40 Dover Walk #540 · Toms River, NJ 08753

$164,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Condo public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition $168/sqft · at area comps Est $167k · at est. $341/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this clean and freshly painted 2-bedroom, 1-bath property, offering a spacious living/dining room perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary bedroom features two large closets. The second bedroom provides convenient back door access and a storage space, adding flexibility to the layout. A large stand-up attic with electric and a walk-in cedar closet offers excellent storage, and the brand new refrigerator adds a fresh touch to the kitchen. Located on a quiet street close to the Parkway and local stores, this home combines comfort, convenience, and charm. Grass enhanced. Virtual staging pictures are AI generated.

Key facts

• 1,306 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $341; HOA covers trash, lawn maintenance, and water

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium; Attached property
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Baseboard heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Blinds/Shades; Attic fan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Street Elementary School (math 14% / reading 35%, grade F, #878 of 1,303 statewide, top 70%, 739 students, 51% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School North (math 18% / reading 49%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Toms River High School North (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 399 statewide, top 53%, 1,931 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 22% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 435 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,524 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.72%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,597
• List price: $164,999
• Delta: -0.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,336
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $22,579
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,366 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,716/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$341
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,795

Max offer price $164,999

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $545	-5% $498	+0% $451	+5% $404	+10% $358
Rent	-10% $264	-5% $358	+0% $451	+5% $545	+10% $638
Rate	-1.0pp $534	-0.5pp $493	base $451	+0.5pp $408	+1.0pp $365

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1255 New Jersey 166 Unit D9 Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	940	$2,199	$2.34	45d	1	0.45mi
1255 New Jersey 166 Unit A4 Toms River, NJ	1.0	2.0	990	$2,045	$2.07	45d	1	0.45mi
1255 NJ-166 Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	940	$1,994	$2.12	45d	1	0.47mi
1255 NJ-166 Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	940	$2,199	$2.34	26d	1	0.47mi
3600 Cypress Point Dr Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1170	$2,964	$2.53	0d	17	0.69mi
30 Green View Way Toms River, NJ	1.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1450	$2,692	$1.86	0d	1	0.93mi
83 Walnut St Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	722	$1,800	$2.49	0d	2	1.17mi
802 Main St Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	782	$2,499	$3.20	0d	4	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $341 · $4,092/yr
• Likely covers: electric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $164,999 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $164,999 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $164,999 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $164,999 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $164,999 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-05-11
   listed $164,999 Active 651-char remark
7. 2026-05-10
   historical $164,999 651-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,716 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,912 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,196/yr (+$100/mo · 69.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,716
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,271
• − Management: −$2,271
• − HOA: −$4,092
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $3,175
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$762
• After-tax cash flow: $4,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 2-bedroom condo is move-in ready with fresh updates and a good condition score. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the clean, modern interior and well-maintained exterior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile flooring — Improves durability and adds value.
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile flooring — Improves durability and adds value. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 828.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $164,999 MOMLS
• 2026-05-10 Coming Soon $164,999 MOMLS

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,716 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.