111 Fox Crossing Dr · Roxboro, NC 27574

$310,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 2002 1.01 ac lot Est $281k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Motivated sellers!! Welcome home to this impeccably maintained ranch home, gracefully situated in a well-established neighborhood. This residence offers a thoughtfully designed floor plan, an inviting covered front porch, and a generous sized yard ideal for outdoor entertaining, gardening, or quiet relaxation. Two wired outbuildings provide exceptional storage or the perfect opportunity for a private workshop or hobby space. The attached 2 Car garage features a finished room, offering flexible space for additional living, a home office, or refined storage. This exceptional property offers the ease of single level living with plenty of space and comfort inside and out! Discover the charm and

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Attached garage
• Finished room

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE YARD
• TWO OUTBUILDINGS
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• FINISHED ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.5% in Roxboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#649 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Person County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #110 of 178 in NC (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Person High (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 1,079 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Person County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Person County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $265k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $282,100 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.61%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,088
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
155 Collin Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+2%)	1mo	$170,000	$108	84
170 Squirrel Path Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,462 (-5%)	12mo	$299,000	$205	79
164 Collin Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,654 (+8%)	17mo	$302,000	$183	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $189,955
• Equity at exit: $279,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.25×
• Total profit: $542,504
• Equity at exit: $602,262

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27574

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,842 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,886/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,420

Max offer price $310,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   price $310,000
3. 2026-03-04
   price $318,500
4. 2026-01-20
   price $325,000
5. 2026-01-02
   price $339,900
6. 2025-12-04
   price $345,000
7. 2025-11-18
   listed $350,000 Active
8. 2022-09-19
   soldstatus $265,000
9. 2013-09-12
   historical
10. 2013-05-30
    price $165,000
11. 2012-06-11
    listed $185,000 Active
12. 2002-05-09
    soldstatus $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,886 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,542 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$656/yr (+$55/mo · 34.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$1,886
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,728
• − Management: −$2,728
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$1,172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$281
• After-tax cash flow: $4,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Person County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,729
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #5242
• State rank: #110 of 178 in NC

Livability — Roxboro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #23536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,954
• Population (ZIP): 14,163

Population outlook (Person County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,577 people
• By 2030: 37,847 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,740 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 32,683 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 24,979 · -35.2%
• By 2100: 15,779 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Person

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.7) · D 37.7% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -23.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.7 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.68%
• Current HPI: 276.8767
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1575.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $310,000 TMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $318,500 TMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $325,000 TMLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $339,900 TMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $345,000 TMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $350,000 TMLS
• 2022-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-12 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2013-05-30 Price Changed $165,000 TMLS
• 2012-06-11 Listed $185,000 TMLS
• 2002-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,886 · +23.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.