9172 Collins Ave #214 · Surfside, FL 33154

$395,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 757 sqft · Condo public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2003 $962/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

BEST & RARE OPPORTUNITY! 1-Bedroom Line in the Building-Fully Renovated! OWNER MOTIVATED! Let’s talk bring your offer. Beautiful 1BR/1BA in Waverly Surfside featuring new appliances, white/gray porcelain floors, updated kitchen, washer/dryer, and small balcony. Spacious bedroom with ample closets and modern bath with double vanity. The building is located on the west side of Collins Ave, residents enjoy full access to the Waverly oceanfront amenities just across the street including direct beach access, pools, gym, sauna, volleyball court & BBQ area. Internet included. Parking in building. Boutique-style quiet building in a prime location, just minutes to Bal Harbour Shop

Key facts

• $962 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association-maintained heated pool
• Financial info: Pets allowed with conditions; restrictions may apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association fee covers amenities, common areas, hot water, grounds maintenance, structure maintenance, parking, pool(s), sewer, security, trash and water; Building amenities include clubhouse, community kitchen, fitness center, barbecue, picnic area, pool and elevators

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space (garage)
• Security: Closed circuit cameras; Fire alarm; Lobby secured; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Water service included in association; Sewer included in association; Electric service; Hot water included in association
• Home design: Condo/Apartment (attached property); Faces east; Entry on level 2; 12-story building
• Construction: Block construction; Resale property
• Exterior features: Balcony; Open balcony/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Unfurnished; First floor entry; Living/Dining room; Main living area on entry level; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-660 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (29.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $395k).
• Recommended offer: $278k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#258 in FL, #4,141 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ruth K. Broad Bay Harbor K-8 Center (math 76% / reading 76%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,249 students, 29% FRL); Miami Beach Nautilus Middle School (math 46% / reading 58%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 918 students, 44% FRL); Miami Beach Senior High School (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 2,175 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 64% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 523 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,328/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 774% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($371k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $395k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $278,335 (29.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.54%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.12% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $63,111
• Equity at exit: $251,417

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $196,835
• Equity at exit: $458,634

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33154

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 523
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,328 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$455 /mo · $5,464/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$962
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$909
• Net cashflow: $-660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,164

Max offer price $278,335

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-437	-5% $-549	+0% $-660	+5% $-772	+10% $-884
Rent	-10% $-1,002	-5% $-831	+0% $-660	+5% $-489	+10% $-318
Rate	-1.0pp $-461	-0.5pp $-560	base $-660	+0.5pp $-763	+1.0pp $-867

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $962 · $11,544/yr
• Likely covers: internetpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $395,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $395,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $395,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $395,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $395,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $395,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $395,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $395,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $395,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $395,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-03-30
    listed $395,000 Active
16. 2026-03-19
    historical
17. 2026-01-22
    price $399,000
18. 2025-09-17
    listed $420,000 Active
19. 2025-08-31
    historical
20. 2025-08-29
    price $420,000
21. 2025-05-21
    price $445,000
22. 2025-02-27
    listed $487,000 Active
23. 2023-12-02
    historical $2,699
24. 2023-09-16
    price $2,699
25. 2023-08-31
    listed $2,800
26. 2010-03-24
    soldstatus $140,000
27. 2010-02-11
    soldstatus $140,000
28. 2004-09-29
    soldstatus $33,500,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,464 · $455/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,464 · $455/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$5,464
• − Insurance: −$7,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,155
• − Management: −$4,155
• − HOA: −$11,544
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$14,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,381
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Surfside

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #4141

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surfside, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,572
• Household income: $89,563
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 774.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 25% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 12% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 7% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.12%
• Current HPI: 454.1747
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.30%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-98.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $395,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $399,000 MARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $420,000 MARMLS
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $420,000 MARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $445,000 MARMLS
• 2025-02-27 Listed $487,000 MARMLS
• 2023-12-02 Rental Removed $2,699 MARMLS
• 2023-09-16 Price Changed $2,699 MARMLS
• 2023-08-31 Listed for Rent $2,800 MARMLS
• 2010-03-24 Sold (MLS) $140,000 MARMLS
• 2010-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $33,500,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,464 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.