638 Ohio Ave · Trenton, NJ 08638

$174,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · Townhouse public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1920 1,250 sqft lot Est $198k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COME SEE ALL THE WORK THEY DID TO ME. I am a Three story Row Home featuring a Large Living room, dining room with a hallway passing the first floor bathroom leading into the Updated kitchen featuring Shaker style oversized cabinets w/ soft close doors and drawers (No slamming of cabinets here), Quartz tops for my countertops, new SS appliances, including that much needed dishwasher, microwave and Stove. New LED lighting throughout, New Waterproof Vinyl on the 1st floor with minimal thresholds. New carpet on the second and third floors, I have also been painted throughout with the added plus of New Electrical service and Panel with Circuit Breakers! This was all done with permits which have all been closed out. WOW. I haven't even talked about the bonus room upstairs which connects the two second floor bedrooms, all with new Carpet. There is the staircase leading up the Attic with my third bedroom, with heat of course. You will find an added bonus in the basement, which of course has the washer, dryer hookups but also a commode. You never know when you will need an extra one. Again, come see me, I really think you will "love" me. Make your appointment soon.

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Full basement
• Close to dining

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FULL BASEMENT
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• DESIRABLE NEIGHBORHOOD
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: 100 amp electric service; Natural gas for heating; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Not in a federal flood zone
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Roof: unknown
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Street lights; Rear fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first upper level; One bedroom on the second upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: 90% forced air heating; Hot water: electric
• Interior features: 7 total rooms including living room, dining room, kitchen and a bonus room; Basement with interior access
• Laundry & utility: Basement laundry hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• Recommended offer: $171k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,390 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.29%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,846
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
629 Ohio Ave	0.02mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,044 (-1%)	1mo	$252,000	$241	91
813 Spruce St	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,062 (+0%)	6mo	$225,000	$212	85
23 Cain Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,102 (+4%)	8mo	$120,000	$109	75
1314 Princeton Ave	0.27mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,092 (+3%)	4mo	$173,730	$159	71
30 Mechanics Ave	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,092 (+3%)	5mo	$103,200	$95	66
219 Phillips Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,158 (+10%)	0mo	$230,000	$199	62
123 Vine St	0.49mi	3/2.0	980 (-7%)	2mo	$199,000	$203	59
51 Vine St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	978 (-8%)	7mo	$105,000	$107	54
50 Mechanics Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+13%)	1mo	$117,500	$98	54
55 Heil Ave	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+13%)	7mo	$224,999	$187	52
29 Poplar St	0.52mi	3/1.0	938 (-11%)	7mo	$68,000	$72	51
224 Phillips Ave	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,210 (+14%)	8mo	$300,000	$248	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $9,588
• Equity at exit: $25,944

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $59,349
• Equity at exit: $15,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08638

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,365 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,634/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,630

Max offer price $174,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
901 Brunswick Ave #7 Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	940	$2,800	$2.98	14d	1	0.17mi
331 Ellis Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1190	$2,275	$1.91	21d	1	0.23mi
1314 Princeton Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1092	$2,400	$2.20	14d	1	0.29mi
1040 Indiana Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1232	$2,950	$2.39	14d	1	0.42mi
77 Race St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,700	$1.79	21d	1	0.55mi
416 Klagg Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1034	$2,300	$2.22	21d	1	0.55mi
42 Grant St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	14d	1	0.77mi
130 W Ingham Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1126	$2,000	$1.78	14d	1	0.83mi
1163 E State St Unit 9 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	775	$1,770	$2.28	21d	1	0.87mi
1165 E State St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	900	$1,749	$1.94	14d	1	0.87mi
24 New Trent St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,350	$1.76	14d	1	0.88mi
134 Old Rose St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1212	$2,300	$1.90	21d	1	0.89mi
417 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	992	$2,050	$2.07	21d	1	0.97mi
234 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	21d	1	1.02mi
219 Woodlawn Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1456	$2,355	$1.62	14d	1	1.03mi
339 Tioga St #339 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	864	$1,850	$2.14	21d	1	1.04mi
1100 Prospect St Unit 1 Ewing Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	21d	1	1.06mi
21 Adella Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1280	$2,000	$1.56	14d	1	1.08mi
25 Adella Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1280	$2,050	$1.60	14d	1	1.09mi
105 Walnut Ave Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	21d	1	1.12mi
125 Olive St Trenton, NJ	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	896	$1,392	$1.55	21d	1	1.17mi
756 Cherry Tree Ln Lawrence Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	1207	$2,200	$1.82	14d	1	1.17mi
550 Lawrenceville Rd Lawrence Township, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	910	$1,655	$1.82	21d	1	1.21mi
340 Connecticut Ave Unit 1 Hamilton Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	14d	1	1.25mi
340 Connecticut Ave Unit 2 Hamilton Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,850	$2.04	14d	1	1.25mi
202 E Hanover St Unit 5G Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	21d	1	1.27mi
2140 Princeton Pike Lawrenceville, NJ	2.0	1.0	952	$2,700	$2.84	21d	1	1.28mi
216 E State St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	811	$1,895	$2.34	14d	2	1.29mi
8 Joan Ter Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1397	$3,250	$2.33	21d	1	1.30mi
8 Belvidere St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1260	$1,900	$1.51	21d	1	1.35mi
428 Cleveland Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	21d	1	1.37mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 204 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,750	$1.73	21d	1	1.37mi
1474 Nottingham Way Hamilton Township, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$2,195	$2.83	21d	1	1.42mi
319 Rutherford Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	21d	1	1.44mi
635 Chambers St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1312	$2,500	$1.91	14d	1	1.47mi
1001 Pennington Rd Unit 1-2B Ewing Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	21d	1	1.47mi
121 Columbus Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,900	$1.81	21d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $174,000 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    remarks 345-char remark
12. 2026-06-01
    listed $174,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,634 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,983 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: +$349/yr (+$29/mo · 9.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$3,634
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,270
• − Management: −$2,270
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable income: $4,523
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,085
• After-tax cash flow: $5,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 22,816
• Household income: $66,875
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1185.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 43% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -286.00%
• Current HPI: 334.5143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.31%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+74.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $174,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-05 Sold (MLS) $182,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-29 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-21 Listed $182,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records
• 2022-07-22 Sold (MLS) $87,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-06-28 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2022-06-22 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-06-08 Listed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-06-06 Listed $99,900 MOMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,634 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.