2 Crescent Ave · Lakewood, NY 14750

$129,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 810 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1930 2,780 sqft lot Est $156k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Why pay rent? Looking for an investment? Starter home in Lakewood, feet from Chautauqua Lake. Three bedroom, one and a half baths. Appliances stay, first floor laundry and half bath. Needs some TLC, but solid with great potential. Feels larger than the square footage. Southwestern Schools. Covered front porch with views of the lake. Newer high efficient furnace and some newer windows. Call today for more information or to schedule a private showing. Community:Community beach, Community:Community library, Community:Community park(s),

Key facts

• New carpeting
• New exterior paint
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• NEW EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW CARPETING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• HALF BATH LAUNDRY COMBO
• COZY FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; Existing construction; Wood siding
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances negotiable; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate formal dining room; Separate formal living room; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $829 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 3.0% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#398 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Southwestern Central School District At Jamestown (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #373 of 590 in NY (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $130k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $127,951 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.34%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,330
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 E Terrace Ave	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	813 (+0%)	24mo	$126,500	$156	60
168 E Terrace Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (+11%)	21mo	$210,000	$233	52
19 Southland Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	908 (+12%)	20mo	$175,000	$193	52
214 Elmcrest Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	738 (-9%)	8mo	$113,000	$153	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $31,763
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $95,775
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14750

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,089/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $829

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,151

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3779 Heineman Rd Bemus Point, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	43d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 455-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $129,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,089 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,142 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$53/yr (+$4/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,089
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $8,382
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,012
• After-tax cash flow: $7,931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwestern Central School District At Jamestown
• NCES district ID: 3627660
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $50,567
• Composite: 43.21/100
• National rank: #3062
• State rank: #373 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #6904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,411

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.43%
• Current HPI: 318.8566
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+141.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $129,900 UNYREIS
• 2017-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 2017-05-31 Sold (MLS) $42,500 UNYREIS
• 2017-03-26 Listed $47,900 UNYREIS
• 2014-08-28 Sold (MLS) $45,000 UNYREIS
• 2014-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-04 Listed $49,500 UNYREIS
• 2007-07-16 Listed $53,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,089 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.