27800 Old Stage Rd · Oak Run, CA 96069

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Other public records · 178 Days on market

Built 1981 14 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The property is sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller has no knowledge, buyer should perform their due diligence and make their own assessments. All Offers to be submitted to the CastleRock Asset Manager.

Key facts

• 14.4 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Other utility services
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Stucco construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Dirt road access; Has a view; No pool

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $624 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $985 of equity ($967 loan paydown + $18 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $105k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.12%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $35,743
• Equity at exit: $40,714

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $100,769
• Equity at exit: $49,014

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96069

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,961 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,596/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,171

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 164 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 162 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 161 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 160 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 159 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 158 DOM
18. 2025-12-20
    listed $139,900 Active
19. 2002-09-13
    soldstatus $105,000
20. 1998-06-12
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,596 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,596 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 4 d/yr ≥101°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,529
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,596
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,882
• − Management: −$1,882
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $5,562
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,335
• After-tax cash flow: $6,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oak Run

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,371
• Population (ZIP): 1,371

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 26% Hispanic / Latino 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Serbian 4% Scottish 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.01%
• Current HPI: 107.5676
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+33.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-20 Listed $139,900 SAOR
• 2002-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 1998-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,596 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.