4015 Donalbain Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$168,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,322 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1981 6,710 sqft lot Est $208k · 19% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Make this home your own. Great home to make some wonderful improvements to. 3 bedroom 2 bath home ready for some improvements. Great sized lot, nice sized backyard. Don't miss out on this wonderful deal!

Key facts

• 6,710 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sandpiper HOA (annual fee $120)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1981; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mildred Jenkins El (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 623 students, 90% FRL); Dueitt Middle (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 773 students, 84% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 66% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $168k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.76%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,554
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4015 Donalbain Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,322 (0%)	0mo	$168,000	$127	100
4106 Donalbain Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,353 (+2%)	14mo	$239,999	$177	83
23303 Whittaker Way	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (+2%)	12mo	$192,500	$142	68
3715 Arbor Trails Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+3%)	4mo	$215,000	$158	64
3902 Adonis Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,462 (+11%)	13mo	$229,000	$157	55
3618 Yellow Arbor Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+5%)	14mo	$220,000	$159	52
4555 Algernon Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+3%)	16mo	$205,000	$151	52
23110 Ludgate Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+12%)	13mo	$220,000	$149	47
3519 Fiorella Way	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+1%)	20mo	$199,900	$150	47
3714 Yellow Arbor Drive Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,383 (+5%)	22mo	$239,000	$173	47
21818 Barred Owl Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,506 (+14%)	1mo	$250,000	$166	44
21523 Trilby Way	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,441 (+9%)	13mo	$210,000	$146	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-20,965
• Equity at exit: $25,049

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-24,648
• Equity at exit: $14,526

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$410 /mo · $4,923/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,736

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2427 Gianna Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,826	$1.03	7d	1	1.41mi
21027 Aldine Westfield Rd Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1034	$1,449	$1.40	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-20
   listed $168,000 Active
3. 2014-03-18
   soldstatus
4. 2012-10-31
   soldstatus
5. 2012-09-21
   soldstatus 203-char remark

   Show marketing remark (203 chars)

   Make this home your own. Great home to make some wonderful improvements to. 3 bedroom 2 bath home ready for some improvements. Great sized lot, nice sized backyard. Don't miss out on this wonderful deal!

6. 2012-09-21
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (203 chars)

   Make this home your own. Great home to make some wonderful improvements to. 3 bedroom 2 bath home ready for some improvements. Great sized lot, nice sized backyard. Don't miss out on this wonderful deal!

7. 2012-08-15
   historical 203-char remark

   Show marketing remark (203 chars)

   Make this home your own. Great home to make some wonderful improvements to. 3 bedroom 2 bath home ready for some improvements. Great sized lot, nice sized backyard. Don't miss out on this wonderful deal!

8. 2012-08-03
   listed $43,500 203-char remark

   Show marketing remark (203 chars)

   Make this home your own. Great home to make some wonderful improvements to. 3 bedroom 2 bath home ready for some improvements. Great sized lot, nice sized backyard. Don't miss out on this wonderful deal!

9. 1991-11-07
   soldstatus $42,000
10. 1990-01-01
    soldstatus $38,332

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,923 · $410/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,923 · $410/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$4,923
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,893
• − Management: −$1,893
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable loss: −$305
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$73
• After-tax cash flow: $2,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+338.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $168,000 HARMLS
• 2014-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-09-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-08-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-08-03 Listed $43,500 HARMLS
• 1991-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1990-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,332 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,923 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.