4710 Cherokee Dr · Midland, TX 79703

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1959 7,405 sqft lot $141/sqft · at area comps Est $157k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great diamond in the rough !!! 3 bedroom 1 bath will look at offers home to be sold as is !! has great 2 car garage 2 storage buildings nice location.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1959

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,600 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.79%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,087
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: 1.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4626 Wilshire Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,166 (+3%)	8mo	$160,000	$137	58
4210 Pleasant Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,259 (+11%)	15mo	$160,000	$127	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,204
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $16,156
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79703

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,936 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,756/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,332

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5109 Graceland Dr Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,250	$1.65	43d	1	0.53mi
3712 Amelia Dr Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1046	$2,000	$1.91	21d	1	0.98mi
4409 Roosevelt Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,750	$1.42	44d	1	0.99mi
1811 Tradewinds Blvd Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$1,617	$1.60	43d	1	1.00mi
117 N Glenwood Dr Unit D Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	21d	1	1.03mi
4707 Shadylane Dr Unit B Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	960	$1,400	$1.46	13d	1	1.05mi
123 N Glenwood Dr Unit A Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	43d	1	1.06mi
1808 Tradewinds Blvd Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1126	$2,078	$1.84	13d	13	1.10mi
3811 Cedar Spring Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	43d	1	1.12mi
4701 W Illinois Ave Unit D Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	942	$1,050	$1.11	21d	1	1.13mi
4610 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,899	$1.60	21d	1	1.27mi
3506 Apache Dr Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	1004	$1,800	$1.79	21d	1	1.28mi
4506 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	13d	1	1.33mi
5202 Ric Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,975	$1.57	21d	1	1.34mi
4000 W Illinois Ave Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	755	$1,545	$2.05	21d	10	1.36mi
516 North Loop 250 W Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,724	$2.28	13d	28	1.41mi
4525 Crockett Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$4,250	$3.04	21d	1	1.41mi
4519 Crockett Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1465	$1,900	$1.30	21d	1	1.42mi
4503 Crockett Ave Unit B Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	43d	1	1.43mi
4405 Crockett Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	43d	1	1.45mi
4719 Bowie Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	991	$4,500	$4.54	21d	1	1.45mi
4403 Crockett Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1065	$1,800	$1.69	21d	1	1.46mi
509 Delmar St Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1116	$1,796	$1.61	13d	8	1.46mi
4313 Storey Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    price $160,000 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    Great diamond in the rough !!! 3 bedroom 1 bath will look at offers home to be sold as is !! has great 2 car garage 2 storage buildings nice location.

18. 2026-03-12
    listed $168,000 Active 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    Great diamond in the rough !!! 3 bedroom 1 bath will look at offers home to be sold as is !! has great 2 car garage 2 storage buildings nice location.

19. 2026-03-10
    listed $168,000 Active 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    Diamond in the rough great 3 Bedroom 1 bath 2 car garage and 2 storage sheds will look at offers please call Stormy Self 432-235-2238 for all showings and combo code

20. 1998-07-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,756 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,172/yr (+$98/mo · 66.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,756
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,858
• − Management: −$1,858
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $3,341
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$802
• After-tax cash flow: $4,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,419
• Household income: $77,285
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 417.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 34% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 38% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.72%
• Current HPI: 224.6222
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.33%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $160,000 ODMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $168,000 ODMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $168,000 PBBOR
• 1998-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,756 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.