10 Carter Rd · Van Alstyne, TX 75495

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1975 0.27 ac lot $153/sqft · 31% below area Est $334k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

24 hours notice before showings please. Beautifully maintained single family residence situated on a spacious .27-acre corner lot in the sought-after Umphress Park Addition of Van Alstyne. This inviting home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with approximately 1,500 sq. ft. of living space, designed for comfortable everyday living. The former garage has been thoughtfully converted into a generous master suite and bath, providing added space and convenience, with a large pantry area that can be used as an additional master closet. Interior finishes include a mix of carpet, ceramic tile, laminate, and vinyl flooring, and the home offers modern amenities such as central air conditioning, electric appliances, and high-speed internet capability. Outside, enjoy established shade trees, outdoor storage, and a covered 2 car carport with additional storage space, perfect for hobbies or tools. Located close to local schools in the Van Alstyne Independent School District, this property combines practical upgrades, outdoor space, and comfortable living in a quiet neighborhood. - Any information used to advertise this listing is speculative in nature we make no guarantee or warranty regarding the information contained. Br0ker, agnt & seller expressly disclaim any warranty with respect to the accuracy of the submission items. Buyer & buyer’s agnt acknowledges they are relying on their own investigation & should perform a detailed independent analysis of the property to determine if it meets your satisfaction & accuracy of MLS data fields. Robinson Capital Real Estate, LLC will not be held liable for any MLS system errors and or discrepancies. Robinson Capital Real Estate, LLC 2025.

Key facts

• Outdoor storage
• Large pantry area
• Covered carport

Tags

• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• MASTER SUITE AND BATH
• LARGE PANTRY AREA
• ESTABLISHED SHADE TREES
• COVERED CARPORT
• OUTDOOR STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.7% in Van Alstyne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#134 in TX, #3,950 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Van Alstyne ISD (rural): math 62% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #51 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 624 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.89%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $334,241
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -31.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 Carter Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+5%)	11mo	$299,900	$191	81
14391 US Highway 75	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+14%)	9mo	$450,000	$262	55
293 Redden Rd	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,303 (-13%)	4mo	$310,000	$238	35
1300 Benwick Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,720 (+15%)	17mo	$320,000	$186	28
960 Billups	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+14%)	24mo	$349,990	$204	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-30,598
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-18,044
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75495

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Active inventory: 624
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,224 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$360 /mo · $4,320/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,097

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
524 Hickory Ridge Dr Van Alstyne, TX	4.0	2.0	2213	$2,300	$1.04	18d	1	0.50mi
509 Brook View Dr Van Alstyne, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$2,350	$1.31	12d	1	0.59mi
933 Ravenwood Ln Van Alstyne, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,099	$1.10	43d	1	0.82mi
920 Ravenwood Ln Van Alstyne, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,895	$1.21	18d	1	0.82mi
712 Billups Cir Van Alstyne, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,950	$1.31	11d	1	0.89mi
1005 Stanridge Ln Van Alstyne, TX	4.0	2.0	1942	$2,250	$1.16	12d	1	0.99mi
417 Vawter Dr Van Alstyne, TX	4.0	2.0	1816	$2,199	$1.21	18d	1	1.30mi
1817 Horseshoe Ln Van Alstyne, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$2,100	$1.33	11d	1	1.42mi
525 Gilcrease Van Alstyne, TX	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,895	$1.57	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $229,000 1728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1728 chars)

    24 hours notice before showings please. Beautifully maintained single family residence situated on a spacious .27-acre corner lot in the sought-after Umphress Park Addition of Van Alstyne. This inviting home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with approximately 1,500 sq. ft. of living space, designed for comfortable everyday living. The former garage has been thoughtfully converted into a generous master suite and bath, providing added space and convenience, with a large pantry area that can be used as an additional master closet. Interior finishes include a mix of carpet, ceramic tile, laminate, and vinyl flooring, and the home offers modern amenities such as central air conditioning, electric appliances, and high-speed internet capability. Outside, enjoy established shade trees, outdoor storage, and a covered 2 car carport with additional storage space, perfect for hobbies or tools. Located close to local schools in the Van Alstyne Independent School District, this property combines practical upgrades, outdoor space, and comfortable living in a quiet neighborhood. - Any information used to advertise this listing is speculative in nature we make no guarantee or warranty regarding the information contained. Br0ker, agnt & seller expressly disclaim any warranty with respect to the accuracy of the submission items. Buyer & buyer’s agnt acknowledges they are relying on their own investigation & should perform a detailed independent analysis of the property to determine if it meets your satisfaction & accuracy of MLS data fields. Robinson Capital Real Estate, LLC will not be held liable for any MLS system errors and or discrepancies. Robinson Capital Real Estate, LLC 2025.

16. 2026-04-08
    listed $269,999 Active 1728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1728 chars)

    24 hours notice before showings please. Beautifully maintained single family residence situated on a spacious .27-acre corner lot in the sought-after Umphress Park Addition of Van Alstyne. This inviting home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with approximately 1,500 sq. ft. of living space, designed for comfortable everyday living. The former garage has been thoughtfully converted into a generous master suite and bath, providing added space and convenience, with a large pantry area that can be used as an additional master closet. Interior finishes include a mix of carpet, ceramic tile, laminate, and vinyl flooring, and the home offers modern amenities such as central air conditioning, electric appliances, and high-speed internet capability. Outside, enjoy established shade trees, outdoor storage, and a covered 2 car carport with additional storage space, perfect for hobbies or tools. Located close to local schools in the Van Alstyne Independent School District, this property combines practical upgrades, outdoor space, and comfortable living in a quiet neighborhood. - Any information used to advertise this listing is speculative in nature we make no guarantee or warranty regarding the information contained. Br0ker, agnt & seller expressly disclaim any warranty with respect to the accuracy of the submission items. Buyer & buyer’s agnt acknowledges they are relying on their own investigation & should perform a detailed independent analysis of the property to determine if it meets your satisfaction & accuracy of MLS data fields. Robinson Capital Real Estate, LLC will not be held liable for any MLS system errors and or discrepancies. Robinson Capital Real Estate, LLC 2025.

17. 2026-04-01
    historical
18. 2026-03-04
    price $285,000
19. 2026-02-05
    listed $295,000 Active
20. 2020-07-20
    soldstatus
21. 2020-07-15
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2020-06-08
    status Pending
23. 2020-05-26
    listed $190,000 Active
24. 2003-05-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,320 · $360/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,320 · $360/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$4,320
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,135
• − Management: −$2,135
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$2,532
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$608
• After-tax cash flow: $1,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Alstyne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843890
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $68,451
• Composite: 53.28/100
• National rank: #1491
• State rank: #51 of 826 in TX

Livability — Van Alstyne

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #3950

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 11,120
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,120
• Household income: $111,563
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 93.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.06%
• Current HPI: 274.6361
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+20.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $229,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $269,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $295,000 NTREIS
• 2020-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-06-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-05-26 Listed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2003-05-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,320 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.