Deerbrook Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$276,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,602 sqft · SingleFamily · 219 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first level of this two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan shared between the family room, U-shaped kitchen and dining room. The expansive owner's suite is situated at the back of the home. Three more bedrooms and a full bathroom occupy the top floor.

Key facts

• U-shaped kitchen
• Open floorplan
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• U-SHAPED KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $276,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $347,578.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $277k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-698 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laura B Negley El (math 42% / reading 51%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 1,007 students, 29% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2406 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,702 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.61%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,578
• List price: $276,999
• Delta: -20.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
388 Barcelona	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,768 (+10%)	3mo	$310,000	$175	76
261 Madrid	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (+8%)	5mo	$299,900	$174	69
149 Bugbee	0.70mi	4/2.5	1,602 (0%)	5mo	$261,990	$164	61
131 Rains	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,762 (+10%)	5mo	$299,900	$170	53
3340 Everett St	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,774 (+11%)	5mo	$342,990	$193	50
3300 Everett St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,774 (+11%)	6mo	$338,990	$191	49
245 Keefer	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,774 (+11%)	2mo	$341,990	$193	48
3275 Everett	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,774 (+11%)	5mo	$343,999	$194	48
1700 Sanders	0.60mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,746 (+9%)	5mo	$269,000	$154	44
285 Keefer	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-10%)	2mo	$277,990	$192	44
141 Bugbee	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-10%)	5mo	$243,990	$168	42
173 Bugbee	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,427 (-11%)	5mo	$244,990	$172	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-107,066
• Equity at exit: $51,825

10-year hold

• IRR: -68.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.80×
• Total profit: $-174,772
• Equity at exit: $30,052

Cash invested: $97,322 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 58 active · 35 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.7 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $323,500 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 105 d
• This list price: 28% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2406
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,157 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,823
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$434 /mo · $5,214/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-698

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,041

Max offer price $246,578

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-458	-5% $-578	+0% $-698	+5% $-818	+10% $-938
Rent	-10% $-868	-5% $-783	+0% $-698	+5% $-613	+10% $-528
Rate	-1.0pp $-523	-0.5pp $-610	base $-698	+0.5pp $-788	+1.0pp $-880

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,894
• Closing costs: $10,427
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
440 Doherty Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	1969	$2,199	$1.12	83d	1	0.03mi
388 Barcelona Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,200	$1.24	74d	1	0.08mi
161 Santa Julia Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$2,200	$1.14	2d	1	0.09mi
1181 Dorn Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,825	$1.37	74d	1	0.10mi
541 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,950	$1.53	100d	1	0.10mi
321 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,600	$2.04	113d	1	0.13mi
361 Madrid Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	1969	$2,095	$1.06	28d	1	0.13mi
341 Madrid Kyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1611	$1,900	$1.18	9d	1	0.14mi
201 Edwin Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,800	$1.35	67d	1	0.15mi
250 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,899	$1.49	108d	1	0.17mi
889 Powell St Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1882	$1,799	$0.96	78d	1	0.18mi
889 Powell St Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1879	$2,000	$1.06	28d	1	0.18mi
889 Powell St Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1882	$2,249	$1.20	98d	1	0.18mi
905 Powell St Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1879	$2,300	$1.22	113d	1	0.18mi
1054 Dorn Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,875	$1.17	67d	1	0.18mi
1054 Dorn Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,875	$1.17	74d	1	0.18mi
239 Barcelona Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	1971	$2,250	$1.14	42d	1	0.19mi
239 Barcelona Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	1971	$2,099	$1.06	6d	1	0.19mi
220 Barcelona Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,150	$1.21	78d	1	0.19mi
228 Patagonia Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,900	$1.54	67d	1	0.22mi
252 Patagonia Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1434	$1,800	$1.26	62d	1	0.22mi
139 Madrid Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1914	$2,149	$1.12	67d	1	0.23mi
510 Kohlers Xing Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,731	$1.77	3d	21	0.24mi
510 Kohlers Xing Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,731	$1.77	139d	1	0.24mi
167 Rioja Kyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1569	$2,300	$1.47	139d	1	0.26mi
167 Rioja Unit (Main House) Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1569	$1,850	$1.18	3d	1	0.26mi
381 Jack Ryan Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,150	$1.34	9d	1	0.28mi
460 Buenos Aires Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$2,200	$1.37	76d	1	0.28mi
171 Mendoza Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$2,195	$1.37	6d	1	0.30mi
500 Jack Ryan Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	113d	1	0.30mi
121 Greene Kyle, TX	3.0	3.0	2176	$2,200	$1.01	28d	1	0.40mi
216 Jeffers Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,095	$1.29	119d	1	0.42mi
3875 Burnham Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,793	$2.92	42d	42	0.45mi
158 Gresham Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2031	$2,299	$1.13	28d	1	0.47mi
337 Jeffers Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1895	$2,199	$1.16	83d	1	0.47mi
373 Jeffers Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2035	$2,190	$1.08	139d	1	0.49mi
1007 Harwell Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1819	$2,750	$1.51	67d	1	0.51mi
4300 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	906	$2,690	$2.97	3d	31	0.55mi
162 Rains Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$2,200	$1.44	6d	1	0.56mi
1612 Sanders Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1137	$1,800	$1.58	6d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $276,999 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $276,999 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $276,999 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $276,999 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $276,999 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $276,999 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $276,999 Active 213 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $276,999 Active 212 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $276,999 Active 211 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $276,999 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    price $276,999 Active 209 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $275,999 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $275,999 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $275,999 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $275,999 Active 201 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $275,999 Active 200 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $275,999 Active 199 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $275,999 Active 196 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $275,999 Active 195 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $275,999 Active 194 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $275,999 Active 193 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $275,999 Active 192 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $275,999 Active 190 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $275,999 Active 189 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $275,999 Active 188 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $275,999 Active 187 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $275,999 Active 186 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $275,999 Active 185 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $275,999 Active 184 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $275,999 Active 183 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $275,999 Active 182 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $275,999 Active 181 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $275,999 Active 180 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $275,999 Active 179 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $275,999 Active 178 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $275,999 Active 176 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $275,999 Active 175 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $275,999 Active 174 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $275,999 Active 173 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $275,999 Active 171 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $275,999 Active 170 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $275,999 Active 169 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $275,999 Active 168 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $275,999 Active 165 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $275,999 Active 163 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $275,999 Active 162 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $275,999 Active 160 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $275,999 Active 158 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $275,999 Active 157 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $275,999 Active 156 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,470
• − Property taxes: −$5,214
• − Insurance: −$1,738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,071
• − Management: −$2,071
• − Depreciation: −$10,111
• Taxable loss: −$14,790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,550
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,010–$24,030 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious open floorplan and a move-in-ready interior.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase rental appeal. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Laura B Negley El D- TX #1,080/4,322 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle R C Barton Middle B- TX #270/1,662 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Jack C Hays H S F TX #697/1,632 Nat'l #7,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $273,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $274,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $274,990 Zillow