176 Dogwood Cir · Sardis, MS 38666

$61,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 1991 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PERFECT WEEKEND SPOT! - for the fisher's and side by side /ATV riders out there! This home is only 4.5 mile from the Sardis lake/Dam. This home has large open den/kitchen area, Laminate wood floors in Den. This home has 3 bdrs, 2 baths. The bath to master has a new converted shower unit (see in pics), house comes furnished with all the furniture to include the refrigerator and new electric fireplace. Seller has workable propane central heat, but uses a mini split unit instead for heat and air- because saves on the utility bills, This home has a large carport for Pontoon storage. Seller is selling this home as- is. ..

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1991

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $962 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $62k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#235 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• North Panola School District (rural): math 2% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #129 of 130 in MS (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 94% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: North Panola Middle School (math 4% / reading 10%, grade F, #170 of 179 statewide, top 95%, 281 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Panola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $428 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Panola County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.58%
• DSCR: 3.96
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1773 King Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,393 (+13%)	11mo	$174,500	$125	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $51,247
• Equity at exit: $9,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.13×
• Total profit: $123,602
• Equity at exit: $5,352

Cash invested: $17,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38666

• Home prices YoY: -8.3%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,759 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$325
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$77 /mo · $928/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $962

Break-even live

Break-even rent $541

Max offer price $61,900

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,004	-5% $983	+0% $962	+5% $940	+10% $919
Rent	-10% $823	-5% $892	+0% $962	+5% $1,031	+10% $1,101
Rate	-1.0pp $993	-0.5pp $977	base $962	+0.5pp $946	+1.0pp $929

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,475
• Closing costs: $1,857
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-07
   listed $61,900 Active
3. 2021-10-11
   historical
4. 2021-10-11
   historical
5. 2016-03-28
   soldstatus
6. 2015-10-02
   historical
7. 2015-08-12
   listed $54,900
8. 2015-02-08
   listed $45,000
9. 2011-04-15
   listed $48,000
10. 2006-11-01
    soldstatus
11. 2004-10-20
    listed $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,467
• − Property taxes: −$928
• − Insurance: −$310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$1,801
• Taxable income: $11,223
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,693
• After-tax cash flow: $8,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Panola School District
• NCES district ID: 2803210
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $32,344
• Composite: 3.77/100
• National rank: #10066
• State rank: #129 of 130 in MS

Livability — Sardis

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #19654

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,258

Population outlook (Panola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,645 people
• By 2030: 31,477 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 28,894 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 26,108 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 19,292 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 12,787 · -60.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 54% White 42% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Panola

• 2024 margin: R (+14.8) · D 42.0% · R 56.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.4pp toward R · 2008: 6.5pp · 2024: -14.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+8.6 2008: D+6.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.45%
• Current HPI: 192.5985
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+243.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-07 Listed $61,900 MLSU
• 2021-10-11 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-11 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2016-03-28 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2015-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2015-08-12 Listed $54,900 MLSU
• 2015-02-08 Listed $45,000 MLSU
• 2011-04-15 Listed $48,000 MLSU
• 2006-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-10-20 Listed $18,000 MLSU

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2019): $91 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.