15834 Invergelder Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$340,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,973 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 2025 3,759 sqft lot Est $328k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Capeside floor plan from Chesmar Homes’ Courtyard Collection in Balmoral is a stylish two-story home with 1,977 sq. ft., featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a flex room, and a 2-car garage. It combines comfort and energy efficiency, built to high environmental standards with upgraded insulation and HVAC systems. Inside, it offers raised ceilings, granite countertops, designer cabinets, and GE appliances, while the outdoor areas include a covered patio and second-floor balcony. Located in a resort-style community with a Crystal-Clear Lagoon, parks, and walking trails, it's ideal for modern, relaxed living.

Key facts

• Low-maintenance yard
• Fitness center
• Clubhouse

Tags

• PRIVATE 2ND-FLOOR BALCONY
• LOW-MAINTENANCE YARD
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER
• POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association-maintained pool; Disclosures: Municipal Utility District disclosure and seller disclosure
• HOA & community: Property Owners Assoc of Balmoral; Annual association fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, common areas, recreation facilities; Community pool; Beach rights and beach access; Clubhouse; Fitness center; Playground; Picnic area; Park; Trails; Basketball court; Pickleball; Tennis court(s); Meeting/banquet/party room

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Driveway; Garage with garage door opener
• Security: Prewired for security; Security system owned; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2025; Living area approximately 1,973; Road access via concrete
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2025
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fence (back yard); Sprinkler/irrigation; Tennis court(s); Pond on lot; Backs to greenbelt/park; Side yard; Cleared lot; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Granite counters; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (17' x 13'); Bedroom on second level (14' x 11'); Bedroom on second level (12' x 11'); Total bedrooms possible: 3
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom on second level (13' x 13'); Bathroom on second level (12' x 5'); Half bath on first level (7' x 4')
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (gas); Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Balcony; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Bath in primary bedroom; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Walk-in pantry; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room on second level (7' x 6')

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-395 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centennial El (math 43% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 858 students, 38% FRL); Summer Creek H S (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 3,600 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,076 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $327,518
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15810 Black Grouse Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (+4%)	4mo	$340,000	$166	83
16426 Apache Woods Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,930 (-2%)	3mo	$364,900	$189	81
15627 Countesswells Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	2,105 (+7%)	2mo	$319,900	$152	77
15814 Black Grouse Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,756 (-11%)	3mo	$309,990	$177	74
12007 Texas Trumpet Trl S	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,984 (+1%)	2mo	$385,000	$194	66
15710 Cairnwell Bend Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	2,024 (+3%)	2mo	$325,000	$161	63
12226 Castano Creek Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,726 (-12%)	0mo	$329,900	$191	62
12511 Albright Grove Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5	2,152 (+9%)	1mo	$369,900	$172	58
15614 Harmony Terrace Ct	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,750 (-11%)	1mo	$259,000	$148	55
12718 Madison Boulder Ln	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,906 (-3%)	3mo	$297,487	$156	50
15843 Lost Anchor Way Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,760 (-11%)	2mo	$244,900	$139	44
12559 New Castle Park Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-14%)	2mo	$280,000	$166	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-57,357
• Equity at exit: $82,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-82,163
• Equity at exit: $87,607

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,601 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,100/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,101

Max offer price $282,834

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-160	-5% $-278	+0% $-395	+5% $-513	+10% $-630
Rent	-10% $-601	-5% $-498	+0% $-395	+5% $-292	+10% $-190
Rate	-1.0pp $-224	-0.5pp $-309	base $-395	+0.5pp $-483	+1.0pp $-573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	3d	1	0.27mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	44d	1	0.27mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	44d	1	0.69mi
11942 California Sister Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	25d	1	0.73mi
15713 Saxton Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1643	$1,999	$1.22	2d	36	0.85mi
14700 Chapman Woods Xing Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,340	$0.76	2d	1	1.07mi
15957 Woodland Hills Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,200	$1.46	44d	1	1.11mi
12138 Loch Muick Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,411	$1.28	6d	1	1.16mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 15984 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,134	$1.42	11d	1	1.17mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 3112 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,102	$1.40	3d	1	1.17mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,326	$0.99	6d	1	1.20mi
15863 Kinlough Dr Humble, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1326	$2,518	$1.90	3d	16	1.21mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	25d	1	1.27mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,743	$1.22	3d	1	1.39mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 16788 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,934	$1.35	44d	1	1.39mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,775	$1.24	11d	1	1.39mi
14935 Moonlight Mist Dr Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	970	$2,200	$2.27	3d	21	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $340,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $340,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $340,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $340,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $340,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $340,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $340,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $340,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 678-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $340,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$5,100
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,497
• − Management: −$2,497
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$10,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,573
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $340,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Listed $366,415 HARMLS