900 Old Stockton #124 · Oakdale, CA 95361

$109,949

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 68 Days on market

Built 1978 $88/sqft · 21% below area Est $140k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and well maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offering 1,248 sq ft in a welcoming all-age park. While the interior retains its original character, the home has been exceptionally cared for and is move-in ready. Upgrades completed in 2024 include a new HVAC system, water heater, dual-pane windows, oven, hood, and refrigerator. Enjoy a unique outdoor touch with a functional koi pond, creating a peaceful space to relax. A great opportunity for buyers to bring their own style while benefiting from key updates already in place. This park also has it's own private access to the Stanislaus River for those who like to hike, fish and enjoy the outdoors.

Key facts

• Functional koi pond
• Dual-pane windows
• Water heater

Tags

• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• WATER HEATER
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• FUNCTIONAL KOI POND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $940 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 2.7% in Oakdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#412 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Oakdale Joint Unified (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #256 of 517 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,352 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.62%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,000
• List price: $109,949
• Delta: -21.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
900 Old Stockton Rd #104	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,213 (-3%)	8mo	$135,000	$111	89
900 Old Stockton Rd #511	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,167 (-6%)	2mo	$197,000	$169	87
900 Old Stockton Rd #211	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+12%)	2mo	$180,000	$129	77
900 Old Stockton #506 Rd #506	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,107 (-11%)	5mo	$140,000	$126	70
900 Old Stockton Rd #553	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+12%)	17mo	$229,000	$165	66
900 Old Stockton Rd #525	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+8%)	22mo	$164,000	$122	60
2505 Jackson Ave #160	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+10%)	17mo	$95,000	$69	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $42,060
• Equity at exit: $16,394

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $113,815
• Equity at exit: $9,506

Cash invested: $30,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95361

• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,151 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,649/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $940

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $109,949

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,487
• Closing costs: $3,298
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
243 Meadowlark Ln Oakdale, CA	2.0	1.5	932	$2,227	$2.39	14d	1	0.18mi
861 Cloverland Way Oakdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1322	$2,150	$1.63	14d	1	0.27mi
405 N 1st Ave Oakdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	14d	1	0.46mi
730 Walnut St Oakdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,500	$1.80	14d	1	0.56mi
333 Poplar St Oakdale, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	877	$1,575	$1.79	14d	3	0.73mi
333 Poplar St Oakdale, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	877	$1,575	$1.79	21d	3	0.73mi
313 S 2nd Ave Oakdale, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	14d	1	0.91mi
325 W H St Oakdale, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,475	$2.11	44d	1	0.96mi
425 S 3rd Ave Unit A Oakdale, CA	3.0	1.0	1027	$1,600	$1.56	14d	1	1.00mi
1253 Caballero St Unit 1253 Oakdale, CA	3.0	2.5	1300	$2,300	$1.77	14d	1	1.14mi
150 S Wood Ave Unit 214W Oakdale, CA	2.0	1.0	981	$1,703	$1.74	44d	1	1.23mi
150 S Wood Ave Unit 117W Oakdale, CA	2.0	1.0	981	$1,732	$1.77	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,949 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,949 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,949 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,949 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,949 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,949 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $109,949 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,949 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,949 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,949 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,949 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,949 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,949 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,949 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,949 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,949 Active 49 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,814
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,159
• − Property taxes: −$1,649
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,065
• − Management: −$2,065
• − Depreciation: −$3,199
• Taxable income: $10,128
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,431
• After-tax cash flow: $8,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakdale Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600062
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $60,377
• Composite: 32.1/100
• National rank: #5805
• State rank: #256 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oakdale

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #14042

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakdale, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 34,810
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,810
• Household income: $92,963
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1276.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Italian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -507.52%
• Current HPI: 283.0924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B