10711 Wabayo St · Moon Lake, FL 34654

$228,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,539 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1990 0.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Own your Own Home on your Own Land. Beautiful Lawn, Ample Parking, with no restrictions. Sit on your Cozy Screened Porch out front and Grill on Your Large Wooden Deck out back. Enter into the Great Room that is Open to the Kitchen with this Split Plan layout. Master Bedroom has a Private Bath and Shower. The Inside Laundry Room is down the hall near the second bedroom and bathroom. This Home is the Perfect Combination of Privacy and Convenience. Off the beaten path with easy access to shopping, fishing, golf, boat ramps, beaches, and medical facilities. Short Distance to SR52 or Ridge Road East & West with the 589 Veterans Expressway or US Highway 19 North & South. Strong ROI for buy & hold or fix & flip investor.

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total lot approx. 0.35 acres (0.25–0.5 acre range)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions noted
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: No parking information provided
• Security: No security features specified
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Private utilities
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; Faces east; Entry level: One
• Construction: Other construction materials; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured double wide
• Exterior features: Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No interior features specified
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features specified; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.4% in Moon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#871 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $228k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,160 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.76%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,042
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10641 Atlee St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-9%)	5mo	$110,000	$78	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-20,717
• Equity at exit: $33,996

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-14,350
• Equity at exit: $19,713

Cash invested: $63,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,257 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,590/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,802

Max offer price $228,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $489	-5% $424	+0% $360	+5% $295	+10% $231
Rent	-10% $181	-5% $270	+0% $360	+5% $449	+10% $538
Rate	-1.0pp $474	-0.5pp $418	base $360	+0.5pp $301	+1.0pp $240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,000
• Closing costs: $6,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11433 Crowne Pointe St New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1933	$2,450	$1.27	25d	1	1.04mi
12135 Environmental Dr #4 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,800	$1.45	25d	1	1.29mi
12316 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,150	$1.32	4d	1	1.36mi
11903 Greengate Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,900	$1.14	25d	1	1.39mi
11925 Greengate Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,200	$1.32	13d	1	1.41mi
12250 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,200	$1.35	25d	1	1.41mi
12245 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1207	$2,280	$1.89	25d	1	1.43mi
12065 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,200	$1.53	19d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   price $228,000
3. 2026-03-10
   listed $249,900 Active
4. 2025-12-05
   soldstatus $85,000 Closed 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   Own your Own Home on your Own Land. Beautiful Lawn, Ample Parking, with no restrictions. Sit on your Cozy Screened Porch out front and Grill on Your Large Wooden Deck out back. Enter into the Great Room that is Open to the Kitchen with this Split Plan layout. Master Bedroom has a Private Bath and Shower. The Inside Laundry Room is down the hall near the second bedroom and bathroom. This Home is the Perfect Combination of Privacy and Convenience. Off the beaten path with easy access to shopping, fishing, golf, boat ramps, beaches, and medical facilities. Short Distance to SR52 or Ridge Road East & West with the 589 Veterans Expressway or US Highway 19 North & South. Strong ROI for buy & hold or fix & flip investor.

5. 2025-11-12
   status Pending 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   Own your Own Home on your Own Land. Beautiful Lawn, Ample Parking, with no restrictions. Sit on your Cozy Screened Porch out front and Grill on Your Large Wooden Deck out back. Enter into the Great Room that is Open to the Kitchen with this Split Plan layout. Master Bedroom has a Private Bath and Shower. The Inside Laundry Room is down the hall near the second bedroom and bathroom. This Home is the Perfect Combination of Privacy and Convenience. Off the beaten path with easy access to shopping, fishing, golf, boat ramps, beaches, and medical facilities. Short Distance to SR52 or Ridge Road East & West with the 589 Veterans Expressway or US Highway 19 North & South. Strong ROI for buy & hold or fix & flip investor.

6. 2025-10-07
   listed $79,900 Active 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   Own your Own Home on your Own Land. Beautiful Lawn, Ample Parking, with no restrictions. Sit on your Cozy Screened Porch out front and Grill on Your Large Wooden Deck out back. Enter into the Great Room that is Open to the Kitchen with this Split Plan layout. Master Bedroom has a Private Bath and Shower. The Inside Laundry Room is down the hall near the second bedroom and bathroom. This Home is the Perfect Combination of Privacy and Convenience. Off the beaten path with easy access to shopping, fishing, golf, boat ramps, beaches, and medical facilities. Short Distance to SR52 or Ridge Road East & West with the 589 Veterans Expressway or US Highway 19 North & South. Strong ROI for buy & hold or fix & flip investor.

7. 2005-06-29
   soldstatus $86,000
8. 2005-06-08
   soldstatus $86,000 210-char remark

   Show marketing remark (210 chars)

   GREAT PROPERTY FOR ANIMAL LOVERS AND IT INCLUDES A BEAUTIFUL SPLIT PLAN HOME! WONDERFUL BRIGHT KITCHEN TO INCLUDE ALL APPLIANCES, CORNERED FIREPLACE, VAULTED CEILINGS, POOL, STORAGE SHED & SCREENED LANAI!

9. 2005-04-13
   listed $89,000 210-char remark

   Show marketing remark (210 chars)

   GREAT PROPERTY FOR ANIMAL LOVERS AND IT INCLUDES A BEAUTIFUL SPLIT PLAN HOME! WONDERFUL BRIGHT KITCHEN TO INCLUDE ALL APPLIANCES, CORNERED FIREPLACE, VAULTED CEILINGS, POOL, STORAGE SHED & SCREENED LANAI!

10. 2003-08-08
    soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,590 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$302/yr (+$25/mo · 19.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,772
• − Property taxes: −$1,590
• − Insurance: −$1,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,166
• − Management: −$2,166
• − Depreciation: −$6,633
• Taxable income: $613
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$147
• After-tax cash flow: $4,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Moon Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #871
• US rank: #22850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moon Lake, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+286.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $228,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Sold (MLS) $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-08 Sold (MLS) $86,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-13 Listed $89,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,590 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.