304 Morgan Mill Rd · Stephenville, TX 76401

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1940 9,932 sqft lot $141/sqft · 17% below area Est $272k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Versatile 3 bedroom 2 bath home on high traffic road. House can be a primary home, excellent investment property or would function well as a business location with the high traffic. Two large bedrooms with great closet space, two living areas. Home has a great flow to it and rustic aesthetics. Home has been consistently rented for the past five years. Has storage room and fenced yard for the fur babies! The house has foundation issues and has been priced accordingly. MOTIVATED SELLER! BRING OFFERS.

Key facts

• local amenities
• Two living areas
• dining

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• INCOME PRODUCING INVESTMENT
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• DINING
• LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Erath County, United States
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: One covered parking space; One carport space; Driveway with additional parking and storage
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Not attached to another property; Built in 1940
• Construction: Siding exterior
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lot; Lot in Sims Add subdivision; Directions: When coming from IH20 on 281, home will be on your right; just past Stephenville Golf Carts

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1; Two additional bedrooms on level 1
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Two living areas; Four total rooms; One-level layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($683/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.1% in Stephenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in TX, #3,840 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Stephenville ISD (town): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #191 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central El (422 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 42% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 383 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 110 units permitted in Erath County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erath County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,508 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.08%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,572
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -17.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
900 Sun Down	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-9%)	0mo	$345,000	$236	79
213 Morgan Mill Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,482 (-7%)	12mo	$255,000	$172	74
1442 Sun Dance	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,524 (-5%)	13mo	$359,000	$236	72
406 Morgan Mill Rd	0.19mi	3/3.0	1,553 (-3%)	14mo	$399,500	$257	71
930 Wind Song	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-10%)	7mo	$325,000	$224	69
910 Wind Song	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-7%)	17mo	$325,000	$218	66
1006 E Hook St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,723 (+8%)	2mo	$299,000	$174	63
1635 College Farm Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,715 (+7%)	3mo	$137,000	$80	62
925 Wind Song	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+12%)	23mo	$350,000	$196	51
455 S Lennox St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-6%)	13mo	$327,500	$218	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-38,659
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-51,529
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76401

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,045 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,420/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,973

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
525 W Collins Stephenville, TX	3.0	3.5	1938	$800	$0.41	44d	1	1.08mi
604 E Broadway St Stephenville, TX	4.0	2.0	1404	$2,400	$1.71	44d	1	1.14mi
794 W Pecan St Unit 101 Stephenville, TX	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,200	$1.43	44d	1	1.25mi
791 N Clinton St Stephenville, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,800	$1.55	44d	1	1.36mi
1713 Bingham St Stephenville, TX	3.0	1.0	1218	$1,750	$1.44	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $225,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $225,000 Active 587-char remark
17. 2025-10-08
    historical $1,725
18. 2025-09-07
    listed $1,725
19. 2025-08-27
    historical $1,725
20. 2025-07-27
    listed $1,725
21. 2023-09-05
    soldstatus
22. 2023-08-29
    soldstatus
23. 2023-08-04
    historical $1,650
24. 2023-07-19
    listed $1,650
25. 2022-06-05
    soldstatus Closed 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Versatile 3 bedroom 2 bath home on high traffic road. House can be a primary home, excellent investment property or would function well as a business location with the high traffic. Two large bedrooms with great closet space, two living areas. Home has a great flow to it and rustic aesthetics. Home has been consistently rented for the past five years. Has storage room and fenced yard for the fur babies! The house has foundation issues and has been priced accordingly. MOTIVATED SELLER! BRING OFFERS.

26. 2022-04-08
    soldstatus
27. 2022-04-01
    status Pending 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Versatile 3 bedroom 2 bath home on high traffic road. House can be a primary home, excellent investment property or would function well as a business location with the high traffic. Two large bedrooms with great closet space, two living areas. Home has a great flow to it and rustic aesthetics. Home has been consistently rented for the past five years. Has storage room and fenced yard for the fur babies! The house has foundation issues and has been priced accordingly. MOTIVATED SELLER! BRING OFFERS.

28. 2022-03-28
    price $120,000 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Versatile 3 bedroom 2 bath home on high traffic road. House can be a primary home, excellent investment property or would function well as a business location with the high traffic. Two large bedrooms with great closet space, two living areas. Home has a great flow to it and rustic aesthetics. Home has been consistently rented for the past five years. Has storage room and fenced yard for the fur babies! The house has foundation issues and has been priced accordingly. MOTIVATED SELLER! BRING OFFERS.

