32078 Willow Cir · Avon Lake, OH 44012

$449,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,364 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1986 9,866 sqft lot $190/sqft · 7% below area Est $482k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * 3 Bed | 2 Bath Ranch Home | 2,364 Sq Ft | Avon Lake, OH | Cul-de-Sac Location * * Welcome to your next opportunity in the heart of Avon Lake! Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home offers 2,364 sq ft of flexible living space on a unique . 2265-acre wedge-shaped lot. With a little vision and TLC, this home has the potential to shine! Step into a bright and open great room with a cozy fireplace, perfect for gatherings and entertaining. The eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into the living areas, offering plenty of space for dining and everyday living. The primary suite is privately situated apart from the other bedrooms and features a large layout with dedicated office space—ideal for remote work or quiet retreat. You’ll also enjoy main floor laundry for added convenience. Enjoy the outdoors from the enclosed patio or relax in the fenced backyard area, great for pets or gardening. The attached 2-car garage offers ample storage and easy access. * * * Important Note: This home requires updating and mold remediation. A quote for mold remediation and a pre-listing home inspection report are available upon request. This is a perfect opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize a home to their taste in a sought-after neighborhood. Don’t miss your chance to own in Avon Lake with great bones, generous square footage, and incredible potential. Sold AS-IS. * * Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Tile flooring
• Cozy fireplace
• One level living

Tags

• KOPF BUILT RANCH STYLE
• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• BRICK AND CEDAR EXTERIOR
• TILE FLOORING
• COZY FIREPLACE
• SEPARATE DINING SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Above-grade living area recorded by assessor
• Construction: Brick and cedar construction; Asphalt fiberglass roof; Built per public records (year built source: public records)
• Exterior features: Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Additional bedrooms located on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet in some bedrooms and rooms; Tile in living areas, dining room, and entry/foyer
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Wet bar; Fireplace (gas)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $445k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $436k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.2% in Avon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#52 in OH, #736 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Avon Lake City (suburban): math 78% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #48 of 656 in OH (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,450/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($116k/yr) (locally 290% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $330k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $436,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.20%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $482,407
• List price: $449,900
• Delta: -6.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
604 Bar Hbr	0.25mi	3/2.5	2,453 (+4%)	4mo	$607,000	$247	77
598 Chancellor Cir	0.25mi	3/3.0	2,226 (-6%)	1mo	$560,000	$252	74
648 Landerwood Ln	0.48mi	3/2.5	2,355 (-0%)	2mo	$455,000	$193	74
396 Creekside Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,442 (+3%)	4mo	$542,500	$222	70
32068 Dorchester Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,204 (-7%)	3mo	$430,000	$195	65
558 Brennans Ct	0.69mi	3/2.5	2,406 (+2%)	5mo	$540,000	$224	59
718 Wedgewood Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,192 (-7%)	1mo	$508,000	$232	56
31766 Walker Rd	0.73mi	3/2.5	2,220 (-6%)	0mo	$558,000	$251	53
32041 Kossuth Dr	0.40mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,152 (-9%)	3mo	$620,000	$288	53
32290 Orchard Park Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5	2,174 (-8%)	0mo	$465,000	$214	52
588 S Port Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,662 (+13%)	3mo	$740,000	$278	51
611 Arborside Ln	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,671 (+13%)	3mo	$470,000	$176	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-44,770
• Equity at exit: $67,082

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-2,632
• Equity at exit: $38,899

Cash invested: $125,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44012

• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax from tax record: −$528 /mo · $6,331/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$934
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,892

Max offer price $449,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $696	-5% $568	+0% $441	+5% $314	+10% $186
Rent	-10% $89	-5% $265	+0% $441	+5% $617	+10% $793
Rate	-1.0pp $668	-0.5pp $555	base $441	+0.5pp $324	+1.0pp $206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,475
• Closing costs: $13,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32071 Lake Rd Unit 1496051P Avon Lake, OH	4.0	2.5	1603	$7,861	$4.90	8d	1	1.34mi
384 Bradley Rd Bay Village, OH	3.0	2.5	2000	$4,100	$2.05	8d	1	1.50mi
384 Bradley Rd Bay Village, OH	3.0	3.0	2000	$4,100	$2.05	4d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $449,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $455,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $455,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $455,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $455,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $455,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $455,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $455,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $455,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $455,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $455,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $455,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $459,000 Active 1722-char remark
17. 2026-01-05
    status Pending 1503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1503 chars)

    * * 3 Bed | 2 Bath Ranch Home | 2,364 Sq Ft | Avon Lake, OH | Cul-de-Sac Location * * Welcome to your next opportunity in the heart of Avon Lake! Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home offers 2,364 sq ft of flexible living space on a unique . 2265-acre wedge-shaped lot. With a little vision and TLC, this home has the potential to shine! Step into a bright and open great room with a cozy fireplace, perfect for gatherings and entertaining. The eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into the living areas, offering plenty of space for dining and everyday living. The primary suite is privately situated apart from the other bedrooms and features a large layout with dedicated office space—ideal for remote work or quiet retreat. You’ll also enjoy main floor laundry for added convenience. Enjoy the outdoors from the enclosed patio or relax in the fenced backyard area, great for pets or gardening. The attached 2-car garage offers ample storage and easy access. * * * Important Note: This home requires updating and mold remediation. A quote for mold remediation and a pre-listing home inspection report are available upon request. This is a perfect opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize a home to their taste in a sought-after neighborhood. Don’t miss your chance to own in Avon Lake with great bones, generous square footage, and incredible potential. Sold AS-IS. * * Schedule your private showing today!

