4571 Shadow Lawn Dr · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31210

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,113 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1952 0.40 ac lot $36/sqft · 54% below area ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime opportunity for investors or rehabbers. Great potential as a flip, rental, or portfolio addition. Priced to move - this deal won't last long! Schedule your showing today before it's gone!

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Built 1952
• Listed 92 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $608 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.6% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $40k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.31%
• DSCR: 3.91
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,686
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -54.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4571 Shadow Lawn Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,113 (0%)	1mo	$37,000	$33	94
4354 Barrington Pl	0.06mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,092 (-2%)	8mo	$145,000	$133	80
4606 Lakewood Ave	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,077 (-3%)	19mo	$119,500	$111	71
4418 Ayers Rd	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,012 (-9%)	17mo	$69,000	$68	65
4516 Bon Ayer Cir	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,026 (-8%)	12mo	$190,000	$185	60
3910 Thompson Rd	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-3%)	24mo	$60,000	$56	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $30,846
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.36×
• Total profit: $71,073
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31210

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,115 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $566/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $608

Break-even live

Break-even rent $346

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4353 Barrington Pl Macon, GA	2.0	1.5	1108	$1,000	$0.90	13d	1	0.10mi
4342 Barrington Pl Macon, GA	2.0	1.5	1092	$950	$0.87	21d	1	0.10mi
4357 Azalea Dr Unit 4357 Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	43d	1	0.18mi
4250 Ayers Rd Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	13d	1	0.27mi
4126 Ayers Rd Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	900	$750	$0.83	13d	1	0.39mi
200 Charter Ln Macon, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$1,525	$1.40	13d	18	0.57mi
4145 Forest Ave W Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1285	$1,195	$0.93	43d	1	0.70mi
4033 N Napier Ave Unit 6 Macon, GA	2.0	1.5	1000	$850	$0.85	43d	1	0.72mi
230 Roycrest Dr Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1261	$1,300	$1.03	43d	1	0.74mi
3834 Mercer St Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1000	$875	$0.88	43d	1	0.77mi
3840 Napier Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1365	$1,350	$0.99	13d	1	0.81mi
3775 Grand Ave Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,175	$0.95	13d	1	0.81mi
3576 Vineville Ave Unit 3550-D-LT Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	863	$995	$1.15	13d	1	0.89mi
3634 Dawn St Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	999	$850	$0.85	43d	1	0.94mi
133 Auburn Ave Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	880	$895	$1.02	43d	1	0.99mi
3413 Vineville Ave Unit 3419 Macon, GA	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,200	$1.00	21d	1	1.08mi
3324 Vineville Ave Unit 57C Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	914	$1,050	$1.15	13d	1	1.19mi
3324 Vineville Ave Unit 63B Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1125	$1,050	$0.93	21d	1	1.19mi
3330 Ridge Ave Unit D4 Macon, GA	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,050	$0.99	13d	1	1.22mi
3495 Charleston Cir Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1048	$875	$0.83	43d	1	1.23mi
3495 Charleston Cir Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1048	$799	$0.76	21d	1	1.23mi
3469 Kingsbury Dr Macon, GA	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	43d	1	1.28mi
3588 Morgan Dr Macon, GA	4.0	1.0	1080	$1,200	$1.11	21d	1	1.29mi
3266 Highpoint Dr Unit 593-B Macon, GA	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,100	$0.98	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Under Contract 195-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Prime opportunity for investors or rehabbers. Great potential as a flip, rental, or portfolio addition. Priced to move — this deal won’t last long! Schedule your showing today before it’s gone!

2. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Prime opportunity for investors or rehabbers. Great potential as a flip, rental, or portfolio addition. Priced to move — this deal won’t last long! Schedule your showing today before it’s gone!

3. 2026-04-03
   status Active 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (195 chars)

   Prime opportunity for investors or rehabbers. Great potential as a flip, rental, or portfolio addition. Priced to move - this deal won't last long! Schedule your showing today before it's gone!

4. 2026-04-03
   status Back On Market 195-char remark

   Show marketing remark (195 chars)

   Prime opportunity for investors or rehabbers. Great potential as a flip, rental, or portfolio addition. Priced to move - this deal won't last long! Schedule your showing today before it's gone!

5. 2026-03-25
   status Under Contract 195-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Prime opportunity for investors or rehabbers. Great potential as a flip, rental, or portfolio addition. Priced to move — this deal won’t last long! Schedule your showing today before it’s gone!

