3074 E Atherton Rd · Burton, MI 48529

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 752 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1937 5,227 sqft lot Est $77k · 10% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter or investment property. Features 2 bedrooms, applianced kitchen, basement, attached garage, and fenced back yard. Updated well and windows. The driveway is off Ludwig St. Needs some paint and floor coverings.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Updated windows
• Applianced kitchen

Tags

• APPLIANCED KITCHEN
• FENCED BACK YARD
• UPDATED WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1.5 garage spaces)
• Utilities: Private well water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 50 x 108 (0.12 acres); Public sewer; Private well water

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No cooling
• Interior features: Window treatments; Sump pump in basement; Water softener owned
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.8% in Burton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#555 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Atherton Community Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #481 of 540 in MI (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 18 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.14%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,456
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3129 Shaw St	0.24mi	2/1.0	768 (+2%)	2mo	$50,315	$66	84
3135 Shaw St	0.24mi	2/1.5	770 (+2%)	17mo	$110,000	$143	68
3272 Sayre Ct	0.51mi	2/1.0	768 (+2%)	8mo	$90,000	$117	66
3102 Ludwig St	0.18mi	2/1.0	644 (-14%)	10mo	$59,900	$93	60
3313 Lockhead St	0.52mi	2/1.0	730 (-3%)	14mo	$75,000	$103	59
3200 Myrton St	0.37mi	2/1.0	672 (-11%)	9mo	$91,000	$135	58
3188 E Hemphill Rd	0.54mi	2/1.0	831 (+10%)	5mo	$28,000	$34	53
602 Buckingham Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	798 (+6%)	9mo	$39,000	$49	53
621 Lochhead Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	680 (-10%)	4mo	$72,000	$106	51
3259 Berent St	0.68mi	2/1.0	720 (-4%)	22mo	$98,000	$136	43
2385 Christner St	0.65mi	2/1.0	832 (+11%)	14mo	$32,500	$39	40
634 Mckeighan Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0	672 (-11%)	13mo	$47,000	$70	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $5,488
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $26,563
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48529

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,012 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,689/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $679

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $303	-5% $283	+0% $263	+5% $243	+10% $224
Rent	-10% $183	-5% $223	+0% $263	+5% $303	+10% $343
Rate	-1.0pp $298	-0.5pp $281	base $263	+0.5pp $245	+1.0pp $227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1034 McKeighan Ave Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,250	$1.20	21d	1	0.45mi
132 Pine Blf Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$953	$0.99	44d	1	0.51mi
3291 Glengary St Burton, MI	2.0	1.0	972	$1,075	$1.11	44d	1	0.77mi
2266 Donovan St Burton, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	14d	1	1.04mi
3807 Lippincott Blvd Apt 17 Flint, MI	1.0	1.0	600	$750	$1.25	14d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 223-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $69,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,689 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,689 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,689
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$972
• − Management: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $2,216
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$532
• After-tax cash flow: $2,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Atherton Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603540
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,416
• Composite: 15.21/100
• National rank: #9341
• State rank: #481 of 540 in MI

Livability — Burton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #17380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burton, MI
• City population: 26,014
• Population (ZIP): 8,959

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.30%
• Current HPI: 228.5338
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

41 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-09-15 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-09-15 Sold (MLS) $50,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-06-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-06-15 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-05-21 Listed $48,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-05-21 Listed $48,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-05-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-05-19 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-04-12 Price Changed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-04-12 Price Changed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-03-01 Listed $52,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-03-01 Listed $52,900 REALCOMP
• 2010-12-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2010-12-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2003-01-27 Sold (MLS) $31,400 REALCOMP
• 2003-01-27 Sold (MLS) $31,400 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-12-16 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-12-06 Listed $34,000 REALCOMP
• 2002-12-06 Listed $34,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records
• 2000-09-19 Sold (MLS) $48,500 REALCOMP
• 2000-09-19 Sold (MLS) $48,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-08-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-05-22 Listed $55,000 REALCOMP
• 2000-05-22 Listed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1999-09-16 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1999-03-16 Listed $49,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1999-03-16 Listed $49,000 REALCOMP
• 1998-10-01 Listed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1998-10-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1998-10-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 1998-10-01 Listed $55,000 REALCOMP
• 1998-07-31 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 1998-07-31 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1997-08-18 Listed $60,000 REALCOMP
• 1997-08-18 Listed $60,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1997-07-31 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1996-08-05 Listed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1996-08-05 Listed $99,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,689 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.