621 Unionville Rd · Forsyth, GA 30204

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1997 3.25 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

No HOA! We have Engineered Foundation Certification that the Home meets the FHA Manufactured Foundation Home Specs * ESTATE HOME! RARE! 3.25 ACRES * In-Ground Pool * 4-Stall Pole Barn * Shop * Storage * In-Ground Swimming Pool * 2 Water Wells * Water Features * Needs Some Work. Lots of Potential. Call Joe Cox Directly to View this Home Today * Buy This Home, We Will Buy Yours!

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Water features
• 2 water wells

Tags

• IN-GROUND POOL
• 4-STALL POLE BARN
• WATER FEATURES
• 2 WATER WELLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.1% in Forsyth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#24 in GA, #3,557 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Monroe County (rural): math 43% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #22 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Samuel E. Hubbard Elementary School (math 48% / reading 41%, grade F, #336 of 1,228 statewide, top 29%, 732 students, 57% FRL); Mary Persons High School (math 21% / reading 57%, grade F, #59 of 424 statewide, top 14%, 1,287 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 281 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,511 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.15%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-14,169
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,681
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30204

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $871/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,274

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-12-08
   status Under Contract
2. 2025-12-02
   price $165,000
3. 2025-11-12
   price $179,900
4. 2025-11-03
   status Back On Market
5. 2025-10-27
   status Under Contract
6. 2025-10-09
   listed $199,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $871 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,518 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$647/yr (+$54/mo · 74.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 52% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$871
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,464
• − Management: −$1,464
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$365
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$88
• After-tax cash flow: $2,467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe County
• NCES district ID: 1303720
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,955
• Composite: 38.94/100
• National rank: #4084
• State rank: #22 of 174 in GA

Livability — Forsyth

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #3557

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 18,311
• Population (ZIP): 13,425

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,503 people
• By 2030: 28,940 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 29,157 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 28,646 · +0.5%
• By 2075: 27,261 · -4.4%
• By 2100: 23,757 · -16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 37% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.7) · D 26.5% · R 73.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -31.5pp · 2024: -46.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.7 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+41.4 2012: R+37.3 2008: R+31.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.00%
• Current HPI: 279.3141
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-17.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $165,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $179,900 GAMLS
• 2025-11-03 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-10-27 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $199,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $871 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.