement)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sandburg Elem School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #517 of 2,056 statewide, top 28%, 281 students, 0% FRL); Springfield Southeast High Sch (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 1,261 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $169,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.68%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,595
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41 Belhaven Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	2,163 (+0%)	2mo	$237,236	$110	80
40 Foresters Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	2,034 (-6%)	0mo	$232,500	$114	79
29 Belhaven Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,148 (-0%)	3mo	$220,000	$102	75
53 Friars Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,866 (-13%)	2mo	$212,000	$114	68
2620 Montega Dr	0.58mi	3/3.0	2,147 (-0%)	4mo	$275,000	$128	67
2317 Grinnell Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,922 (-11%)	1mo	$222,000	$116	65
3132 Elmhurst Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	2,048 (-5%)	3mo	$235,000	$115	64
2125 Brentwood Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	2,249 (+4%)	0mo	$235,000	$104	55
29 Andover Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,424 (+13%)	3mo	$283,500	$117	54
10 Andover Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,436 (+13%)	2mo	$180,500	$74	51
3304 Ellendale Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,970 (-8%)	2mo	$255,000	$129	48
441 Armor Rd	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,837 (-15%)	4mo	$215,000	$117	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,074
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $36,420
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62704

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$345 /mo · $4,138/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,654

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Robinhood Ln Springfield, IL	3.0	2.5	2400	$2,495	$1.04	21d	1	0.14mi
1666 Seven Pines Rd Springfield, IL	1.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	1025	$1,383	$1.35	21d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $169,900 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $169,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   remarks 290-char remark
4. 2026-06-03
   listed $169,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,138 · $345/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,138 · $345/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$4,138
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,813
• − Management: −$1,813
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$406
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$97
• After-tax cash flow: $2,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL
• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,046
• Household income: $69,976
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1529.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 15% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.79%
• Current HPI: 156.7086
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.32%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+33.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $169,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-25 Sold (MLS) $120,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-22 Listed $126,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,138 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.