6520 Tammy Ln · Mechanicsville, VA 23111

$299,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1984 0.34 ac lot $212/sqft · 20% below area Est $343k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 bath Cape located in High Point Farms.

Key facts

• Large yard
• Cape style home
• Vinyl siding

Tags

• CAPE STYLE HOME
• CORNER LOT
• VINYL SIDING
• LARGE YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story (1 story); Frame construction with vinyl siding; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,296
• Construction: Built (year type listed as Actual)
• Exterior features: R2 zoning

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on first level, one on second level) with tub and shower in each
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat pump; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Resale condition; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-110/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.1% in Mechanicsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#165 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hanover County Public School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #5 of 131 in VA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 447 units permitted in Hanover County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hanover County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,405 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,818
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -12.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7059 Poteet Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (+1%)	2mo	$375,000	$263	70
7077 Adaline Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,512 (+7%)	9mo	$350,000	$231	70
6423 Chenault Way	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,319 (-6%)	7mo	$350,000	$265	67
6402 Sledds Lake Rd	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,320 (-6%)	9mo	$325,000	$246	65
6405 Selby Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,296 (-8%)	13mo	$375,000	$289	65
6467 Luther Bosher Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,512 (+7%)	10mo	$360,000	$238	62
7005 Brooking Way	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+7%)	13mo	$375,000	$248	61
7097 Bonniefield Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+3%)	5mo	$402,500	$276	58
6466 Birch Tree Trce	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-8%)	8mo	$340,000	$262	56
7107 Brooking Way	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-8%)	8mo	$350,000	$269	52
6327 Draperfield Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-15%)	9mo	$340,000	$283	37
6318 Sledds Lake Rd	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,216 (-14%)	6mo	$366,500	$301	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-49,106
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-43,801
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23111

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,384 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,396

Max offer price $297,379

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7264 Cold Harbor Rd Mechanicsville, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1160	$1,799	$1.55	1d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $299,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-05-13
   price $299,000 171-char remark
5. 2026-05-08
   listed $309,000 Active 171-char remark
6. 2007-11-16
   soldstatus $204,950 60-char remark

   Show marketing remark (60 chars)

   Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 bath Cape located in High Point Farms.

7. 2007-11-16
   soldstatus $204,950

   Show marketing remark (60 chars)

   Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 bath Cape located in High Point Farms.

8. 2007-10-05
   listed $204,950 60-char remark

   Show marketing remark (60 chars)

   Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 bath Cape located in High Point Farms.

9. 2007-10-05
   listed $204,950

   Show marketing remark (60 chars)

   Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 bath Cape located in High Point Farms.

10. 2005-08-31
    soldstatus $188,900
11. 2005-08-30
    soldstatus $188,900
12. 2005-08-30
    soldstatus $188,900
13. 2005-04-25
    listed $188,900
14. 2005-04-25
    listed $188,900
15. 2004-09-23
    soldstatus $154,950
16. 2004-09-01
    soldstatus $188,900
17. 2004-09-01
    soldstatus $188,900
18. 2004-07-13
    listed $154,950
19. 2004-07-13
    listed $154,950
20. 1989-11-01
    soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,400 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,452 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$52/yr (+$4/mo · 2.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,289
• − Management: −$2,289
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$5,311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,275
• After-tax cash flow: $1,164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hanover County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101830
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,386
• Composite: 70.37/100
• National rank: #268
• State rank: #5 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mechanicsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #5098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mechanicsville, VA
• County: Hanover County · 134,767 people
• City population: 72,258
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,070
• Household income: $98,969
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (Hanover County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,687 people
• By 2030: 115,373 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 120,828 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 123,591 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 132,168 · +18.3%
• By 2100: 130,105 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hanover

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 36.6% · R 62.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.8pp toward D · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+26.8 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.34%
• Current HPI: 253.858
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+367.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $299,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $309,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-11-16 Sold (MLS) $204,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-11-16 Sold (MLS) $204,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-10-05 Listed $204,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-10-05 Listed $204,950 CVRMLS
• 2005-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $188,900 Public Records
• 2005-08-30 Sold (MLS) $188,900 CVRMLS
• 2005-08-30 Sold (MLS) $188,900 CVRMLS
• 2005-04-25 Listed $188,900 CVRMLS
• 2005-04-25 Listed $188,900 CVRMLS
• 2004-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $154,950 Public Records
• 2004-09-01 Sold (MLS) $188,900 CVRMLS
• 2004-09-01 Sold (MLS) $188,900 CVRMLS
• 2004-07-13 Listed $154,950 CVRMLS
• 2004-07-13 Listed $154,950 CVRMLS
• 1989-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,400 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.