6. 2026-03-25
   status Pending 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Prime opportunity for investors or rehabbers. Great potential as a flip, rental, or portfolio addition. Priced to move — this deal won’t last long! Schedule your showing today before it’s gone!

7. 2026-03-16
   price $39,900 195-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Prime opportunity for investors or rehabbers. Great potential as a flip, rental, or portfolio addition. Priced to move — this deal won’t last long! Schedule your showing today before it’s gone!

8. 2026-03-16
   price $39,900 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Prime opportunity for investors or rehabbers. Great potential as a flip, rental, or portfolio addition. Priced to move — this deal won’t last long! Schedule your showing today before it’s gone!

9. 2026-02-18
   price $40,900 195-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Prime opportunity for investors or rehabbers. Great potential as a flip, rental, or portfolio addition. Priced to move — this deal won’t last long! Schedule your showing today before it’s gone!

10. 2026-02-18
    price $40,900 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Prime opportunity for investors or rehabbers. Great potential as a flip, rental, or portfolio addition. Priced to move — this deal won’t last long! Schedule your showing today before it’s gone!

11. 2026-01-30
    listed $43,900 Active 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Prime opportunity for investors or rehabbers. Great potential as a flip, rental, or portfolio addition. Priced to move — this deal won’t last long! Schedule your showing today before it’s gone!

12. 2026-01-29
    listed $43,900 New 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Prime opportunity for investors or rehabbers. Great potential as a flip, rental, or portfolio addition. Priced to move - this deal won't last long! Schedule your showing today before it's gone!

13. 2026-01-29
    historical $1,125

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Prime opportunity for investors or rehabbers. Great potential as a flip, rental, or portfolio addition. Priced to move - this deal won't last long! Schedule your showing today before it's gone!

14. 2026-01-19
    historical
15. 2026-01-10
    listed $1,125
16. 2026-01-10
    historical $1,125
17. 2025-12-18
    price $46,000
18. 2025-12-08
    price $49,000
19. 2025-11-21
    price $53,000
20. 2025-10-15
    price $56,000
21. 2025-09-18
    listed $59,000 New
22. 2024-09-18
    listed $1,125
23. 2024-09-18
    historical $1,125
24. 2024-09-05
    listed $1,125
25. 2024-08-23
    historical $1,125
26. 2024-07-24
    listed $1,125
27. 2024-04-30
    historical
28. 2024-04-30
    historical
29. 2024-02-23
    price $58,000
30. 2024-02-23
    price $58,000
31. 2024-01-30
    listed $60,000 Active
32. 2024-01-30
    listed $60,000 New
33. 2018-08-15
    soldstatus $20,000
34. 2018-08-03
    soldstatus $20,000
35. 2018-07-16
    listed $31,977
36. 2004-06-25
    soldstatus $49,000
37. 1997-03-28
    soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $566 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $566 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$566
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,071
• − Management: −$1,071
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,081
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,699
• After-tax cash flow: $5,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 33,288
• Household income: $78,447
• Rent vs Own: 45.3% rent · 54.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1845.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 32% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.60%
• Current HPI: 172.1313
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.71%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — FMLS
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-03-25 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-25 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $39,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $39,900 FMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $40,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $40,900 FMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $43,900 FMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $43,900 GAMLS
• 2026-01-29 Rental Removed $1,125 RentEngineListings
• 2026-01-19 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed for Rent $1,125 RentEngineListings
• 2026-01-10 Rental Removed $1,125 BUILDIUM
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $46,000 GAMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $49,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $53,000 GAMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $56,000 GAMLS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $59,000 GAMLS
• 2024-09-18 Listed for Rent $1,125 BUILDIUM
• 2024-09-18 Rental Removed $1,125 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-05 Listed for Rent $1,125 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-08-23 Rental Removed $1,125 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-07-24 Listed for Rent $1,125 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-04-30 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-04-30 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2024-02-23 Price Changed $58,000 GAMLS
• 2024-02-23 Price Changed $58,000 FMLS
• 2024-01-30 Listed $60,000 GAMLS
• 2024-01-30 Listed $60,000 FMLS
• 2018-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-03 Sold (MLS) $20,000 GAMLS
• 2018-07-16 Listed $31,977 GAMLS
• 2004-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1997-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $566 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.