233 Alpine Acres Rd · Valle Crucis, NC 28692

$299,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1988 0.47 ac lot Est $422k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Income-producing rental property with a solid rental history minutes from ASU campus. Cabin offers open kitchen, dining and living room area on the main floor with two bedrooms and two full baths (one is en suite). Lower level accessed via spiral staircase and offers open bonus area with laundry area. Downstairs currently used as a sleeping area. Main level has wood floors throughout and main floor has a large deck with nature views. Four-wheel drive or all-wheel drive is strongly recommended for those who plan to use the property year round. On a shared well and cost is $180 annually. Seller pays $200 annually for road maintenance. Bumped to $400 for next owner. Current lease runs thru July 2024. Tenants pay $1800/month. In order to terminate lease, new owners would have to give minimum 120 day notice of intent to evict to tenants, upon closing. Well water rights in deed. Road maintenance is informal. Previous inspection and engineer reports available.

Key facts

• Bonus living area
• Large covered deck
• Wooded scenery

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN AND LIVING LAYOUT
• LARGE GAS BURNING FIREPLACE
• LARGE COVERED DECK
• WOODED SCENERY
• SPIRAL STAIRCASE
• BONUS LIVING AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Private driveway with gravel parking
• Utilities: Shared well for water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Log construction; Two levels / 2-story
• Construction: Metal roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Has a view; Gravel road access (private maintained road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Propane heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Gas stone fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry in basement

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $299,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$422,400) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (37.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 0.8% in Valle Crucis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#659 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Watauga County Schools (rural): math 53% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 178 in NC (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Valle Crucis Elementary (math 43% / reading 57%, grade D+, #409 of 1,410 statewide, top 29%, 342 students, 43% FRL); Watauga High (math 76% / reading 74%, grade A-, #91 of 535 statewide, top 17%, 1,272 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 296 units permitted in Watauga County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• Watauga County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $188,261 (37.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $422,400
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
398 Old Danner Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,185 (-1%)	22mo	$365,000	$308	67
148 Woodby Ridge Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,376 (+15%)	1mo	$485,000	$352	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $110,359
• Equity at exit: $232,988

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $333,399
• Equity at exit: $467,474

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28692

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,883 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $840/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,238

Max offer price $250,360

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-111	-5% $-196	+0% $-280	+5% $-365	+10% $-450
Rent	-10% $-429	-5% $-355	+0% $-280	+5% $-206	+10% $-132
Rate	-1.0pp $-129	-0.5pp $-204	base $-280	+0.5pp $-358	+1.0pp $-437

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $299,900 Active
16. 2024-03-28
    soldstatus $230,000 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Income-producing rental property with a solid rental history minutes from ASU campus. Cabin offers open kitchen, dining and living room area on the main floor with two bedrooms and two full baths (one is en suite). Lower level accessed via spiral staircase and offers open bonus area with laundry area. Downstairs currently used as a sleeping area. Main level has wood floors throughout and main floor has a large deck with nature views. Four-wheel drive or all-wheel drive is strongly recommended for those who plan to use the property year round. On a shared well and cost is $180 annually. Seller pays $200 annually for road maintenance. Bumped to $400 for next owner. Current lease runs thru July 2024. Tenants pay $1800/month. In order to terminate lease, new owners would have to give minimum 120 day notice of intent to evict to tenants, upon closing. Well water rights in deed. Road maintenance is informal. Previous inspection and engineer reports available.

17. 2024-03-28
    soldstatus $230,000

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Income-producing rental property with a solid rental history minutes from ASU campus. Cabin offers open kitchen, dining and living room area on the main floor with two bedrooms and two full baths (one is en suite). Lower level accessed via spiral staircase and offers open bonus area with laundry area. Downstairs currently used as a sleeping area. Main level has wood floors throughout and main floor has a large deck with nature views. Four-wheel drive or all-wheel drive is strongly recommended for those who plan to use the property year round. On a shared well and cost is $180 annually. Seller pays $200 annually for road maintenance. Bumped to $400 for next owner. Current lease runs thru July 2024. Tenants pay $1800/month. In order to terminate lease, new owners would have to give minimum 120 day notice of intent to evict to tenants, upon closing. Well water rights in deed. Road maintenance is informal. Previous inspection and engineer reports available.

18. 2023-11-22
    status Active
19. 2023-10-26
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2023-08-28
    listed $255,000 Active
21. 2023-03-13
    status Active
22. 2023-03-06
    listed Active Under Contract
23. 2022-08-22
    listed $275,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $840 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,459 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,619/yr (+$135/mo · 192.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥88°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$840
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,807
• − Management: −$1,807
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$8,887
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,133
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watauga County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704830
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,936
• Composite: 46.49/100
• National rank: #2430
• State rank: #47 of 178 in NC

Livability — Valle Crucis

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #659
• US rank: #23675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,462

Population outlook (Watauga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,523 people
• By 2030: 63,047 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 68,332 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 73,638 · +23.7%
• By 2075: 86,964 · +46.1%
• By 2100: 99,206 · +66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 8% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Watauga

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+6.0) · D 52.3% · R 46.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+6.0 2020: D+8.3 2016: D+1.5 2012: R+2.7 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.25%
• Current HPI: 359.8685
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+9.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $299,900 HCMLS
• 2024-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-28 Sold (MLS) $230,000 HCMLS
• 2023-11-22 Relisted — HCMLS
• 2023-10-26 Contingent — HCMLS
• 2023-08-28 Listed $255,000 HCMLS
• 2023-03-13 Relisted — HCMLS
• 2023-03-06 Listed — HCMLS
• 2022-08-22 Listed $275,000 HCMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $840 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.