519 Highway 48 S · Centerville, TN 37033

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 918 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1959 1.00 ac lot $103/sqft · 40% below area Est $159k · 40% under ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Amazing growth opportunity! Connecting to Beaverdam Creek with approx an acre of land with most of it wooded but still plenty of yard to enjoy! 3 Bedroom, 1 bath house is a fixer-upper, but offers an excellent opportunity to get a house on a plot of land along a creek and State Hwy frontage! Lots of potential!

Key facts

• Acre of land
• Creek frontage
• Wooded yard

Tags

• ACRE OF LAND
• WOODED YARD
• CREEK FRONTAGE
• STATE HWY FRONTAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 918 square feet
• Financial info: No investor or rental income details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information listed

Exterior

• Parking: No covered or designated parking spaces listed
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank for sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Existing (previously built) structure
• Exterior features: Creek on the property; Approximately 1 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes oven and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Oven; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 1.9% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#62 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hickman County (rural): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #107 of 139 in TN (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Centerville Elementary (388 students, 0% FRL); Hickman Co Sr High School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 447 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Hickman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hickman County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.71%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,784
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -40.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
235 Brushy Rd	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,036 (+13%)	15mo	$199,900	$193	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-320
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $19,006
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37033

• Home prices YoY: -3.7%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,008 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $251/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $707

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $95,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $95,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $119,000 313-char remark
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $169,000 Active 313-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $251 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $674 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$424/yr (+$35/mo · 168.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$251
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$967
• − Management: −$967
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $1,346
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$323
• After-tax cash flow: $2,525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hickman County
• NCES district ID: 4701860
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,457
• Composite: 18.14/100
• National rank: #8966
• State rank: #107 of 139 in TN

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #8292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,656

Population outlook (Hickman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,337 people
• By 2030: 22,650 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 21,310 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 19,972 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 17,073 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 14,630 · -37.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 2% Scandinavian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.7pp toward R · 2008: -14.4pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+27.2 2008: R+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.37%
• Current HPI: 347.3616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-43.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $95,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $119,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $169,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $251 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.