1761 Cobb Trl · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$479,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,934 sqft · Land · 208 Days on market

Built 2025 6,819 sqft lot $99/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

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Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Bonus room
• Ensuite bath

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• COVERED LANAI
• FLEX ROOM
• BONUS ROOM
• ENSUITE BATH
• WELL-APPOINTED LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Projected completion date in October 2025; Lease restrictions apply; Home warranty included
• Financial info: Other annual assessment noted
• HOA & community: HOA required (Legacy Preserve Homeowner’s Association) with quarterly fees; Monthly HOA approximately $99 (quarterly fee listed as $297); Association approval required; Community clubhouse, fitness center, park, pool, and tennis courts; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19 x 20)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Completed / New construction; Faces southeast
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton (model: HEMINGWAY)
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Tile roof; Block and stucco construction; Pond view; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Sliding doors; Sprinkler (metered)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Electric water heater; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $479k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $425k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $348k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $348k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $347,830 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-107,312
• Equity at exit: $71,420

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-158,244
• Equity at exit: $41,415

Cash invested: $134,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,478 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,512
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,902/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$99
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$730
• Net cashflow: $-305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,864

Max offer price $425,207

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-33	-5% $-169	+0% $-305	+5% $-440	+10% $-576
Rent	-10% $-579	-5% $-442	+0% $-305	+5% $-167	+10% $-30
Rate	-1.0pp $-63	-0.5pp $-183	base $-305	+0.5pp $-429	+1.0pp $-555

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,750
• Closing costs: $14,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	24d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $99 · $1,188/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $479,000 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $479,000 Active 207 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $487,000 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $487,000 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $487,000 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $484,000 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $484,000 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $484,000 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $484,000 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $489,000 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $489,000 Active 198 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $489,000 Active 197 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $489,000 Active 193 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $489,000 Active 192 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $489,000 Active 191 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $489,000 Active 190 DOM
17. 2026-05-24
    status Active
18. 2026-05-24
    price $485,845
19. 2026-01-01
    status Pending
20. 2025-12-24
    price $474,000
21. 2025-12-17
    price $477,000
22. 2025-12-10
    price $479,000
23. 2025-12-03
    price $484,000
24. 2025-11-19
    price $487,000
25. 2025-11-12
    price $489,000
26. 2025-11-05
    price $491,000
27. 2025-10-29
    price $492,000
28. 2025-10-22
    price $493,000
29. 2025-10-16
    price $494,000
30. 2025-10-08
    price $495,000
31. 2025-09-24
    price $496,000
32. 2025-09-17
    price $497,000
33. 2025-09-10
    price $498,000
34. 2025-09-04
    price $499,000
35. 2025-07-16
    price $500,990
36. 2025-07-02
    listed $510,990 Active
37. 2024-11-20
    soldstatus $5,319,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,902 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,976 · $331/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,073/yr (+$89/mo · 37.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,831
• − Property taxes: −$2,902
• − Insurance: −$2,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,339
• − Management: −$3,339
• − HOA: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$13,935
• Taxable loss: −$12,190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,926
• After-tax cash flow: $-729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-90.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-24 Price Changed $485,845 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $474,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $477,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $479,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $484,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $487,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $489,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $491,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $492,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $493,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $494,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $495,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $496,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $497,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $498,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $499,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $500,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Listed $510,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $5,319,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+51633.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,902 · +51633.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.