14104 W County Rd 175 · Odessa, TX 79766

$280,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,868 sqft · Manufactured · 13 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition 1.00 ac lot $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

GORGEOUS 4 BED/2 BATH 2019 HOME WITH A HUGE DECK BUILT IN 2021! Midland County schools with bus access! One acre just outside the city! Quiet neighborhood with paved streets! You will love the stunning kitchen complete with an island! The main bedroom is spacious complete with a beautiful bathroom with his & hers sink and relaxing tub! This home has it all! MUST SEE!

Key facts

• Farmhouse style
• Spacious living area
• Functional layout

Tags

• FARMHOUSE STYLE
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $350 (about $29.17/month)

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Ice maker; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in bookcases; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Water softener; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $291 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jones El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 448 students, 69% FRL); Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,751 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.46%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $81,541
• Equity at exit: $157,123

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $231,016
• Equity at exit: $269,901

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79766

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,538 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,191/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,169

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $280,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $280,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $280,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $280,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 322-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $280,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,191 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,124 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,933/yr (+$328/mo · 330.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,191
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,436
• − Management: −$2,436
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$1,190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$286
• After-tax cash flow: $3,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home is in good condition with modern updates and a spacious layout. Simple exterior painting and gutter cleaning would further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 131,169
• Population (ZIP): 10,712

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% White 25% Two or more races 24% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 63%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.91%
• Current HPI: 222.3497
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+27.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $280,000 PBBOR
• 2022-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-29 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2022-03-01 Listed $220,000 ODMLS
• 2019-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,191 · -6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.