1028 Deer Creek Ln · McComb, MS 39666

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,179 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1987 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is nestled on a generous 1-acre lot and features a spacious great room, modern laminate flooring, and a freshly updated kitchen with sleek black appliances. 1-car carport with ample outdoor space, this property offers a perfect blend of indoor comfort and outdoor potential.

Key facts

• New stove
• Updated brick home
• Large yard

Tags

• UPDATED BRICK HOME
• LARGE YARD
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• NEW STOVE
• NEW MICROWAVE
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned General Residence District; Lot approximately 1 acre
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1-car carport; Concrete parking surfaces
• Security:
• Utilities: Community water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house, one story; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick construction; Block and slab foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Built (year from public records)
• Exterior features: Front porch on a slab; Private yard; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Other kitchen appliance(s)
• Bedrooms:
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Aluminum-framed windows; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Additional kitchen appliance(s)
• Laundry & utility:

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (2.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 6.5% in McComb — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#50 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mccomb School District (town): math 15% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #106 of 130 in MS (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,436 (2.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.98%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,604
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1028 Deer Creek Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+5%)	17mo	$92,000	$74	77
2074 Magnolia Pisgah Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,242 (+5%)	4mo	$95,000	$76	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-12,103
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,210
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39666

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,614 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,332/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,323

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $324	-5% $277	+0% $230	+5% $184	+10% $137
Rent	-10% $103	-5% $167	+0% $230	+5% $294	+10% $358
Rate	-1.0pp $313	-0.5pp $272	base $230	+0.5pp $188	+1.0pp $144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-23
   listed $165,000 Active
2. 2025-01-27
   soldstatus Closed 306-char remark

   Show marketing remark (72 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bathroom brick home on 1 acre in North Pike School District.

3. 2025-01-27
   soldstatus 72-char remark

   Show marketing remark (72 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bathroom brick home on 1 acre in North Pike School District.

4. 2024-12-16
   status Pending 306-char remark

   Show marketing remark (306 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is nestled on a generous 1-acre lot and features a spacious great room, modern laminate flooring, and a freshly updated kitchen with sleek black appliances. 1-car carport with ample outdoor space, this property offers a perfect blend of indoor comfort and outdoor potential.

5. 2024-11-18
   status Pending 306-char remark

   Show marketing remark (306 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is nestled on a generous 1-acre lot and features a spacious great room, modern laminate flooring, and a freshly updated kitchen with sleek black appliances. 1-car carport with ample outdoor space, this property offers a perfect blend of indoor comfort and outdoor potential.

6. 2024-11-08
   listed $92,000 72-char remark

   Show marketing remark (72 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bathroom brick home on 1 acre in North Pike School District.

7. 2024-11-07
   listed $92,000 Active 306-char remark

   Show marketing remark (306 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is nestled on a generous 1-acre lot and features a spacious great room, modern laminate flooring, and a freshly updated kitchen with sleek black appliances. 1-car carport with ample outdoor space, this property offers a perfect blend of indoor comfort and outdoor potential.

8. 2019-08-30
   soldstatus
9. 2019-08-30
   soldstatus
10. 2019-07-09
    listed $85,000
11. 2015-10-01
    historical
12. 2014-10-01
    listed $89,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,332 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,332 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,332
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,550
• − Management: −$1,550
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $73
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18
• After-tax cash flow: $2,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mccomb School District
• NCES district ID: 2802880
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $29,855
• Composite: 12.26/100
• National rank: #9645
• State rank: #106 of 130 in MS

Livability — McComb

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #8347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,985

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,766 people
• By 2030: 37,874 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 35,743 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 33,276 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 26,799 · -30.9%
• By 2100: 18,562 · -52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 36% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · China

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 51.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: 3.5pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+0.7 2012: D+7.6 2008: D+3.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.48%
• Current HPI: 113.9026
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+85.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $165,000 MLSU
• 2025-01-27 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2025-01-27 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2024-12-16 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-11-18 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-11-08 Listed $92,000 MLSU
• 2024-11-07 Listed $92,000 MLSU
• 2019-08-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-30 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2019-07-09 Listed $85,000 MLSU
• 2015-10-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2014-10-01 Listed $89,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,332 · +148.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.