18. 2026-01-05
    soldstatus $330,000 Closed 1503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1503 chars)

    * * 3 Bed | 2 Bath Ranch Home | 2,364 Sq Ft | Avon Lake, OH | Cul-de-Sac Location * * Welcome to your next opportunity in the heart of Avon Lake! Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home offers 2,364 sq ft of flexible living space on a unique . 2265-acre wedge-shaped lot. With a little vision and TLC, this home has the potential to shine! Step into a bright and open great room with a cozy fireplace, perfect for gatherings and entertaining. The eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into the living areas, offering plenty of space for dining and everyday living. The primary suite is privately situated apart from the other bedrooms and features a large layout with dedicated office space—ideal for remote work or quiet retreat. You’ll also enjoy main floor laundry for added convenience. Enjoy the outdoors from the enclosed patio or relax in the fenced backyard area, great for pets or gardening. The attached 2-car garage offers ample storage and easy access. * * * Important Note: This home requires updating and mold remediation. A quote for mold remediation and a pre-listing home inspection report are available upon request. This is a perfect opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize a home to their taste in a sought-after neighborhood. Don’t miss your chance to own in Avon Lake with great bones, generous square footage, and incredible potential. Sold AS-IS. * * Schedule your private showing today!

19. 2025-11-25
    historical Contingent 1503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1503 chars)

    * * 3 Bed | 2 Bath Ranch Home | 2,364 Sq Ft | Avon Lake, OH | Cul-de-Sac Location * * Welcome to your next opportunity in the heart of Avon Lake! Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home offers 2,364 sq ft of flexible living space on a unique . 2265-acre wedge-shaped lot. With a little vision and TLC, this home has the potential to shine! Step into a bright and open great room with a cozy fireplace, perfect for gatherings and entertaining. The eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into the living areas, offering plenty of space for dining and everyday living. The primary suite is privately situated apart from the other bedrooms and features a large layout with dedicated office space—ideal for remote work or quiet retreat. You’ll also enjoy main floor laundry for added convenience. Enjoy the outdoors from the enclosed patio or relax in the fenced backyard area, great for pets or gardening. The attached 2-car garage offers ample storage and easy access. * * * Important Note: This home requires updating and mold remediation. A quote for mold remediation and a pre-listing home inspection report are available upon request. This is a perfect opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize a home to their taste in a sought-after neighborhood. Don’t miss your chance to own in Avon Lake with great bones, generous square footage, and incredible potential. Sold AS-IS. * * Schedule your private showing today!

20. 2025-09-16
    listed $399,000 Active 1503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1503 chars)

    * * 3 Bed | 2 Bath Ranch Home | 2,364 Sq Ft | Avon Lake, OH | Cul-de-Sac Location * * Welcome to your next opportunity in the heart of Avon Lake! Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home offers 2,364 sq ft of flexible living space on a unique . 2265-acre wedge-shaped lot. With a little vision and TLC, this home has the potential to shine! Step into a bright and open great room with a cozy fireplace, perfect for gatherings and entertaining. The eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into the living areas, offering plenty of space for dining and everyday living. The primary suite is privately situated apart from the other bedrooms and features a large layout with dedicated office space—ideal for remote work or quiet retreat. You’ll also enjoy main floor laundry for added convenience. Enjoy the outdoors from the enclosed patio or relax in the fenced backyard area, great for pets or gardening. The attached 2-car garage offers ample storage and easy access. * * * Important Note: This home requires updating and mold remediation. A quote for mold remediation and a pre-listing home inspection report are available upon request. This is a perfect opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize a home to their taste in a sought-after neighborhood. Don’t miss your chance to own in Avon Lake with great bones, generous square footage, and incredible potential. Sold AS-IS. * * Schedule your private showing today!

21. 1989-05-25
    soldstatus $164,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,331 · $528/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,675 · $556/mo
• Expected delta: +$344/yr (+$29/mo · 5.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,201
• − Property taxes: −$6,331
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,272
• − Management: −$4,272
• − Depreciation: −$13,088
• Taxable loss: −$2,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$484
• After-tax cash flow: $5,776/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avon Lake City
• NCES district ID: 3904812
• Math proficiency: 78% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,608
• Composite: 69.66/100
• National rank: #296
• State rank: #48 of 656 in OH

Livability — Avon Lake

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #736

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avon Lake, OH
• County: Lorain County · 219,437 people
• City population: 25,752
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• Population (ZIP): 25,752
• Household income: $115,567
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 290.0

Population outlook (Lorain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,924 people
• By 2030: 317,546 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 317,962 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 312,872 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 301,806 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 278,271 · -11.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lorain

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 46.7% · R 52.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.9pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+0.3 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.16%
• Current HPI: 207.1177
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+174.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $449,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $455,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-14 Listed $459,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-01-05 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-01-05 Sold (MLS) $330,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-11-25 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2025-09-16 Listed $399,000 MLSNOW
• 1989-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $164,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,331 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.