1930 W San Marcos Blvd #251 · San Marcos, CA 92078

$325,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 91 Days on market

Built 1972 3,999 sqft lot $242/sqft · 10% below area Est $362k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy wonderful sunset and ocean views from this home in highly desired Palomar Estates West. The kitchen has been remodeled with beautiful wood cabinets, solid surface counter tops, tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. The California room/enclosed porch can be used as an office, craft room, or grandkids playroom. The large side yard and front porch allows you to enjoy the ocean breezes and temperate San Marcos weather. The home is located right across from the beautiful clubhouse so you can walk to enjoy the great amenities the community offers. This home is on registration which means NO PROPERTY TAXES. Palomar Estates West is a 5 star 55+/35+ senior rent controlled park with many activities and amenities including a beautiful clubhouse, pool, spa, gym, putting green, pickleball courts, and tennis courts. This home is located minutes to Lake San Marcos dining and golf as well as local Carlsbad beaches, shopping, and restaurants.

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Remodeled kitchen
• Front porch

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• CALIFORNIA ROOM
• LARGE SIDE YARD
• FRONT PORCH
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $296k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.5% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#80 in CA, #3,074 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• San Marcos Unified (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #249 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 232 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $325k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $295,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.74%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $362,005
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -10.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1930 W San Marcos Blvd #425	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	2mo	$320,000	$238	93
1930 W San Marcos Blvd #374	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$385,000	$267	87
3535 Linda Vista Dr #50	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+2%)	1mo	$358,000	$262	84
650 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd #312	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$267,000	$199	82
3535 Linda Vista Dr #321	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$205	82
650 S Rancho Santa Fe. Rd #294	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	2mo	$228,500	$170	81
1930 W San Marcos Blvd #191	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	1mo	$310,000	$208	81
2010 W San Marcos Blvd #54	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$684,999	$510	77
3535 Linda Vista Dr Spc 29	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$250,000	$174	75
1930 W San Marcos Blvd #437	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (+14%)	2mo	$475,000	$310	70
650 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd #54	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	2mo	$260,000	$208	69
650 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd #118	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,153 (-14%)	2mo	$213,000	$185	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-33,706
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-27,753
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92078

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,394 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$713
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2010 W San Marcos Blvd San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1288	$4,000	$3.11	43d	1	0.34mi
3919 Las Cruces Ave San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	5d	1	0.52mi
830 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	826	$3,150	$3.81	2d	5	0.53mi
658 Las Flores Dr San Marcos, CA	3.0	1.0	1284	$3,650	$2.84	43d	1	0.55mi
3815 La Rosa Dr San Marcos, CA	3.0	1.0	1014	$3,700	$3.65	12d	1	0.63mi
910 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd Unit 1 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,900	$3.05	24d	1	0.65mi
3834 La Rosa Dr Unit A San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	1014	$4,200	$4.14	43d	1	0.68mi
1643 Rue de Valle San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.5	1086	$3,222	$2.97	17d	1	0.71mi
603 Beverly Pl San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.5	1068	$3,150	$2.95	43d	1	0.77mi
1029 Martina Ct San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,995	$2.50	43d	1	0.97mi
1635 Creek St San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0	1047	$3,450	$3.29	14d	3	0.98mi
1560 Circa Del Lago Unit D302 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1030	$4,500	$4.37	43d	1	1.09mi
1560 Circa Del Lago Unit D304 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1030	$4,500	$4.37	24d	1	1.09mi
420 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	896	$2,445	$2.73	2d	3	1.22mi
1241 W San Marcos Blvd San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	883	$2,400	$2.72	43d	1	1.23mi
920 Sycamore Ave Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,675	$2.82	3d	1	1.34mi
1052 Kendale Way Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1576	$3,795	$2.41	43d	1	1.35mi
320 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,675	$3.06	24d	1	1.44mi
320 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,675	$3.06	43d	1	1.44mi
1604 Via Inspirar San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1222	$3,850	$3.15	43d	1	1.44mi
300 Smilax Rd Unit 11 San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,675	$3.06	24d	1	1.45mi
1510 Calle Devanar San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1222	$3,595	$2.94	5d	1	1.45mi
266 Avenida de Suerte San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1132	$3,495	$3.09	21d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $325,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $325,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $325,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-04-20
    price $369,000 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    Enjoy wonderful sunset and ocean views from this home in highly desired Palomar Estates West. The kitchen has been remodeled with beautiful wood cabinets, solid surface counter tops, tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. The California room/enclosed porch can be used as an office, craft room, or grandkids playroom. The large side yard and front porch allows you to enjoy the ocean breezes and temperate San Marcos weather. The home is located right across from the beautiful clubhouse so you can walk to enjoy the great amenities the community offers. This home is on registration which means NO PROPERTY TAXES. Palomar Estates West is a 5 star 55+/35+ senior rent controlled park with many activities and amenities including a beautiful clubhouse, pool, spa, gym, putting green, pickleball courts, and tennis courts. This home is located minutes to Lake San Marcos dining and golf as well as local Carlsbad beaches, shopping, and restaurants.

