23581 Wagner Ave · Warren, MI 48089

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 937 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1938 7,841 sqft lot Est $122k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large 2 bedroom home in quiet neighborhood with extra large lots. Most everything had been updated in 2022 including the kitchen (cabinets & countertops), all flooring throughout, fresh paint, new roof and windows, hot water tank, new electrical service outside and new panel inside, large section of driveway is new concrete along with the sidewalk to house. All appliances are newer and included in the sale. Unfinished attic with pull down stairs is huge and great for storage, maybe one day it could be finished for a 3rd bedroom. This house passed C of O in 2022 and has a current landlord license. Pictures prior to tenant moving in, all C of O docs, and approved permits are available upon request. Agent owned.

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• New panel
• Extra large lots

Tags

• EXTRA LARGE LOTS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• NEW PANEL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Deck; Fenced yard; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Has heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Smart thermostat; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.2% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D, employment D.
• Van Dyke Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #512 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 18 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.60%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $121,810
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12110 Belmont Ave	0.05mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (-3%)	4mo	$143,000	$157	85
23721 Wagner Ave	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	946 (+1%)	6mo	$137,000	$145	84
12036 Belmont Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+7%)	8mo	$142,500	$143	74
11811 Timken Ave	0.17mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,019 (+9%)	6mo	$80,000	$79	66
11108 Essex Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	946 (+1%)	0mo	$114,900	$121	62
11051 Timken Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+2%)	3mo	$125,000	$130	55
22803 Sharrow Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	972 (+4%)	7mo	$95,000	$98	52
11219 Maxwell Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	894 (-5%)	3mo	$116,000	$130	51
11276 Ocalla Dr	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,064 (+14%)	2mo	$163,000	$153	47
11259 Chapp Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0	814 (-13%)	4mo	$65,000	$80	47
11234 Essex Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0	800 (-15%)	4mo	$99,900	$125	44
11169 Ocalla Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (+14%)	2mo	$160,000	$150	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-9,087
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,337
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48089

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,565/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,095

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $183	+0% $150	+5% $118	+10% $85
Rent	-10% $49	-5% $99	+0% $150	+5% $201	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $208	-0.5pp $179	base $150	+0.5pp $120	+1.0pp $90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11331 Continental Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	765	$1,250	$1.63	25d	1	0.54mi
11359 Maxwell Ave Unit 11359 Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	4d	1	0.64mi
11130 Stephens Rd Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	0d	1	0.67mi
22852 Sharrow Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	5d	1	0.68mi
8716 Timken Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,400	$1.39	25d	1	0.78mi
25146 Wagner Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	906	$1,900	$2.10	25d	1	0.82mi
8707 Continental Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	5d	1	0.82mi
8707 Continental Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	968	$1,200	$1.24	18d	1	0.82mi
25108 Hoover Rd Warren, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	702	$1,324	$1.88	0d	61	0.82mi
11476 Warren Blvd Unit 114 Warren, MI	1.0	1.0	800	$1,125	$1.41	44d	1	0.84mi
8693 Paige Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	25d	1	0.85mi
11500 Warren Blvd Warren, MI	1.0	1.0	800	$1,125	$1.41	15d	1	0.87mi
11404 Warren Blvd Unit 102 Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	25d	1	0.88mi
8636 Republic Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	15d	1	0.88mi
11319 Chalmers Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	975	$1,500	$1.54	25d	1	0.92mi
11236 Studebaker Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	672	$1,175	$1.75	44d	1	0.93mi
11076 Hudson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	936	$1,395	$1.49	4d	1	0.95mi
8509 Paige Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	25d	1	0.96mi
13050 Couwlier Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	25d	1	1.00mi
21412 Waltham Rd Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	696	$1,225	$1.76	44d	1	1.00mi
8428 Timken Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	860	$1,250	$1.45	25d	1	1.01mi
8632 Studebaker Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	761	$1,300	$1.71	4d	1	1.13mi
8212 Timken Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	756	$1,320	$1.75	25d	1	1.15mi
8640 Chalmers Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	804	$1,423	$1.77	25d	1	1.16mi
8125 Timken Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	948	$1,270	$1.34	5d	1	1.19mi
8103 Lozier Ave Unit 2 Warren, MI	1.0	1.0	600	$650	$1.08	44d	1	1.21mi
11228 Sherman Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	13d	1	1.25mi
12846 Georgiana Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	912	$1,300	$1.43	25d	1	1.27mi
8251 Hudson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	908	$1,400	$1.54	25d	1	1.29mi
12807 Coleen Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,250	$1.16	25d	1	1.29mi
13501 Vernon Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	25d	1	1.33mi
20553 Hamburg St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1074	$1,300	$1.21	4d	1	1.38mi
8036 Hupp Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	680	$1,150	$1.69	44d	1	1.40mi
8162 Orchard Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	1.45mi
20296 Waltham St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	986	$1,300	$1.32	18d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 695-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    listed $115,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,565 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,565 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,565
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $22
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5
• After-tax cash flow: $1,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Dyke Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634680
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,231
• Composite: 10.46/100
• National rank: #9784
• State rank: #512 of 540 in MI

Livability — Warren

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4491

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, MI
• County: Macomb County · 638,552 people
• City population: 114,937
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 31,853
• Household income: $52,366
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1754.0

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 31% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.46%
• Current HPI: 154.8325
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+156.1% since first listed

44 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $115,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-31 Listed $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-12-05 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $123,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $123,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-04 Listed $124,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-04 Listed $124,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $108,500 Public Records
• 2022-07-21 Sold (MLS) $108,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-07-21 Sold (MLS) $108,500 REALCOMP
• 2022-07-06 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-07-06 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-07-01 Listed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-06-30 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-11-12 Sold (MLS) $33,900 REALCOMP
• 2019-10-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-10-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2019-10-10 Listed $37,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-10-10 Listed $37,500 REALCOMP
• 2017-04-24 Sold (MLS) $32,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-04-24 Sold (MLS) $32,000 REALCOMP
• 2017-03-08 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-03-08 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2017-02-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-02-20 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2017-02-06 Listed $40,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-02-06 Listed $40,000 REALCOMP
• 2013-04-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-10-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2012-10-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-07-03 Listed $23,000 REALCOMP
• 2012-07-03 Listed $23,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-07-03 Listed $23,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-01-14 Sold (MLS) $7,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-01-14 Sold (MLS) $7,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-12-22 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-12-09 Listed $9,900 REALCOMP
• 2009-12-09 Listed $9,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $65,835 Public Records
• 1996-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1996-06-04 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1996-05-20 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1996-04-21 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,565 · -23.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.