423 Herndon Ave · Tyler, TX 75702

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 168 Days on market

Built 1936 $53/sqft · 60% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ATTENTION. ATTENTION. All properties are being sold together as one package for a total list price of $310,000. This is a unique chance to acquire a diversified portfolio with multiple revenue streams in one transaction. It includes a 4-plex with 1/1, a single-family home with 3/1, a storage building, a vacant lot and a duplex with 1/1. It is part of MLS 26000091. Package list price is $310,000. Call for more information.

Key facts

• Built 1936
• Listed 167 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $658 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime D+.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.28%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,948
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -60.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1312 W Connally St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-3%)	3mo	$185,000	$144	68
1011 S Chilton Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,467 (+10%)	2mo	$324,900	$221	42
1523 W Lollar St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,381 (+4%)	24mo	$45,000	$33	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $29,518
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $75,457
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75702

• Home prices YoY: -5.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,474 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,323/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $658

Break-even live

Break-even rent $641

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $697	-5% $678	+0% $658	+5% $638	+10% $618
Rent	-10% $541	-5% $600	+0% $658	+5% $716	+10% $774
Rate	-1.0pp $693	-0.5pp $676	base $658	+0.5pp $640	+1.0pp $621

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1104 W Park St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	21d	1	0.10mi
539 Williams Ct Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1352	$1,415	$1.05	21d	1	0.24mi
526 S Bonner Ave Apt 4 Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,175	$1.05	21d	1	0.45mi
522 W Dobbs St Tyler, TX	3.0	1.0	1127	$1,395	$1.24	14d	1	0.62mi
431 S College Ave Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1380	$1,650	$1.20	21d	1	0.62mi
431 S College Ave Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1380	$1,750	$1.27	44d	1	0.62mi
507 W Shaw St Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1005	$1,250	$1.24	14d	1	0.75mi
1800 W Oakwood St Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	21d	1	0.76mi
1500 Mockingbird Ln Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,230	$1.13	44d	1	0.76mi
1806 W Oakwood St Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	21d	1	0.76mi
1115 S Robertson Ave Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1366	$1,550	$1.13	14d	1	0.77mi
1822 W Oakwood St Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	0.79mi
611 N Border Ave Unit 300 Tyler, TX	2.0	1.5	1008	$1,200	$1.19	44d	1	0.83mi
2006 W Oakwood St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,895	$1.41	14d	1	0.85mi
720 N Englewood Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	1.0	1856	$1,650	$0.89	44d	1	0.85mi
714 W Bow St Unit B Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	969	$785	$0.81	14d	1	0.87mi
328 Mockingbird Ln Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$950	$0.79	14d	1	0.88mi
132 Rowland Pl Unit b Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1170	$1,295	$1.11	21d	1	0.91mi
1215 S Lenox St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,264	$1.16	44d	1	0.94mi
1655 S Kennedy Ave Tyler, TX	2.0	2.5	1174	$1,595	$1.36	44d	1	1.03mi
1655 S Kennedy Ave Unit 203 Tyler, TX	2.0	2.5	1174	$1,650	$1.41	44d	1	1.03mi
902 W 5th St Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1369	$1,200	$0.88	14d	1	1.08mi
305 E Lake St Tyler, TX	2.0	1.5	1287	$1,695	$1.32	14d	1	1.09mi
420 E Dodge St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	940	$950	$1.01	14d	1	1.10mi
711 W 6th St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1854	$1,850	$1.00	14d	1	1.13mi
908 W 6th St Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1112	$1,300	$1.17	14d	1	1.14mi
425 E Oakwood St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,540	$1.19	44d	1	1.14mi
1403 S Donnybrook Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	3.0	1834	$2,150	$1.17	44d	1	1.22mi
2717 W Shaw St Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$1,200	$1.22	21d	1	1.23mi
2803 W Shaw St Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	21d	1	1.24mi
2815 W Shaw St Unit 2 Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$1,200	$1.37	44d	1	1.26mi
324 S Saunders Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,100	$1.27	44d	1	1.37mi
1523 N Englewood Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,650	$1.07	44d	1	1.37mi
3111 W Jackson St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,564	$1.52	44d	1	1.39mi
809 W Harmony St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,500	$1.15	44d	1	1.40mi
826 W Franklin St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,550	$1.22	14d	1	1.41mi
1538 N Hill Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1813	$1,650	$0.91	21d	1	1.43mi
1618 N Tenneha Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	1.0	1587	$1,400	$0.88	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 149 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 148 DOM
17. 2026-01-02
    listed $70,000 Active 425-char remark

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    ATTENTION. ATTENTION. All properties are being sold together as one package for a total list price of $310,000. This is a unique chance to acquire a diversified portfolio with multiple revenue streams in one transaction. It includes a 4-plex with 1/1, a single-family home with 3/1, a storage building, a vacant lot and a duplex with 1/1. It is part of MLS 26000091. Package list price is $310,000. Call for more information.

18. 2002-10-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,323 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,323 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,323
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,415
• − Management: −$1,415
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $7,226
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,734
• After-tax cash flow: $6,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tyler ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,090
• Composite: 32.69/100
• National rank: #5650
• State rank: #449 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tyler

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #4181

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tyler, TX
• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 127,842
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,927
• Household income: $51,564
• Rent vs Own: 47.1% rent · 52.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Black 37% White 12% Two or more races 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.63%
• Current HPI: 207.1573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.27%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-02 Listed $70,000 GTAR
• 2002-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,323 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.