829 Centerdale St · Lynchburg, VA 24501

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 930 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1939 5,624 sqft lot Est $161k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity. Longterm tenants and generates just under $700/month. The next-door property 901 Centerdale (MLS #365358)is available for purchase as well. Great city location close to downtown, shopping and Lynchburg University.

Key facts

• 5,624 sq ft lot
• Built 1939
• Listed 19 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $99,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$160,890) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: E.C. Glass High (math 42% / reading 84%, grade B-, #223 of 319 statewide, top 70%, 1,325 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 61% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lynchburg City Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $100k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,401 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.92%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,890
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1066 Brook St	0.11mi	2/1.0	918 (-1%)	10mo	$140,000	$153	84
706 Euclid Ave Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0	972 (+4%)	9mo	$173,000	$178	70
701 Mansfield Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	910 (-2%)	5mo	$182,000	$200	70
490 Oakley Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0	896 (-4%)	6mo	$155,000	$173	69
249 Mcwane Cir	0.51mi	2/1.0	932 (+0%)	9mo	$165,000	$177	68
223 Wadsworth St	0.14mi	2/1.0	794 (-15%)	1mo	$149,900	$189	68
1012 N Grand Ave	0.44mi	2/1.0	884 (-5%)	8mo	$149,900	$170	65
17 Beverly St	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,012 (+9%)	9mo	$159,900	$158	62
3428 Richmond St. St	0.65mi	2/1.0	986 (+6%)	1mo	$161,800	$164	59
707 Stuart St	0.39mi	2/1.0	822 (-12%)	6mo	$110,000	$134	57
2346 Aragon St	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,048 (+13%)	3mo	$139,000	$133	52
1303 Tilden Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+12%)	3mo	$200,000	$192	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-7,674
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,001
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24501

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,097 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $840/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $889

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
905 Centerdale St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	780	$895	$1.15	13d	1	0.03mi
216 Kenyon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1114	$995	$0.89	43d	1	0.11mi
318 Wadsworth St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	943	$995	$1.06	20d	1	0.15mi
2734 Fort Ave Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,450	$1.66	43d	1	0.17mi
317 Grove St Unit A Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	43d	1	0.18mi
2107 Park Ave Unit 4 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$785	$0.98	13d	1	0.38mi
803 Mansfield Ave Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	20d	1	0.39mi
1625 Shaffer St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	895	$850	$0.95	43d	1	0.43mi
106 Yeardley Ave Unit B Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1060	$895	$0.84	20d	1	0.43mi
2336 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1042	$995	$0.95	13d	1	0.51mi
2021 Rose Ln Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	836	$1,095	$1.31	20d	1	0.52mi
1401 Kemper St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1118	$707	$0.63	20d	6	0.61mi
202 Macon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	645	$1,195	$1.85	43d	1	0.71mi
1106 Pierce St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1018	$875	$0.86	20d	1	0.77mi
2245 Landover Pl Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	925	$870	$0.94	43d	2	0.88mi
1705 1st St Unit A Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	20d	1	0.89mi
2518 Carter St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,500	$1.37	43d	1	0.95mi
540 Monticello Ave Unit B Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	20d	1	1.04mi
4067 Fort Ave Unit 3 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	950	$995	$1.05	20d	1	1.06mi
900 Polk St Unit A Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1100	$895	$0.81	13d	1	1.13mi
2121 Langhorne Rd Lynchburg, VA	1.0	1.0	983	$1,475	$1.50	43d	1	1.17mi
1320 Saint Cloud Ave Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	44d	1	1.19mi
2205 Easley Ave Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	870	$1,400	$1.61	43d	1	1.20mi
317 Polk St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	925	$1,650	$1.78	43d	1	1.21mi
2121 Langhorne Rd Unit 11041092SF 2BR/2BA Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,495	$1.37	20d	1	1.22mi
2121 Langhorne Rd Unit 1103756SF 1BR/1BA Lynchburg, VA	1.0	1.0	756	$1,225	$1.62	20d	1	1.22mi
4300 Tremont St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,200	$1.07	43d	1	1.27mi
1810 Laurel St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	720	$995	$1.38	43d	1	1.29mi
1218 Shirley Rd Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	742	$950	$1.28	20d	1	1.36mi
1308 Clay St Apt 2 Lynchburg, VA	1.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	20d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $99,900 Active
3. 2007-07-30
   soldstatus $54,000
4. 2005-07-08
   soldstatus $37,500
5. 1980-07-15
   soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $840 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $840 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$840
• − Insurance: −$1,297
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,053
• − Management: −$1,053
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$101
• After-tax cash flow: $1,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 25,006
• Household income: $42,222
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1717.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.06%
• Current HPI: 223.6839
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1010.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $99,900 LMLS
• 2007-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
• 1980-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $840 · +43.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.