10807 Hickory Ln · Rosenberg, TX 77417

$319,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,024 sqft · Land · 18 Days on market

Built 2025 $137/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready and loaded with upgrades, the Starling by LGI Homes offers abundant space and storage. This gorgeous two-story home provides a true retreat for families, showcasing two separate entertaining spaces with an expansive family room downstairs and spacious game room upstairs. The bright and open chef-ready kitchen offers an abundance of beautiful wood cabinets and granite countertops in addition to a full suite of Whirlpool® appliances including a refrigerator. Homeowners will love the private, master suite with its separate vanity, glass-enclosed shower and large walk-in closet. Additionally, the Starling comes standard with a large covered front porch and back patio, a fully

Key facts

• Private master suite
• Chef-ready kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• EXPANSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• SPACIOUS GAME ROOM
• CHEF-READY KITCHEN
• BEAUTIFUL WOOD CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PRIVATE MASTER SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Emberly Homeowners Association; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Built by LGI Homes; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction; Year built 2025
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fence (back yard); Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (13x16); Bedroom on second floor (11x12); Bedroom on second floor (11x12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom on second floor (9x8); Bathroom on second floor (8x5)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning (gas); Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Tub/shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room on second floor (6x8)

🏗️ New construction. The $319,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $268,449.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); Lamar J H (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 1,246 students, 71% FRL); Lamar Cons H S (math 26% / reading 48%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,762 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 43% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11881% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $237,500 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.43%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,449
• List price: $319,900
• Delta: 19.17%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $54,789
• Equity at exit: $138,519

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $167,397
• Equity at exit: $228,505

Cash invested: $75,166 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,408
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,559/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$137
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,261

Max offer price $268,449

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $242	-5% $166	+0% $90	+5% $14	+10% $-62
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $-4	+0% $90	+5% $184	+10% $277
Rate	-1.0pp $225	-0.5pp $158	base $90	+0.5pp $20	+1.0pp $-51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,112
• Closing costs: $8,053
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$2,375	$1.27	0d	1	0.73mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $137 · $1,644/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on marketlisting id $319,900 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,900 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,900 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-04-27
    price $319,900 756-char remark
14. 2026-04-22
    listed $309,900 Active 756-char remark
15. 2026-04-20
    historical
16. 2026-03-18
    listed $309,900 Active
17. 2026-03-16
    historical
18. 2026-03-10
    price $309,900
19. 2026-02-20
    price $319,900
20. 2026-02-12
    listed $343,900 Active
21. 2026-02-09
    historical
22. 2026-01-08
    listed $343,900 Active
23. 2026-01-05
    historical
24. 2025-12-02
    listed $343,900 Active
25. 2025-11-24
    historical
26. 2025-10-15
    listed $343,900 Active
27. 2025-10-14
    historical
28. 2025-10-14
    historical $2,755
29. 2025-10-02
    price $343,900
30. 2025-09-11
    price $2,755
31. 2025-08-30
    listed $2,945
32. 2025-08-29
    listed $339,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,559 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,854 · $488/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,295/yr (+$358/mo · 275.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,037
• − Property taxes: −$1,559
• − Insurance: −$1,342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,280
• − Management: −$2,280
• − HOA: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$7,809
• Taxable loss: −$3,452
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$829
• After-tax cash flow: $1,905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 115,151
• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed for Rent $2,670 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $319,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $319,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $309,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $309,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $309,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $319,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $343,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $343,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $343,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $343,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Rental Removed $2,755 HARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $343,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $2,755 HARMLS
• 2025-08-30 Listed for Rent $2,945 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $339,900 HARMLS