3944 W Camelback Rd · Phoenix, AZ 85019

$117,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Townhouse public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1972 2,126 sqft lot Est $183k · 36% under $149/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special! This property at 3944 W Camelback Rd presents a rare value-add opportunity. The home needs repairs and updating but offers excellent potential for the right buyer. Conveniently located near I-17 and route 60, providing quick access to Downtown Phoenix, major employers, and amenities. Perfect for investors or cash buyers looking to renovate and capture strong equity growth. Don't miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• Near route 60
• Strong equity growth
• Near i-17

Tags

• NEAR I-17
• NEAR ROUTE 60
• STRONG EQUITY GROWTH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Alhambra High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #281 of 381 statewide, top 75%, 2,282 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $812 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.01%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3944 W Camelback Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	0mo	$112,500	$122	100
5039 N 40th Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	4mo	$220,000	$238	92
4035 W Reade Ave	0.12mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	3mo	$166,000	$180	92
5202 N 42nd Ln	0.36mi	2/1.5	924 (0%)	2mo	$159,000	$172	80
4107 W Wonderview Rd	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,005 (+9%)	4mo	$212,000	$211	68
4041 W Reade Ave	0.13mi	2/1.5	1,005 (+9%)	13mo	$215,000	$214	66
4023 W Mesquite Ln	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,005 (+9%)	12mo	$230,000	$229	65
5203 N 42nd Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0	1,005 (+9%)	4mo	$194,000	$193	65
4043 W Palomino Rd	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,005 (+9%)	13mo	$220,000	$219	64
5251 N 42nd Ln	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,005 (+9%)	7mo	$192,500	$192	56
4615 N 39th Ave #16	0.41mi	2/1.5	1,026 (+11%)	10mo	$199,990	$195	52
5243 N 42nd Ln	0.38mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,005 (+9%)	10mo	$199,000	$198	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-6,765
• Equity at exit: $17,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $10,020
• Equity at exit: $10,159

Cash invested: $32,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85019

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,308 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$616
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $322/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$149
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,064

Max offer price $117,500

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,375
• Closing costs: $3,525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5041 N 40th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1005	$1,195	$1.19	1d	1	0.07mi
5030 N 40th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	924	$1,100	$1.19	1d	1	0.07mi
5040 N 40th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	924	$1,195	$1.29	1d	1	0.09mi
4029 W Mesquite Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	924	$1,195	$1.29	22d	1	0.10mi
4056 W Mesquite Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1005	$1,500	$1.49	1d	1	0.16mi
3734 W Camelback Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,249	$1.72	1d	1	0.30mi
4647 N 39th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	727	$1,000	$1.37	1d	1	0.36mi
4540 N 39th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$1,160	$1.93	15d	1	0.46mi
4540 N 39th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	810	$1,397	$1.72	1d	1	0.46mi
3839 W Hazelwood St Unit 5 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	995	$950	$0.95	1d	1	0.49mi
3839 W Hazelwood St Unit 5 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	995	$1,050	$1.06	24d	1	0.49mi
3807 W Hazelwood St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1121	$1,635	$1.46	1d	1	0.51mi
4326 N 35th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	520	$1,299	$2.50	1d	1	0.83mi
3450 W Missouri Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	560	$1,002	$1.79	1d	4	0.83mi
4336 N 35th Ave Unit 238 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	822	$1,099	$1.34	12d	1	0.86mi
4336 N 35th Ave Unit 202 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	822	$1,099	$1.34	1d	1	0.89mi
4413 W Bethany Home Rd Glendale, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$1,150	$1.92	1d	1	1.06mi
4441 W Bethany Home Rd Glendale, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$1,190	$2.16	1d	21	1.09mi
4235 N 35th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0	750	$1,362	$1.82	1d	13	1.11mi
4201 N 35th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	588	$1,399	$2.38	1d	3	1.13mi
4404 W Bethany Home Rd Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	665	$1,370	$2.06	1d	4	1.13mi
3515 W Rovey Ave Unit 3515-01 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	15d	1	1.17mi
4030 N 44th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	525	$1,195	$2.28	1d	16	1.24mi
6144 N 35th Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,775	$2.22	1d	1	1.30mi
5123 N 28th Dr Unit 5123-06 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,025	$1.28	1d	1	1.46mi
5201 W Camelback Rd Lot FC200 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	672	$1,400	$2.08	1d	1	1.49mi
4102 W Osborn Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,349	$1.61	1d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $149 · $1,788/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   status Active
3. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-14
   listed $117,500 Active
5. 2025-11-19
   status Pending
6. 2025-11-19
   historical
7. 2025-11-08
   listed $117,500 Active
8. 2025-08-26
   price $150,000
9. 2025-06-03
   listed $180,000 Active
10. 2025-05-02
    status Pending
11. 2025-05-02
    historical
12. 2025-03-19
    listed $180,000 Active
13. 2025-03-19
    historical
14. 2023-01-27
    soldstatus $160,000 Closed
15. 2023-01-27
    soldstatus $197,500
16. 2022-12-31
    status Pending
17. 2022-11-30
    status Active
18. 2022-11-29
    status Pending
19. 2022-10-28
    listed $198,500 Active
20. 2017-08-11
    soldstatus $89,000
21. 1985-06-04
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $322 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $776 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$454/yr (+$38/mo · 141.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,582
• − Property taxes: −$322
• − Insurance: −$588
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,255
• − Management: −$1,255
• − HOA: −$1,788
• − Depreciation: −$3,418
• Taxable income: $485
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$116
• After-tax cash flow: $2,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix Union High School District (4286)
• NCES district ID: 0406330
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,055
• Composite: 10.63/100
• National rank: #9773
• State rank: #224 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 27,429
• Household income: $68,528
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 806.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Two or more races 30% White 17% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 65% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 56% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.54%
• Current HPI: 424.8412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+201.3% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $117,500 ARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-08 Listed $117,500 ARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $150,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listed $180,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listed $180,000 ARMLS
• 2023-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $197,500 Public Records
• 2023-01-27 Sold (MLS) $160,000 ARMLS
• 2022-12-31 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-11-30 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2022-11-29 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-10-28 Listed $198,500 ARMLS
• 2017-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 1985-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $322 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.