1283 Poplar Dr · Arcata, CA 95521

$119,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 756 sqft · Manufactured · 253 Days on market

Built 1973 ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Entered for comp purposes only. This newly renovated inside and out corner unit is a two bedroom 2 bath single wide home located in a desirable Arcata family park.

Key facts

• Low maintenance yard
• Hardi plank siding
• Large corner lot

Tags

• NEWLY RENOVATED HOME
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• NEWER ROOF
• HARDI PLANK SIDING
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD
• LARGE CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a corner within the park; cross street Spruce
• Financial info: Not specified
• HOA & community: Located in Valley West mobile home park; Mobile home make: Clayton, model 2712

Exterior

• Parking: Enter park to access home (located last on the corner)
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Not specified
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Concrete construction
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Range hood
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: Not specified
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Five total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 1.9% in Arcata — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#275 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: housing C-, crime D-, commute F.
• Pacific Union Elementary (town): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #560 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $105,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.97%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $9,663
• Equity at exit: $17,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $71,169
• Equity at exit: $10,332

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95521

• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,792/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,045

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,500 Active 253 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,500 Active 252 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,500 Active 251 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,500 Active 250 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,500 Active 249 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,500 Active 247 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,500 Active 246 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,500 Active 244 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,500 Active 243 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,500 Active 242 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,500 Active 241 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,500 Active 238 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,500 Active 237 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,500 Active 236 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 235 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,500 Active 234 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥72°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$1,792
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,409
• − Management: −$1,409
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable income: $2,234
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$536
• After-tax cash flow: $3,467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pacific Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629430
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,146
• Composite: 41.08/100
• National rank: #7442
• State rank: #560 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Arcata

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #9258

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment F Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arcata, CA
• County: Humboldt County · 88,652 people
• City population: 21,980
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,980
• Household income: $53,114
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2139.0

Population outlook (Humboldt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,550 people
• By 2030: 134,798 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 132,222 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 130,850 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 128,656 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 120,238 · -11.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Russian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Humboldt

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.4) · D 62.0% · R 33.6% · Other 4.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.4 2020: D+33.4 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+26.2 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -373.51%
• Current HPI: 208.5938
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.08%
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Relisted — HAR
• 2026-01-23 Relisted — HAR
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $119,500 HAR
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $134,900 HAR
• 2025-09-02 Relisted — HAR
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $137,900 HAR
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $139,900 HAR
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $140,000 HAR
• 2025-04-07 Listed $143,000 HAR
• 2021-12-03 Sold (MLS) $135,500 HAR
• 2021-12-02 Listed $139,000 HAR