7227 Grand Brooks Rd · Lake Wilderness, VA 22551

$190,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 590 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2003 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the charm of this inviting 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured home, nestled on a generous 2-acre lot in Spotsylvania, VA. Built in 2003, this home offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality. Step inside to find a cozy living space featuring new carpet and flooring and a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas. The well-appointed kitchen comes equipped with essential appliances, including an electric oven/range, refrigerator making daily living a breeze. The bathroom features a convenient tub shower combination, providing a relaxing retreat after a long day. Outside, enjoy the serenity of nature from your screened deck, perfect for morning coffee or even

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (2 spaces); Gravel driveway; Total of 2 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Well for water; On-site septic system; Electric heating, cooling, and hot water
• Home design: Manufactured / modular home; Single wide (13 ft. width); Historic designation (estimated)
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Above-grade other structure; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Screened porch; Shed; On-site septic; Well water

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Combination kitchen/dining area; Combination kitchen/living area; Tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer with hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 1.9% in Lake Wilderness — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#321 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Livingston Elementary (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 435 students, 64% FRL); Post Oak Middle (math 48% / reading 63%, grade B-, #186 of 342 statewide, top 55%, 665 students, 64% FRL); Spotsylvania High (math 41% / reading 81%, grade C+, #242 of 319 statewide, top 76%, 1,388 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 30% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,419 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.31%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-18,708
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,003
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22551

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $481/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,412

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $299	-5% $245	+0% $191	+5% $137	+10% $84
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $126	+0% $191	+5% $257	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $287	-0.5pp $240	base $191	+0.5pp $142	+1.0pp $92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $190,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-05-07
   historical Active Under Contract 1176-char remark
3. 2026-05-03
   listed $190,000 Active 1176-char remark
4. 2026-05-01
   historical $190,000 1176-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $481 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,077/yr (+$90/mo · 223.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$481
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$222
• After-tax cash flow: $2,517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spotsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103640
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,321
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1213
• State rank: #38 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Wilderness

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #11702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Spotsylvania County · 138,364 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 24,146
• Household income: $110,370
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Spotsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,292 people
• By 2030: 153,092 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 164,270 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 171,000 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 183,080 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 180,412 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spotsylvania

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 45.1% · R 53.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.42%
• Current HPI: 284.319
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Coming Soon $190,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $481 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.