6810 Papillon Ln · Pleak, TX 77461

$239,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $153/sqft · at area comps Est $238k · at est. $183/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Addison Floor Plan - This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Pleak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,221 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville Middle (math 56% / reading 56%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 819 students, 45% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,390
• List price: $239,990
• Delta: 0.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6810 Papillon Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,572 (0%)	1mo	$239,990	$153	99
6802 Papillon Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+4%)	0mo	$254,990	$156	92
4838 Summersweet Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+2%)	1mo	$226,791	$142	86
6806 Papillon Ln	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+5%)	1mo	$254,990	$154	85
5011 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-3%)	1mo	$216,090	$142	84
5030 Palamedes Swallowtail Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-8%)	1mo	$236,790	$163	74
5002 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+9%)	1mo	$232,540	$135	69
7507 Barcelona Spgs	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+2%)	0mo	$234,990	$147	69
5007 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+12%)	1mo	$236,240	$134	64
5015 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+12%)	0mo	$223,990	$127	64
7511 Barcelona Spgs	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-10%)	1mo	$206,991	$147	59
7510 Barcelona Spgs	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-11%)	1mo	$203,990	$145	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-45,336
• Equity at exit: $35,783

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-47,376
• Equity at exit: $20,750

Cash invested: $67,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77461

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,331

Max offer price $225,011

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $62	-5% $-21	+0% $-104	+5% $-186	+10% $-269
Rent	-10% $-277	-5% $-190	+0% $-104	+5% $-17	+10% $70
Rate	-1.0pp $17	-0.5pp $-42	base $-104	+0.5pp $-166	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,998
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4707 Pine Meadow Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,200	$1.38	4d	1	0.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   The Addison Floor Plan - This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-05-08
   price $239,990 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   The Addison Floor Plan - This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-05-04
   price $249,990 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   The Addison Floor Plan - This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-30
   price $259,740 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   The Addison Floor Plan - This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-04-28
   price $263,990 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   The Addison Floor Plan - This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-04-20
   price $267,190 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   The Addison Floor Plan - This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

7. 2026-04-17
   listed $271,440 Active 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   The Addison Floor Plan - This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,443
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$5,244
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,259
• After-tax cash flow: $16/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern design and open-concept floorplan. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from some cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and appeal.
• Resale Replace the front door — A new front door can enhance curb appeal and security.
• Rental Clean the windows — Clean windows can improve natural light and make the home more attractive to potential renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and appeal. ↑
• Resale Replace the front door — A new front door can enhance curb appeal and security. ↑
• Rental Clean the windows — Clean windows can improve natural light and make the home more attractive to potential renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pleak

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1221
• US rank: #21321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,397

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.17%
• Current HPI: 324.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $259,740 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $263,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $267,190 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $271,440 HARMLS