29. 2022-03-12
    price $130,000 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Versatile 3 bedroom 2 bath home on high traffic road. House can be a primary home, excellent investment property or would function well as a business location with the high traffic. Two large bedrooms with great closet space, two living areas. Home has a great flow to it and rustic aesthetics. Home has been consistently rented for the past five years. Has storage room and fenced yard for the fur babies! The house has foundation issues and has been priced accordingly. MOTIVATED SELLER! BRING OFFERS.

30. 2022-02-28
    price $140,000 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Versatile 3 bedroom 2 bath home on high traffic road. House can be a primary home, excellent investment property or would function well as a business location with the high traffic. Two large bedrooms with great closet space, two living areas. Home has a great flow to it and rustic aesthetics. Home has been consistently rented for the past five years. Has storage room and fenced yard for the fur babies! The house has foundation issues and has been priced accordingly. MOTIVATED SELLER! BRING OFFERS.

31. 2022-02-15
    price $150,000 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Versatile 3 bedroom 2 bath home on high traffic road. House can be a primary home, excellent investment property or would function well as a business location with the high traffic. Two large bedrooms with great closet space, two living areas. Home has a great flow to it and rustic aesthetics. Home has been consistently rented for the past five years. Has storage room and fenced yard for the fur babies! The house has foundation issues and has been priced accordingly. MOTIVATED SELLER! BRING OFFERS.

32. 2022-02-07
    price $165,000 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Versatile 3 bedroom 2 bath home on high traffic road. House can be a primary home, excellent investment property or would function well as a business location with the high traffic. Two large bedrooms with great closet space, two living areas. Home has a great flow to it and rustic aesthetics. Home has been consistently rented for the past five years. Has storage room and fenced yard for the fur babies! The house has foundation issues and has been priced accordingly. MOTIVATED SELLER! BRING OFFERS.

33. 2022-01-20
    listed $186,000 Active 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Versatile 3 bedroom 2 bath home on high traffic road. House can be a primary home, excellent investment property or would function well as a business location with the high traffic. Two large bedrooms with great closet space, two living areas. Home has a great flow to it and rustic aesthetics. Home has been consistently rented for the past five years. Has storage room and fenced yard for the fur babies! The house has foundation issues and has been priced accordingly. MOTIVATED SELLER! BRING OFFERS.

34. 2017-12-11
    soldstatus
35. 2017-11-22
    historical
36. 2017-10-24
    price $87,500
37. 2017-08-22
    price $95,500
38. 2017-08-21
    listed $92,500 Active
39. 2007-09-14
    soldstatus
40. 2007-07-24
    historical
41. 2007-07-13
    listed $78,000
42. 2003-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,420 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$697/yr (+$58/mo · 20.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,420
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,963
• − Management: −$1,963
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,080
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$739
• After-tax cash flow: $1,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stephenville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841520
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,565
• Composite: 42.23/100
• National rank: #3283
• State rank: #191 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stephenville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #3840

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stephenville, TX
• County: Erath County · 31,375 people
• City population: 31,375
• Metro: Stephenville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,375
• Household income: $61,210
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1758.0

Population outlook (Erath County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,437 people
• By 2030: 55,510 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 66,379 · +31.6%
• By 2050: 77,981 · +54.6%
• By 2075: 109,727 · +117.6%
• By 2100: 132,574 · +162.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 8% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erath

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.7% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.5pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+63.9 2016: R+65.5 2012: R+67.1 2008: R+54.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.71%
• Current HPI: 234.4986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Stephenville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+188.5% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-08 Rental Removed $1,725 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-09-07 Listed for Rent $1,725 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-08-27 Rental Removed $1,725 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-07-27 Listed for Rent $1,725 TURBOTENANT
• 2023-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-04 Rental Removed $1,650 TURBOTENANT
• 2023-07-19 Listed for Rent $1,650 TURBOTENANT
• 2022-06-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-04-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-03-28 Price Changed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2022-03-12 Price Changed $130,000 NTREIS
• 2022-02-28 Price Changed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2022-02-15 Price Changed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2022-02-07 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2022-01-20 Listed $186,000 NTREIS
• 2017-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-11-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-10-24 Price Changed $87,500 NTREIS
• 2017-08-22 Price Changed $95,500 NTREIS
• 2017-08-21 Listed $92,500 NTREIS
• 2007-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-07-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2007-07-13 Listed $78,000 NTREIS
• 2003-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,420 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.