15. 2026-03-28
    status Active 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    Enjoy wonderful sunset and ocean views from this home in highly desired Palomar Estates West. The kitchen has been remodeled with beautiful wood cabinets, solid surface counter tops, tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. The California room/enclosed porch can be used as an office, craft room, or grandkids playroom. The large side yard and front porch allows you to enjoy the ocean breezes and temperate San Marcos weather. The home is located right across from the beautiful clubhouse so you can walk to enjoy the great amenities the community offers. This home is on registration which means NO PROPERTY TAXES. Palomar Estates West is a 5 star 55+/35+ senior rent controlled park with many activities and amenities including a beautiful clubhouse, pool, spa, gym, putting green, pickleball courts, and tennis courts. This home is located minutes to Lake San Marcos dining and golf as well as local Carlsbad beaches, shopping, and restaurants.

16. 2026-03-20
    historical Active Under Contract 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    Enjoy wonderful sunset and ocean views from this home in highly desired Palomar Estates West. The kitchen has been remodeled with beautiful wood cabinets, solid surface counter tops, tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. The California room/enclosed porch can be used as an office, craft room, or grandkids playroom. The large side yard and front porch allows you to enjoy the ocean breezes and temperate San Marcos weather. The home is located right across from the beautiful clubhouse so you can walk to enjoy the great amenities the community offers. This home is on registration which means NO PROPERTY TAXES. Palomar Estates West is a 5 star 55+/35+ senior rent controlled park with many activities and amenities including a beautiful clubhouse, pool, spa, gym, putting green, pickleball courts, and tennis courts. This home is located minutes to Lake San Marcos dining and golf as well as local Carlsbad beaches, shopping, and restaurants.

17. 2026-03-19
    listed $385,000 Active 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    Enjoy wonderful sunset and ocean views from this home in highly desired Palomar Estates West. The kitchen has been remodeled with beautiful wood cabinets, solid surface counter tops, tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. The California room/enclosed porch can be used as an office, craft room, or grandkids playroom. The large side yard and front porch allows you to enjoy the ocean breezes and temperate San Marcos weather. The home is located right across from the beautiful clubhouse so you can walk to enjoy the great amenities the community offers. This home is on registration which means NO PROPERTY TAXES. Palomar Estates West is a 5 star 55+/35+ senior rent controlled park with many activities and amenities including a beautiful clubhouse, pool, spa, gym, putting green, pickleball courts, and tennis courts. This home is located minutes to Lake San Marcos dining and golf as well as local Carlsbad beaches, shopping, and restaurants.

18. 2010-02-12
    soldstatus $135,000 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Move-in Ready! Pride of Ownership throughout! All new kitchen with granite, stainless appliances, custom cabinets, fixtures; all white walls, custom drapes, plantation shutters, nice flooring, A/C, large private front yard, some ocean views, great corner lot with breezes, fruit trees, and many more extras! Close to Carlsbad Beaches, shopping, golf and entertainment. Great 5-star park. RV parking avail. Motivated Seller!

19. 2009-10-20
    listed $135,000 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Move-in Ready! Pride of Ownership throughout! All new kitchen with granite, stainless appliances, custom cabinets, fixtures; all white walls, custom drapes, plantation shutters, nice flooring, A/C, large private front yard, some ocean views, great corner lot with breezes, fruit trees, and many more extras! Close to Carlsbad Beaches, shopping, golf and entertainment. Great 5-star park. RV parking avail. Motivated Seller!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,258
• − Management: −$3,258
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $52
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13
• After-tax cash flow: $5,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634880
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,752
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #3093
• State rank: #249 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #3074

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 100,940
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 53,605
• Household income: $120,268
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1594.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -351.55%
• Current HPI: 358.3294
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.35%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+173.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $369,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-28 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-20 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $385,000 CRMLS
• 2010-02-12 Sold (MLS) $135,000 CRMLS
• 2009-10-20 Listed $135,000 CRMLS