12223 Shield Crest Ct · Cut and Shoot, TX 77378

$138,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · Land · 121 Days on market

Built 2026 2,962 sqft lot $170/sqft · 12% below area Est $157k · 12% under $50/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CHARMING NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN CASTLE'S EDGE! Welcoming Curb Appeal with Covered Front Porch! Excellent Split Plan Layout! Large Living Area is Open to Kitchen with Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, & Pantry! Two Beautiful Bedrooms with Plenty of Natural Light! Zoned to Willis ISD! Castle's Edge offers easy access to the nearby cities of Conroe and Willis with great dining and shopping options minutes away from home! Hurry and Call Today!

Key facts

• 2,962 sq ft lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 121 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $960 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $122,311 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.86%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,078
• List price: $138,990
• Delta: -11.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-11,163
• Equity at exit: $20,724

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,576
• Equity at exit: $12,017

Cash invested: $38,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,402 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $583/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,121

Max offer price $138,990

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,748
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,990 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,990 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,990 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,990 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $138,990 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $138,990 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $138,990 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $138,990 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $138,990 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $138,990 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $138,990 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $138,990 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,990 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,990 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    status Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    CHARMING NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN CASTLE'S EDGE! Welcoming Curb Appeal with Covered Front Porch! Excellent Split Plan Layout! Large Living Area is Open to Kitchen with Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, & Pantry! Two Beautiful Bedrooms with Plenty of Natural Light! Zoned to Willis ISD! Castle's Edge offers easy access to the nearby cities of Conroe and Willis with great dining and shopping options minutes away from home! Hurry and Call Today!

16. 2026-05-04
    historical Active Under Contract 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    CHARMING NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN CASTLE'S EDGE! Welcoming Curb Appeal with Covered Front Porch! Excellent Split Plan Layout! Large Living Area is Open to Kitchen with Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, & Pantry! Two Beautiful Bedrooms with Plenty of Natural Light! Zoned to Willis ISD! Castle's Edge offers easy access to the nearby cities of Conroe and Willis with great dining and shopping options minutes away from home! Hurry and Call Today!

17. 2026-04-29
    price $144,990 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    CHARMING NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN CASTLE'S EDGE! Welcoming Curb Appeal with Covered Front Porch! Excellent Split Plan Layout! Large Living Area is Open to Kitchen with Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, & Pantry! Two Beautiful Bedrooms with Plenty of Natural Light! Zoned to Willis ISD! Castle's Edge offers easy access to the nearby cities of Conroe and Willis with great dining and shopping options minutes away from home! Hurry and Call Today!

18. 2026-04-20
    status Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    CHARMING NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN CASTLE'S EDGE! Welcoming Curb Appeal with Covered Front Porch! Excellent Split Plan Layout! Large Living Area is Open to Kitchen with Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, & Pantry! Two Beautiful Bedrooms with Plenty of Natural Light! Zoned to Willis ISD! Castle's Edge offers easy access to the nearby cities of Conroe and Willis with great dining and shopping options minutes away from home! Hurry and Call Today!

19. 2026-03-26
    historical Active Under Contract 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    CHARMING NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN CASTLE'S EDGE! Welcoming Curb Appeal with Covered Front Porch! Excellent Split Plan Layout! Large Living Area is Open to Kitchen with Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, & Pantry! Two Beautiful Bedrooms with Plenty of Natural Light! Zoned to Willis ISD! Castle's Edge offers easy access to the nearby cities of Conroe and Willis with great dining and shopping options minutes away from home! Hurry and Call Today!

20. 2026-02-19
    price $149,990 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    CHARMING NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN CASTLE'S EDGE! Welcoming Curb Appeal with Covered Front Porch! Excellent Split Plan Layout! Large Living Area is Open to Kitchen with Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, & Pantry! Two Beautiful Bedrooms with Plenty of Natural Light! Zoned to Willis ISD! Castle's Edge offers easy access to the nearby cities of Conroe and Willis with great dining and shopping options minutes away from home! Hurry and Call Today!

21. 2026-02-17
    listed $152,990 Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    CHARMING NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN CASTLE'S EDGE! Welcoming Curb Appeal with Covered Front Porch! Excellent Split Plan Layout! Large Living Area is Open to Kitchen with Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, & Pantry! Two Beautiful Bedrooms with Plenty of Natural Light! Zoned to Willis ISD! Castle's Edge offers easy access to the nearby cities of Conroe and Willis with great dining and shopping options minutes away from home! Hurry and Call Today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $583 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,961/yr (+$163/mo · 336.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$583
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,346
• − Management: −$1,346
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$4,043
• Taxable income: $430
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$103
• After-tax cash flow: $2,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $144,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $149,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $152,990 HARMLS